USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.8054 extended higher last week but upside was capped below 0.8247 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected. On the downside, below 0.8054 will bring retest of 0.8038 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8247 will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8038 with another rising leg, and target 0.8475 resistance again.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8675) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9200 resistance holds. Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
