USDCAD Outlook

USD/CAD's rise continued last week and took out 1.3965 resistance. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290 next. On the downside, below 1.3897 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will keep the decline intact, and bring another fall through 1.3480 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3981 will argue that the decline has completed, and set up further rise back to retest 1.4791 instead.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3588) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290 next. On the downside, below 1.3897 minor support will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will keep the decline intact, and bring another fall through 1.3480 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3981 will argue that the decline has completed, and set up further rise back to retest 1.4791 instead.

USD/CAD's rally resumed by breaking through 1.3967 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290 next. On the downside, below 1.3897 minor support will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will keep the decline intact, and bring another fall through 1.3480 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3981 will argue that the decline has completed, and set up further rise back to retest 1.4791 instead.