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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8861; (P) 0.8893; (R1) 0.8912; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside for 0.8771 support. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 0.8686 and target a retest of this low. On the upside, break of 0.8967 will resume the rebound from 0.8686 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8686 at 0.9069.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5626; (P) 1.5725; (R1) 1.5776; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.5626 support. Break of 1.5626 will extend the decline from 1.5976 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5153 to 1.5976 at 1.5467 and below. On the upside above 1.5787 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will for now stay on the downside as long as 1.5976 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, change of medium term reversal is increasing with EUR/AUD just missing double projection target. They are 61.8% projection of 1.4421 to 1.5770 from 1.5153 at 1.5987, and 100% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421at 1.6023. Also, bearish divergence condition remains in daily MACD. Break of 1.5626 support will add to this bearish case and target 1.5153 key support for confirmation. Nonetheless, before that happens, as long as 1.5153 support holds, medium term rise from 1.3624 could still extend to retest 1.6587 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1681; (P) 1.1710; (R1) 1.1739; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.1740 temporary top is extending. As noted before, pull back from 1.1832 is already completed at 1.1445. Further rise will be in favor as long as 1.1630 minor support holds. Above 1.1740 will target a test on 1.1832 high. We'll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1630 minor support will target 1.1445 low again.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Market movers today

Today, there are no global market movers due to be released. Later this, week US CPI figures and euro area wage growth are the main focus, while markets will also continue to scrutinise US developments on trade policy and potential further steps against China. We still do not expect recent US trade actions to evolve into a fully fledged trade war but we stress that an escalation is still a key risk for market sentiment.

In Italy, we expect the leadership of the Democratic Party (PD) to meet today to start the procedure to replace party head Matteo Renzi, who has said he will resign after a new government is formed. Discussions about possible coalition possibilities following the inconclusive election result last week are likely to be on the agenda .

In Scandinavia, we get Danish CPI inflation for February, as well as export data (see overleaf).

Selected market news

Over the weekend, China's National People's Congress voted to abolish the two-term limit on the presidency, allowing for premier Xi Jinping's indefinite reign. Term limits, intraparty democracy and other checks and balances were originally instituted by former premier Deng Xiaoping to ensure that the madness that was Mao would never plague the Middle Kingdom again. Xi Jinping is no stranger to Mao's nebulous socioeconomic experiments. He was sent to live in a cave in the count ryside as Mao sought to re-educate the urban elite.

The world may be focused on Washington but , in our view, a consolidation of power in the world's superpower in waiting is likely to trump US bravado in dictating geopolitical outcomes.

On Friday, US nonfarm payrolls came in strong and support risk assets. The headline figure was a very high 313,000 jobs, which materialised through a rise in the participation rate, as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Hourly earnings rose 2.6% year on year, which was below last month's record figure and dampened the US reflation story.

The rise in the US participation rate was the most interesting part of the payrol ls report. That the US unemployment rate is a biased barometer of labour market slack and hence of the output gap is not new. The big uncertainty is how much of the low participation rate is explained by structural factors and how much labour is merely waiting in the wings. This issue is a key determinant dictating how much further the US economy can go before igniting wage inflation. Speaking of inflation, on Tuesdaywe get a peep at US CPI inflation numbers. We expect core CPI to come down after a strong batch of recent prints.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.84% against the USD and closed at 0.7848 on Friday.

LME Copper prices declined 0.3% or $22.0/MT to $6808.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.2% or $4.0/MT to $2078.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7865, with the AUD trading 0.22% higher against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7805, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7746. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7897, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7930.

Moving ahead, investors would keep a close watch on Australia's NAB business confidence index for February, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR slightly rose against the USD and closed at 1.2314 on Friday.

Macroeconomic data indicated that Germany’s seasonally adjusted final industrial production unexpectedly eased 0.1% on a monthly basis in January, while a preliminary reading had indicated an advance of 0.6%. Industrial production had registered a revised fall of 0.5% in the prior month. Further, the nation’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus surprisingly narrowed to €17.4 billion in January, amid an unexpected decline in both imports and exports. The nation had posted a revised trade surplus of €18.1 billion in the prior month, while markets were anticipating it to post a steady reading.

The US Dollar declined against its major peers on Friday, as disappointing US wage growth data fuelled speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not be able to adopt an aggressive path of monetary policy tightening this year.

Data indicated that non-farm payrolls in the US jumped more-than-anticipated by 313.0K in February, notching its highest level in nearly 2 years, thus indicating that the nation’s labour market continues to add jobs at a healthy pace. Non-farm payrolls had registered a revised gain of 239.0K in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a rise of 205.0K. Meanwhile, the nation’s average hourly earnings of all employees grew 0.1% MoM in February, undershooting market expectations for an advance of 0.2%, reigniting concerns that tighter jobs market is still failing to feed through to wage growth. In the prior month, average hourly earnings of all employees had recorded a rise of 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the nation’s unemployment rate unexpectedly remained unchanged at a 17-year low level of 4.1% in February, confounding market consensus for a fall to 4.0%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2323, with the EUR trading 0.07% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2286, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2249. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2347, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2371.

In absence of key macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would look forward to the US monthly budget statement for February, due to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.31% against the USD and closed at 1.3848 on Friday, boosted by upbeat industrial production figures in the UK.

Data revealed that Britain's industrial production rebounded 1.3% on a monthly basis in January, rising by the most since December 2016, driven by the reopening of a key oil pipeline. However, the reading missed market expectations for an advance of 1.5%. In the prior month, industrial production had dropped 1.3%. Additionally, the nation's manufacturing production rose less-than-anticipated by 0.1% on a monthly basis in January, after recording a gain of 0.3% in the previous month and compared to market expectations for an increase of 0.2%.

On the other hand, the nation's construction output slid 3.4% on a monthly basis in January, dipping to its weakest since June 2012 and indicating that construction industry is undergoing a severe slump at the start of the year. Market participants had expected construction output to drop 0.5%, after recording a rise of 1.6% in the previous month. Further, the nation's total trade deficit widened less-than-estimated to £3.07 billion in January, following a revised deficit of £2.49 billion in the previous month, while markets were expecting the nation to post a deficit of £3.40 billion.

In other economic news, leading think tank, NIESR estimated that UK's gross domestic product (GDP) climbed 0.3% in the three months ended February, less than market consensus for an advance of 0.4%. In the November-January 2018 period, the NIESR had estimated that the nation's economy grew by a revised 0.4%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3859, with the GBP trading 0.08% higher against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3806, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3752. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3901, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3942.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.13% against the JPY and closed at 106.80 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 106.62, with the USD trading 0.17% lower against the JPY from Friday’s close.

The Japanese Yen gained ground against the USD, as political concerns surrounding Japan’s Finance Ministry increased demand for the safe-haven currency.

Data released overnight showed that Japan’s business survey index (BSI) of large manufacturing industries climbed 2.9% on a quarterly basis in the first three months of 2018. In the prior quarter, BSI of large manufacturing industries had recorded an increase of 9.7%.

The pair is expected to find support at 106.42, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.21. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.94, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.25.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9510 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9499, with the USD trading 0.12% lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9482, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9466. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9521, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9544.

With no major macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.58% against the CAD and closed at 1.2829 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar advanced against the USD on Friday, after Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 5.8% in February, defying market expectations for it to remain at 5.9%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2806, with the USD trading 0.18% lower against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2770, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2733. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2876, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2945.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.