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The Aussie has been trading in a channel down against the Japanese Yen since early January. The currency pair hit the upper boundary of a senior channel on January 22 and has since remained bearish.

During the past few weeks, the currency exchange rate has regained some of its lost points and has moved closer to the border of a junior channel for a likely breakout.

Everything being equal, the AUD/JPY pair could be set for a surge. In addition, traders should watch out for the aforementioned breakout.

The Australian Dollar has been confined by a descending channel against the New Zealand Dollar since the pair touched the upper boundary of a five-month dominant channel.

The AUD/NZD pair has moved to closer to the border of a junior channel and could be set for a breakout. Meanwhile, a support cluster set by the weekly pivot point with the combination of the 55-hour simple moving average near 1.0742 was providing support for the rate.

Technical indicators suggest that the pair could rally during the following trading sessions.

EUR/USD showed no changes to its price level on Friday, as it remained fluctuating around the 200-hour SMA slightly above the 1.23 mark.

The current positioning of the pair suggests that the Euro could edge lower this week in order to approach the bottom boundary of the senior channel, the weekly S1 and the 38.20% Fibo circa 1.2230.

In terms of today, technical indicators are tended northwards that points to a possible push upwards in this session. However, the combined resistance of the 100-hour SMA and the 23.60% Fibo near 1.2350 should provide strong resistance for the pair, especially when the lack significant fundamentals cannot add additional strength to this bullish movement.

Meanwhile, it is unlikely that the pair falls down to its nearest resistance of 1.2250.

A retracement from the breached one-month channel was followed by a surge up to the 1.3865 mark. Bulls were reluctant to continue this advance even further due to the strong resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the monthly and weekly pivot points.

Technical indicators suggest that bears could take advantage of this situation and thus force the rate lower today. This movement, however, could be very limited, as the 200-hour SMA is located nearby. In case this line is breached, the next downside target is the 1.38 mark.

By and large, the general tendency of the Pound, which is expected to prevail in the market this week as well, is upwards. Thus, traders are likely to see appreciation towards a trend-line or the weekly R1 at 1.3910 and 1.3940, respectively, during the first part of the week.

Following a breakout of the descending channel early on Friday, the US Dollar entered a minor period of consolidation against the Yen.

This neutral sentiment changed during the Asian session when the pair fell 50 pips in response to various fundamental events. Some downside potential still exists in the market today; thus, the pair could decline down to the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the upper boundary of a three-month descending channel near 106.20. Given that no significant fundamentals are scheduled for this session, the US Dollar is unlikely to breach this support.

On the other hand, in case of a strong bullish momentum, gains should be capped near the 107.50 mark where the weekly R1 and the monthly PP are located.

The Bank of International Settlement said in the quarterly review: -

• "Some of the breathless commentary gives the impression that cash in the form of traditional notes and coins is going out of fashion fast,"
• "Despite all the technological improvements in payments in recent years, the use of good old-fashioned cash is still rising in most, though not all, advanced and emerging market economies."
• "The resilience of cash as a social institution reminds us of the importance of understanding the economic functions of money, beyond just the innovations in technology,"

As apparent on the chart, the yellow metal was trading along the breached one-month channel during the first part of Friday. The pair subsequently breached the falling wedge and appreciated up to the 1,325.00 mark. It has since remained in a narrow range, stranded between the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs.

In accordance with the senior channel, Gold should continue moving upwards this week; this scenario is also confirmed by bullish technical indicators. This session, however, might show limited gains, given the rate's failure to accelerate after the 55– and 200-hour SMAs were breached.

Nearest northern barriers are provided by the monthly PP or the 23.60% Fibo at 1,329.15 and 1,325.65, respectively. In case the aforementioned SMAs are breached, a move below 1,315.00 is unlikely.

The pair holds in red on Monday, as dollar weakened after Friday’s mixed US jobs data which reduced hopes of stronger pace of US rate hikes in 2018.

Extension of recovery rally last Friday probed briefly above psychological 107 barrier but failed to close above 106.88 pivot (Fibo 61.8% of 107.90/105.24 bear-leg) and generate stronger bullish signal.

Fresh easing increases bearish momentum which could further deflate dollar. Monday’s action was so far held by 10SMA (106.38) with break lower to bring daily MA’s to full bearish setup and risk further easing as daily techs are bearish overall.

Extended consolidation could be expected while 10SMA holds, while stronger bullish signals would be generated on close above falling 20SMA (106.65) and Fibo barrier at 106.88.

Res: 106.65, 106.88, 107.05, 107.67
Sup: 106.38, 106.15, 105.89, 105.45

Cable remains in green on Monday and attempts towards last Friday’s high at 1.3888, which marks initial barrier ahead of more significant 1.3910 zone, where 20SMA repeatedly capped upside attempts last week.

Falling trendline which connects high at 1.4345 with series of lower top and currently lies at 1.3946, reinforces the resistance zone.

Despite US jobs data on Friday failed to produce more strength for the greenback, current recovery action faces tough work ahead, as mixed setup of daily MA’s and weak momentum keep the downside vulnerable.

Repeated failure at 20SMA would risk fresh weakness for fresh attack at daily cloud base (currently at 1.3777) which has so far contained several attacks and continues to underpin the action from 1.3711 (01 Mar low).

Stronger bullish signal would be generated on break above 20SMA and bear-trendline (1.3910/46) which would open way towards next pivot at 1.4000 (daily cloud top / psychological barrier).

On the other side, violation od cloud base would be bearish signal and would risk extension od downtrend from 1.4345, on break below 1.3711 low.

Res: 1.3910, 1.3929, 1.3946, 1.4000
Sup: 1.3847, 1.3797, 1.3777, 1.3711

The Euro stands at the front foot at the beginning of the week and accelerated higher in early hours of the European session on Monday. Fresh upside retested 20SMA at 1.2340 (also Fibo 38.2% of 1.2446/1.2272 downleg) which capped Friday's action. The rally may extend on firm break of 1.2340 pivot, with scenario being supported by strengthening momentum on daily chart. Near-term action is underpinned by thick daily cloud (top of cloud lies at 1.2298 today) which contained Friday's post US data dip, keeping near-term uptrend from 1.2154 trough in play. Friday's action ended in Doji candle with today's acceleration higher attempting to form Doji reversal pattern on daily chart and signal stronger retracement of last Thu/Fri fall. The single currency may extend recovery after US jobs data failed to spark stronger movements in the market, as positive impact from stellar US NFP figure (313K vs 200K f/c) was offset by weaker than expected wage growth. Technicals are expected to be the key driver of the Euro, as today's economic calendar is very light. Lift above 20SMA would open next pivots at 1.2380 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2446/1.2272) and 1.2400 (Fibo 61.8% of larger 1.2555/1.2154 descend). Bearish scenario requires penetration of daily cloud to weaken near-term structure and signal extension of the downleg from 1.2445 double-top.

Res: 1.2340, 1.2355, 1.2380, 1.2400
Sup: 1.2298, 1.2265, 1.2223, 1.2187