EUR/USD stayed in consolidations below 1.6300 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1372 support holds. Firm break of 1.1630 will resume the rise from 1.1076 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927 next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place already at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. Rise from there could be a corrective bounce or the start of an up trend. In either case, next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.
