Sat, Jul 21, 2018 @ 17:30 GMT

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY edged higher to 113.17 last week but subsequent sharp fall indicates short term topping. Breach of 111.39 resistance turn support argues that it’s now corrective whole rise fro 104.62. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 110.39). We’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109..90 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.04 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 113.17 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more condition would be seen with risk of another fall.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.94; (P) 112.58; (R1) 113.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside as the correction from 113.17 extends. Deeper fall could be seen but downside should be contained by 111.39 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.50 minor resistance will bring retest of 113.17 first.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.94; (P) 112.58; (R1) 113.10; More…

The break of 112.21 minor support suggests short term topping at 113.17, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for deeper pull back. But downside should be contained by 111.39 resistance turned support and bring rebound. Further rally is still expected. Break of 113.17 will resume the rise from 104.62 to 114.73 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.64; (P) 112.89; (R1) 113.09; More…

USD?JPY’s breach of 113.13 suggests rally resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.64; (P) 112.89; (R1) 113.09; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 113.13 temporary top. But near term outlook stays bullish with 112.21 support intact. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support however, will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 111.39 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.42; (P) 112.68; (R1) 113.13; More…

Near term outlook in USD/JPY stays bullish with 112.21 support intact. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.42; (P) 112.68; (R1) 113.13; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 127.79 temporary top confirms rise resumption and intraday bias is back on the upside. The rally from 104.62 is expected to target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.15; (P) 112.35; (R1) 112.49; More…

USD/JPY recovers notably today but stays below 112.79 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidation could be seen. Below 112.21 will target 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 111.68). But downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.15; (P) 112.35; (R1) 112.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 112.79 temporary top is in progress. Deeper retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Current development affirms the case of medium term reversal. Above 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.14; (P) 112.48; (R1) 112.69; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 112.79 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Deeper retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Current development affirms the case of medium term reversal. Above 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.14; (P) 112.48; (R1) 112.69; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 112.79 temporary top is in progress. Deeper retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Current development affirms the case of medium term reversal. Above 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY surged to as high as 112.79 last week and formed a temporary top there with subsequent retreat. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation first. Downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Current development affirms the case of medium term reversal. Above 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.09; (P) 112.36; (R1) 112.80; More…

USD/JPY is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 112.16 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming medium term reversal. On the downside, below 112.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Break of 111.39 resistance now affirms this view. Firm break of 114.73 will confirm and send USD/JPY through 118.65 towards 125.85 key resistance (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.09; (P) 112.36; (R1) 112.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming medium term reversal. On the downside, below 112.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Break of 111.39 resistance now affirms this view. Firm break of 114.73 will confirm and send USD/JPY through 118.65 towards 125.85 key resistance (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.12; (P) 111.64; (R1) 112.53; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 112.62 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside as current rally from 104.62 is targeting 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming medium term reversal. On the downside, below 111.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Break of 111.39 resistance now affirms this view. Firm break of 114.73 will confirm and send USD/JPY through 118.65 towards 125.85 key resistance (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.12; (P) 111.64; (R1) 112.53; More…

USD/JPY surges to as high as 112.37 so far today. The strong break of 111.39 resistance confirms resumption of whole rally from 104.62 low. More importantly, it adds much credence to the case of medium term reversal. Intraday bias is now on the on the upside for 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming the bullish case. On the downside, touching 111.34 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 110.34 support holds.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 affirms this view and should target 114.73 for confirmation. Firm break of 114.73 will likely send USD/JPY through 118.65 towards 125.85 key resistance (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.78; (P) 111.07; (R1) 111.33; More…

USD/JPY rebounds strongly after dipping to 110.76 but stays below 111.39 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in factor as long as 110.34 minor support holds. On the upside, firm break of 111.39 will resume whole rally from 104.62 low. That will also add credence to the case of medium term reversal and target 114.73 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.34 will indicate near term reversal. And, the consolidation pattern from 111.39 would then start the third leg for 108.10 again before completion.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.78; (P) 111.07; (R1) 111.33; More…

USD/JPY fails to break 111.39 resistance so far despite rally attempt and retreated. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 111.39 will resume whole rally from 104.62 low. That will also add credence to the case of medium term reversal and target 114.73 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.34 will indicate near term reversal. And, the consolidation pattern from 111.39 would then start the third leg for 108.10 again before completion.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.49; (P) 110.70; (R1) 111.05; More…

USD/JPY surges to as high as 111.34 so far today. Break of 111.13 suggests resumption of rise from 108.10. Intraday bias is now on the upside with focus on 111.39 key resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 low. That will also add credence to the case of medium term reversal and target 114.73 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.34 will indicate near term reversal. And, the consolidation pattern from 111.39 would then start the third leg for 108.10 again before completion.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.49; (P) 110.70; (R1) 111.05; More…

USD/JPY drew strong support from 4 hour 55 EMA and rebounds sharply. Focus is turned back to 111.13 minor resistance. Break there will target 111.39 first. Based on current momentum, firm break of 111.39 will resume the larger rally from 104.62 to 114.73 key resistance next. On the downside, below 110.27 will turn bias to the downside for 109.36 first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

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