Economic developments since the last meeting have raised concerns of “stagflation” in the UK, i.e. slow growth with strong inflation. As the main constraint to growth is supply chain, we do not expect this to derail BOE’s monetary policy stance. We expect the central bank to vote unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1% and 8-1 to keep the asset purchase program at 875B pound. BOE split evenly in August on whether basic conditions for rate hike have been met. The focus of this meeting is whether and how the two new committee members would affect this balance.
We expect the BOE to vote unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1% and 8-1 to keep the asset purchase program at 875B pound. Michael Saunders will likely dissent as he prefers to end the program early. What interests us the most is the members view on whether the economic conditions have been met for tightening. Earlier this month, Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that four of the eight MPC members who voted in August judged that some initial conditions for tightening have been met. The Governor himself, Dave Ramsden, Ben Broadbent and Silvana Tenreyro are amongst the hawks. With the departure of a hawkish member, Andy Haldane, the MPC will be joined by two new officials, Chief Economist Huw Pill and external member Catherine Mann. Their stance is worth watching. Note, however, that a majority of members judging that the minimum necessary conditions have been met would not automatically trigger a rate hike. As Bailey noted, the guidance is a “necessary but not a sufficient condition for raising interest rates”.