EUR/USD – Potential push down towards minor range support
The pair pushed up at the start of yesterday, 17 Sep U.S. session to test the 1.1070 key short-term pivotal resistance before it stalled and traded in tight range of 18 pips ahead of today’s FOMC decision (click here for a recap on our previous report).
Overall, the short-term price action of the pair seems to be evolving into a minor corrective “ascending range” configuration since 03 Sep 2019 within a major descending channel in place since 10 Jan 2019. Adjusted the key short-term pivotal resistance to 1.1110 (the upper limit of the minor ascending range) for a potential push down towards 1.1000 follow by the ascending range support of 1.0950. On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.1110 invalidates the push down scenario for a squeeze up towards the key medium-term resistance of 1.1170/1200 (also the upper boundary of the descending channel from 10 Jan 2019).
GBP/USD – Elements remain bearish below key resistance
The pair has pushed up and staged a challenge on the 1.2510 key short-term pivotal resistance before it retreated. Elements remain negative with a bearish divergence signal seen in the 1-hour RSI oscillator at its extreme overbought level coupled with the short-term price action of the pair that is evolving within a minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” reversal configuration in place since 12 Sep 2019 low.
Maintain bearish bias with an adjusted pivotal resistance at 1.2570/2585 (also the former major ascending support from 07 Oct 2016 low) to take into account of a higher volatile environment in today’s FOMC decision. A break below 1.2420 reinforces the start of downleg sequence to target the 1.2290 near-term support in the first step.
On the other hand, a clearance with a daily close above 1.2585 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next resistance at 1.2680.
USD/JPY – Residual push up towards key resistance
The pair has continued to inch higher as expected. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal support at 107.85 for a further potential residual push up to target the 109.30/50 key resistance before risk of a bearish reversal sets in.
On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 107.85 invalidates the corrective rebound scenario for a slide back to retest the 106.70 pull-back support.
AUD/USD – 0.6890 remains the key short-term resistance to watch
Maintain bearish bias below 0.6890 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target the next near-term supports at 0.6810 and 0.6760/6740 (also the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent push up from 03 Sep low to 12 Sep 2019 high).
On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.6890 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the corrective rebound towards 0.7000 next (upper boundary of the descending channel from 03 Dec 2018 high).