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Week Ahead: Has the US Economic Boom Been Mostly Priced in?

Vaccine rollout success in the US has Wall Street quickly pricing in rapid growth during the recovery stage. The trend in daily new cases is rising in the US but the successful vaccine rollout will make any sharp accelerations short-lived. The Biden administration is vaccinating 1.2% of all adults...

Week Ahead – US Jobs Report to Headline Quiet Easter Week

As markets reassess how soon European economies will be able to reopen, the March nonfarm payrolls report out of the United States will likely highlight the widening growth disparity between the two regions. The expected strong US data could help maintain the dollar’s upward drive but ultimately, its path...

Commodities and Cryptos: Suez Canal Disruption Continues, Gold Steady, Bitcoin Rallies

Oil Crude prices are rising after reports that the Empire State Building-length Ever Given container vessel blocking the Suez Canal will remain stuck until at least next Wednesday. Shipping rates have risen for a third consecutive day since the crucial east-west trading route that handles over 12% or world trade...

US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Gained for a 5th Consecutive Week

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +4.79 mmb to 1291.67 mmb in the week ended March 19. Crude oil inventory gained +1.91 mmb (consensus: -0.27 mmb) to 502.71 mmb. Stockpile increased in 2 out...

Global Flash PMIs Impress, Disappointing Durables, Oil Rebounds Despite Suez Canal Still Blocked

US stocks rallied after Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen reinforced their bright outlook for the economy and stance on inflation, government debt, need for revenue for permanent spending, and ultra-dovish commitment for the labor market. The Powell/Yellen put remains firmly in place and financial markets will now...

US oil inventories rose 1.9m, WTI recovery capped below 60

US commercial crude oil inventories rose 1.9m barrels in the week ending March 19, versus expectation of 1.4m. At 502.7m barrels, US crude oil inventories are about 6% above the 5-year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 0.2% barrels. Distillate rose 3.8m barrels. Propane/propylene rose 0.2%...

Selloff of Crude Oil Amidst Risk Aversion

Crude oil prices have extended the selloff for a third consecutive week. While the demand/supply fundamentals have changed little, the major reason for the decline is the broadly-based risk aversion driven by rising yields. International Energy Agency (IEA)’s report refuting prospect of a commodity supercycle has also triggered the...

Yen Rally Accelerates As Selloff in Commodity Currencies Intensifies

Yen buying accelerates today as selloff in commodity currencies intensified. New Zealand Dollar is trading as the worst, by some distance, followed by Aussie. Canadian Dollar is dragged down by decline in oil prices, while Sterling is also pressured after poor job data. On the other hand, Dollar is...

WTI dives back below 60, below holding above 55 D EMA

WTI crude oil drops sharply today and it's back below 60 handle. It's weighed down by renewed concerns over return to lockdown in Europe, as well as slow vaccine roll outs. Nevertheless, WTI is still holding above last week's low at 58.31 for now. We'd continue to wait and see...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Profit Taking on Crude Oil Trades amidst Rising Yields

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 16, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -11 996 contracts to 525 442 for the week. Speculative long position plunged -12 000 contracts, while shorts were down -4 contracts. We should expect to see more...

Week Ahead: Financial Markets Remain Fixated with Bond Market Moves and Brace for Lots of Central Bank Speak

The focus for the upcoming week will stay with the bond market.  Financial markets are worried with how high Treasury yields can go.  Treasuries have declined for seven straight weeks and that has triggered been the primary driver for US dollar strength. Monday is the start of the Bank of...

WTI Oil Outlook: Oil May Fall Further on Weakened Sentiment and Formation of Reversal Pattern

WTI oil trades within a choppy consolidation on Friday but remains biased lower following a massive losses on Thursday, when the price fell by 7.6%, making the biggest one day drop since 21 Apr 2020. A new wave of coronavirus across Europe that resulted in fresh lockdowns, strongly hurt the...

Yields Rise, Stocks and Oil Plunge, Yen Shrugs BoJ

Renewed surge in US treasury yields overnight sent stocks lower. Risk-off sentiments continued in Asian session general. Australian Dollar is currently the worst performing one for the day, weighed down further by weak retail sales data. Canadian Dollar is following as second weakest, as oil priced tumbled. Swiss Franc,...

WTI oil plunged in worst day since Sep, pressing 59 support

Oil price plunged sharply overnight on the worst selloff since last September. Concerns over slowdown in global vaccination was a factor that triggered pull back in optimism over oil demand. More than a dozen European countries are still suspending AstraZeneca. Even UK, the best performer in vaccinations, warned over...

US Refined Products Showed Surprising Stock-Builds

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +3.59 mmb to 1288.89 mmb in the week ended March 12. Crude oil inventory gained +2.4 mmb (consensus: +2.96 mmb,) to 500.8 mmb. Stockpile increased in 2 out...

WTI Oil: Another Rise in US Crude Stocks Keeps Oil Price Under Pressure

WTI oil fell below $64 per barrel and hit one-week low on Wednesday, after the report from the US Energy Information Administration showed another increase in weekly crude stocks. US crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending March 12 and generated fresh negative signal although last...

US oil inventories rose 2.4m barrels, WTI extending consolidation from 67.83

US commercial crude oil inventories rose 2.4m barrels in the week ending March 12, slightly below expectation of 2.8m barrels. At 500.8m barrels, inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 0.5m barrels. Distillate rose 0.3m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -0.2m...

Crude Oil Price Correcting Gains, Key Supports Nearby

Key Highlights Crude oil price traded to a new multi-month high at $67.92 before correcting lower. A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $65.60 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD. Gold price is recovering, but it could face resistance near $1,760. The fed interest rate decision...

Elliott Wave Analysis: Crude Oil Can Find a Support Near $6

Crude oil is turning down despite after OPEC+ countries agreed to extend the majority of production cuts through April. We saw price spiked highe after that news and it is coming down now. However, we think this can be only a temporary retracement as we think that demand may...

US open: Futures Buoyed by Recovery Optimism

Expectations of a strong US economic recovery are underpinning US futures. Yellen looked to calm inflation fears over the weekend ahead of a bid week for central banks. US futures Dow futures +0.2% at 32740 S&P futures flat at 3930 Nasdaq futures -0.1% at 12890 In Europe FTSE +0.1% at 6765 ...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil Shorts Trimmed as Price Rallied Further

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 9, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rallied +18 419 contracts to 537 438 for the week. Speculative long position gained +4 279 contracts, while shorts declined -14 140 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

Week Ahead: Rising Treasury Yields Will Make this an Interesting FOMC Decision

The bond market seems determined to make this an interesting FOMC policy decision. Treasury yields have been surging after the Biden administration passed the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill and set a May 1st goal of getting vaccines to all adults. The Fed welcomes a steeper yield curve, but...

US Crude Oil Inventory Increased to Highest Level This Year

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +1.32 mmb to 1283 mmb in the week ended March 5. Crude oil inventory soared +13.8 mmb (consensus: +3 mmb,) to 498.4 mmb. The increase remained large although...

Oil Consolidates, Gold Vulnerable

Oil consolidates at lower levels After two straight sessions of strong declines, the sell-off in oil is showing signs of steadying. Investors have been busy booking profits following the almost 11% OPEC-meeting-inspired rally last week. OPEC’s decision to maintain output production cuts through April was fiercely cheered by the markets. While...

Oil Rally Continues, Gold Gains Ground

Oil resumes rise After tanking more than 3% in the previous session, oil is clawing its way higher as fears over supply disruption in Saudi Arabia ease and the US dollar rally pauses for breath. Oil markets fell overnight as investors locked in recent profits and started turning their attention...

WTI Oil Prices Rise to the Highest in 28 Months

WTI oil surged to the highest since October 2018 on Monday ($67.95) as the sentiment further improved after the US Senate passed a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, while an attack on Saudi’s oil installations by Yemeni groups further lifted the prices. Oil advanced nearly 7% last week after OPEC+...

Asian Markets Soften on Surging Oil Price, Dollar Firm

The Asian markets opened the week relatively mixed. Stocks gained initially on US Senate passage of the USD 1.9T stimulus bill. But sentiments are weighed down by concerns of inflation as oil prices jumped. Dollar is firm against Yen, Euro and Swiss Franc and look set to continue with...

WTI gaps up after Saudi facilities attacked, targets 71.29

Oil price rises today, in response to news of attack on Saudi Arabia's facilities over the weekend. Energy Ministry confirmed that its largest export terminal at Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf received drone attack on March 17, allegedly launched by Iranian backed Houthi rebels from Yeomen. "Such acts of...

10-Yr Yield Couldn’t Break Loose from 1.5 Magnet, Dollar and Canadian Soared

Strong treasury yield continued to be a major theme last week. But for now, it seemed 10-year yield could still break loose from the "magnetic field" of S&P dividend yield at around 1.5%. Indeed, US stocks, including NASDAQ staged a strong rebound on Friday, as 10-year yield settled back...

Week Ahead: And You Thought Last Week Was Interesting? ECB, US Auctions, and Inflation

Last week, markets were on edge as yields and the US Dollar continued to rise and stocks were mixed.  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spooked traders when he reiterated that the Fed is not concerned with rising yields nor rising inflation expectations.  On Wednesday the US will get the...