Sat, Mar 25, 2023 @ 20:30 GMT
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Crude Oil Price Forecast: WTI Breakout Brewing

Crude Oil technical forecast: WTI weekly trade levels

  • Crude prices in multi-month consolidation – breakout pending
  • Oil rally approaching 2023 opening-range highs
  • WTI resistance 81.90s, 83.28-84.78 (key), 92.83– support 73.40s, 71.47 (key), 66

Crude oil prices have carved a well-defined yearly opening-range with WTI poised for a breakout in the weeks ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the WTI weekly technical chart.

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: Crude oil prices rebounded sharply off downtrend support (blue) in December of last year with a 17.9% rally off the lows failing in late-January. Since then, WTI has continued to trade within the confines of a massive multi-month consolidation pattern – we’re looking for the breakout to offer some guidance here in the weeks ahead.

Initial resistance stands with the December trendline (red- currently ~81.90s) backed by 83.28-84.78 – a region defined by the 2021 high-week close and the 100% extension of the late-December advance. A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last year and would expose initial resistance objectives at the 52-week moving average (currently ~91.80s) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 decline at 92.83.

Initial support rests with lower bounds (currently ~73.40s) with a break / weekly close below the 2022 low-week close at 71.47 needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the August 2018 low-week close / 2019 high at 65.92-66.57 and the lower parallel / 2020 high-week close at 59.16.

Bottom line: Oil prices are in consolidation just above downtrend support- breakout pending. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards the median-line – losses should be limited to 71.47 IF price is indeed heading higher. I’ll publish an updated crude oil short-term outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term WTI technical trade levels.
DISCLAIMER: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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