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US Open: Futures Trade Lower on Uneven Global Recovery Concerns

After strong gains on Friday, the mood in the market is more subdued. Chinese data overnight highlighted the slowing and uneven nature of the recovery. Tighter covid restrictions in Asia are also unnerving investors. Musk downs Bitcoin (again). US futures Dow futures -0.5% at 34228 S&P futures -0.4% at 4150 ...

Asian Virus Flareups Dent Equities But Dollar Struggles As Yields Slip

Fresh virus spike in Asia weighs on stocks and bond yields, lifting gold But some support for risk assets as taper fears ease after soft US retail sales Dollar steady as investors await Fed speakers and April minutes for new clues Asian virus escalation saps sentiment Market sentiment got off...

Week Ahead: Inflation or Stagflation? The UK Reopens and the US Takes it All Off

US inflation data has been coming in higher than expected. Will it be the same in other parts of the world? Last week, inflation data came in hot for April in the US.  However, since the beginning of the month, manufacturing and jobs data were weaker than expected. Is the...

Cliff Notes: A Focus on Jobs, Investment and Household Welfare

Key insights from the week that was. Federal Budget 2021 was our focus this week. As detailed by Chief Economist Bill Evans in his video update as well as in our detailed budget report and infographic, building up Australia’s economy through investment and employment and by guaranteeing essential services is...

US Open: Inflation Fears, Tech Selloff Continues

Tech looks set for another crushing session. The Nasdaq tanked -2.5% in the previous session and is set for a further -1.7% decline on the open. Chinese PPI rises at fastest pace in 3 years fueling inflation concerns. US futures Dow futures -0.5% at 34595 S&P futures -0.9% at 4151 ...

Asian Stocks in Deep Selloff, But Yen and Dollar Remain Weak

While US stocks hit another record high overnight, the path reversed with the three major indexes closing lower, with particular heavy selling in NASDAQ. Bearish sentiment continues in Asia session today, with Nikkei and Hong Kong HSI in deep red. Reactions in currency markets are mild, however, with commodity...

BoJ members emphasized the importance of vaccination pace

In the Summary of Opinions of BoJ's April 26-27 meeting, board members noted that risks to economic activity are "skewed to the downside" due to the impact of COVID-19, including the "current spread of variants" and "recent reinstatement of state of emergency". Also uncertainties remain high, such as "progress...

The Weekly Bottom Line: How Far is the U.S. Labor Market from Home?

U.S. Highlights Job growth slowed in April, with just 266k jobs created in the month. With a growing labor force, the unemployment rate edged up to 6.1% from 6.0% in March. ISM manufacturing and services indexes also pointed to slower growth in April, but price sub-indexes continued to accelerate....

Week Ahead: Coronavirus and Inflation Will Take Center Stage as Jobs Numbers are Pondered

Traders will be watching CPI and PPI from both China and the US Unless there is a prominent central bank interest rate decision, the second week of a month tends to slow down in terms of economic data.  That is indeed the case this month.  The pace of the re-openings...

Forward Guidance: Capacity Pressures Weigh on Manufacturers; Vaccinations Accelerating

Statistics Canada already provided a preliminary estimate that manufacturing sales bounced back a sizeable 3.5% in March (after a 1.6% February pullback) as curtailments on auto production related to the global semi-conductor shortage eased. Those disruptions pushed finished motor vehicle sales down 22% over January and February, with negative...

Weekly Focus – Focus on US Inflation Figures

The Covid-19 situation has continued to improve in the EU and the United States as weather is warming and most risk groups have now received the first vaccine dose. The situation in India remains difficult, as the number of new infections remain high. Vaccinations generally appear to be effective...

US Open: Futures Mixed as Recovery Strengthens

US indices point to a mixed start. The Dow Jones looks set to inch higher, whilst tech is once again out of favour. Jobless claims drop to the lowest level post pandemic. US futures Dow futures +0.07% at 34250 S&P futures -0.07% at 4164 Nasdaq futures -0.1% at 13491 In Europe ...

Week Ahead: Central bank Recap/Preview, the Recovery, and Jobs

More central banks this week with the RBA and BOE up next This weekend begins the month of May, and brings holidays on Monday in the UK, China, and Japan.  With a busy week to end April, including an extremely dovish FOMC and BIG tech earnings, the focus turns primarily...

Forward Guidance: Canadian Job Recovery to Take a Step Back in April

Canadian employment likely pulled back in April as virus containment measures were re-imposed in parts of the country. We expect an 85k drop, heavily concentrated in another round of job losses in the retail and hospitality sectors. That would still only rectrace about 15% of the whopping 562k job...

Weekly Focus – Central Banks Remain in Wait-and-See Mode

The global Covid-19 situation remains challenging. New global coronavirus cases rose for a ninth consecutive week by a record 5.7 million, as a 52% surge in India outweighed declines in most regions. Still, on a positive note the vaccination drive in Europe is picking up pace and the US...

US Open: Futures Point to a Mixed Start ahead of Tesla Earnings

US futures point to a quietly mixed start ahead of a very busy week for earnings. US futures Dow futures +0.1% at 34099 S&P futures +0.04% at 4180 Nasdaq futures -0.02% at 13929 In Europe FTSE +0.4% at 6960 Dax -0.06% at 15286 Euro Stoxx +0.1% at 4019 US stocks point to...

Covid-19 Nerves Shake, But Don’t Stir Asia

The slow, but steady increase in Covid-19 cases across Asia, ex-India, is weighing on sentiment in early Asian trading. India's situation dominated the weekend press, but across Japan, South Korea, Thailand and others in between, Covid-19 is undermining confidence in cyclical recovery that many, including the author, have priced...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Raising the Bar Even Further

U.S. Review: Raising the Bar Even Further This week's lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week's blowout retail sales report. We have revised our forecast for Q1 growth up to a 5.5% pace from 4.8% previously, and growth for the year...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Big Events Next Week Drive Markets

U.S. Highlights Without much noteworthy economic data this week, market sentiment soured on a leaked Biden administration proposal to raise the maximum tax rate on capital gains of high-income taxpayers. First quarter GDP data and a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve are also on the docket next week....

Week Ahead: Central Banks, Coronavirus, Joe Biden and Big Tech Earnings

Heading into the end of April, central banks and earnings will give direction to the markets.  The ECB held its ground last week while the BOC chose to taper bond purchases from C$4 billion per week to C$3 billion per week. Are the FOMC and the BOJ in the...

Weekly Focus – Outcome-Based Fed Unlikely to Send New Signals Next Week

This week This week has been a quiet one in terms of economic data releases. On COVID-19, global cases have reached new record highs, as India is hit hard currently by the Indian B.1.617 variant. Things are looking better in Europe, where new cases are declining (although the picture is...

A Panoramic View of the US Economy and Dollar in 10 Charts

The pandemic inflicted a lot of damage on the US economy, but thankfully, the worst has passed. It turns out that when Congress and the Federal Reserve join forces to fight a crisis, the stimulus response is so overwhelming that it eclipses everything else. Take a look below for...

US Open: Stocks Point Lower, Netflix Drags on Nasdaq

Futures head lower on lingering covid concerns, Nasdaq futures under perform on Netflix disappointment. US futures Dow futures -0.1% at 33786 S&P futures -0.3% at 4172 Nasdaq futures -0.2% at 13757 In Europe FTSE +0.2% at 6872 Dax -0.01% at 15120 Euro Stoxx +0.3% at 3940 Wall Street remain cautious on covid...

FX Market Remains Prisoner to the Vaccination Race

The dynamics in the FX market have changed this year. The speed of vaccinations has turned into the most powerful element driving currency moves, as investors recalibrate their expectations for economic growth and the timeline of central bank rate increases. Britain and America have done better than Europe and...

US Open: Covid Fears Pull Futures Lower ahead of Earnings

Concerns that rising covid cases outside of the US could hinder the global economic recovery are dragging on sentiment as earnings season ramps up. US futures Dow futures -0.4% at 33943 S&P futures -0.4% at 4140 Nasdaq futures -0.3% at 13863 In Europe FTSE -1.3% at 6911 Dax -1% at 15223 ...

US Open: Stocks Consolidate at Record Highs, Earnings in Focus

US futures are easing lower after the Dow Jones & S&P 500 hit record highs on Friday. Earnings will step up a gear this week with Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, IBM & Coca-Cola due. USD slumps to 6 week lows. US futures Dow futures -0.2% at 34122 S&P futures -0.3%...

Week Ahead: Geopolitical Tensions Resurface, ECB, BOC, and NFLX Report

The next hint of market direction may come from somewhere unexpected Last week the headlines were about continued economic strength on re-openings in richer countries and increasing coronavirus cases in poorer countries.  Geo-political tensions also resurfaced.  Russia and the US go tit-for-tat over a buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine...

Week Ahead – BoC Set to Taper, ECB Unlikely to Rock Euro

It will be an exciting week for financial markets, with two major central bank meetings and a storm of economic data to keep traders busy. The Bank of Canada seems ready to scale down its gigantic QE program, though the European Central Bank is unlikely to disturb the waters....

Cliff Notes: Both Stimulus and Sentiment are Key to the Global Recovery

Key insights from the week that was. Australian consumers’ confidence in the economy went from strength to strength in April, our Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey rising by a further 6.2% to an 11-year high. This is despite the April survey being undertaken just after the end of JobKeeper and amongst...

Would The RBNZ Cut The Policy Rate Further?

Markets The US announcing a pause Johnson & Johnson vaccinations was quickly set aside. Instead, attention soon shifted to stronger-than-expected March CPI. Bond yields somewhat surprisingly quickly erased their kneejerk move higher. Strong demand for the US 30 year auction despite the recent yield pause dragged rates even further lower....