Wed, Jun 29, 2022 @ 15:04 GMT
HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisEUR/USD Grinds Higher ahead of EU GDP and US Retail Sales

EUR/USD Grinds Higher ahead of EU GDP and US Retail Sales

EUR/USD is a pair to watch today, given the line-up of GDP and employment for Europe, retail sales for the US and Jerome Powell speaking.

Asian Indices:

  • Australia’s ASX 200 index rose by 13.8 points (0.19%) and currently trades at 7,106.80
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has risen by 87.79 points (0.33%) and currently trades at 26,634.84
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has risen by 445.45 points (2.23%) and currently trades at 20,395.66
  • China’s A50 Index has risen by 145.55 points (1.11%) and currently trades at 13,304.88

UK and Europe:

  • UK’s FTSE 100 futures are currently up 27.5 points (0.37%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,492.30
  • Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 29 points (0.79%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 3,714.34
  • Germany’s DAX futures are currently up 113 points (0.81%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 14,077.38

US Futures:

  • DJI futures are currently up 74 points (0.23%)
  • S&P 500 futures are currently up 75 points (0.61%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are currently up 14.25 points (0.36%)

Sentiment improved overnight as investors absorbed the positive headlines surrounding Shanghai scaling back their lockdown restrictions. The Hang Seng and HSCE were top performers and rose ~2.5%.

The RBA minutes revealed that the board discussed 15, 25 and 40-bps hike at their last meeting and hinted that a 40-bps hike could be on the cards given the high levels of inflation and strong employment situation. AUD and NZD were the strongest majors and JPY was the weakest during a mild risk-on session.

Jerome Powell is set to speak at 19:00 GMT, so traders will be seeking further clarification for futures rate hikes. US data includes retail sales at 13:30 an industrial production at 14:15. But first we have flash GDP and employment data from the Eurozone at 10:00, which makes EUR/USD an ideal pair to monitor this session.

EUR/USD (4-hour): Grinding higher towards resistance

The strong downtrend on EUR/USD stabilised above the 2017 low after some ECB members have called for up to three rate hikes. But markets need to hear hawkish comments from the ultra-dovish ECB President, Christine Lagarde. She speaks four times this week at G7 meetings, and Jerome also Powell speaks tonight – which leaves plenty of opportunity for volatility on the euro.

EUR/USD is grinding higher on the 4-hour chart, although price action appears to be corrective. Our bias remains bearish beneath 1.0500 and we’re looking for evidence of a swing high around the 1.0450/68 or 1.0489 – 1.0500 resistance zones. Our downside target is the 1.0300 – 1.0340 support zone.

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