Wed, Mar 29, 2023 @ 17:17 GMT
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Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Test for the Bears

Euro technical forecast: EUR/USD weekly trade levels

  • Euro reverse sharply off confluent uptrend resistance
  • EUR/USD at risk for further short-term losses
  • Resistance 1.0943, 1.11, 1.1275– support 1.0705, 1.0457/61 (key)

Euro plummeted 3.3% off multi-month highs with EUR/USD reversing sharply off uptrend resistance last week. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the threat of a deeper correction remains while below the 1.09-handle. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: Euro reversed off confluent uptrend resistance last week around the 50% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.0943. The move marks the largest single-week range since November and takes EUR/USD back into objective yearly-open support here at 1.0705. The 2023 opening-range is set and we’re looking for a breakout in the weeks ahead.

A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten a larger correction within the confines of the September uptrend with key support / broader bullish invalidation set to 1.0457/61– a region defined by the .38.2% retracement and the 52-week moving average.

Monthly-open resistance is eyed at 1.0864 backed by 1.0943 and the March high-week close at 1.1099– a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption towards the 61.8% retracement at 1.1275.

Bottom line: Euro has responded to uptrend resistance and threatens a pullback towards uptrend support- we’re on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low in the weeks ahead. From at trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.0450s IF price is indeed heading higher on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Euro short-term technical outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases
DISCLAIMER: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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