Sun, Apr 18, 2021 @ 12:24 GMT
Home Contributors Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD. The past week was marked by two important economic events: impressively strong macro-statistics from the USA and a collapse in the yield of 10-year US government bonds. According to the data published on Thursday April 15, US retail sales jumped by +9.8% in...

Week Ahead: Geopolitical Tensions Resurface, ECB, BOC, and NFLX Report

The next hint of market direction may come from somewhere unexpected Last week the headlines were about continued economic strength on re-openings in richer countries and increasing coronavirus cases in poorer countries.  Geo-political tensions also resurfaced.  Russia and the US go tit-for-tat over a buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine...

Recent Economic Data Shows it’s the US Consumer vs the Fed

The University of Michigan conducts a poll twice a month on consumer sentiment, which includes both a current sentiment and an expectations sentiment.  The Preliminary numbers are released in the middle of the month and the final results are released at the end of the month.  Aside from providing...

Week Ahead: Bank of Canada to Reduce Purchases; Global Economic Recovery to Pickup

The global economic recovery is gaining momentum as the world’s two largest economies continue to deliver robust economic readings. China’s economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter, a record rate that sets the example of what we can expect as the rest of the world recovers from COVID-19. The...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: More Evidence of Economic Recovery

U.S. Review More Evidence of Economic Recovery Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery is gaining momentum. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived, helped by an influx of stimulus in March, and industrial production rebounded from its partly weather-induced February decline. But supply chain constraints...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Federal Budget Headlines The Week Ahead

U.S. Highlights Headline inflation jumped in March, but it's too soon to sound the alarm. Economic slack is still high, inflation expectations benign, and the Fed unlikely to sit on the sidelines if they drift up persistently. Retail sales surged in March, thanks to massive income supports, accelerated vaccine...

Week Ahead – BoC Set to Taper, ECB Unlikely to Rock Euro

It will be an exciting week for financial markets, with two major central bank meetings and a storm of economic data to keep traders busy. The Bank of Canada seems ready to scale down its gigantic QE program, though the European Central Bank is unlikely to disturb the waters....

Forward Guidance: Canada’s Policy Makers to Take Center Stage Next Week

Next week will be a big one for policy announcements with the Federal Government set to table its first Budget in two years on Monday and the Bank of Canada meeting on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada will report an upgrade to their economic growth forecasts in the April...

Weekly Focus – ECB Meeting Set to be an Appetizer for June

Markets had a stellar week with equity indices banging out record highs on both sides of the Atlantic. Hence the divergence in macroeconomic prospects was not reflective in their respective flagship equity indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke all-time highs with better than expected retail sales and jobless...

Cliff Notes: Both Stimulus and Sentiment are Key to the Global Recovery

Key insights from the week that was. Australian consumers’ confidence in the economy went from strength to strength in April, our Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey rising by a further 6.2% to an 11-year high. This is despite the April survey being undertaken just after the end of JobKeeper and amongst...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets 4k: check. The EuroStoxx 50 passes the psychologic 4000 mark for the first time since January 2008! Ever since taking out the 2015 & 2020 tops which coincided more or less with 76% retracement of the 2007-2009 sell-off (3900-area), this moment had been coming. Technically, the path to the...

US Open: Futures Point to Gains as Stocks Trade at Record Levels

US stocks look to fresh all time highs amid growing optimism surrounding the economic recovery. US futures Dow futures +0.2% at 34100 S&P futures +0.5% at 4177 Nasdaq futures +0.85% at 14053 In Europe FTSE +0.4% at 7023 Dax +0.18% at 15422 Euro Stoxx +0.3% at 4021 US stocks charge higher After the...

US: Housing Starts Surge Higher in March

U.S. housing starts rose by 19.4% to 1.74 million units (annualized) in March from an upwardly-revised 1.42 million units in the month prior. The outturn came in well above market expectations, which called for a milder increase to 1.60 million units. Single-family starts rose by 15.3% (or 164k)...

Europe Rallies on Impressive China, US Data

European equities head higher European bourses are on the rise rounding off an upbeat week. Following all-time highs on Wall Street overnight and record Chinese quarterly economic expansion, stocks across Europe appear well supported heading towards the weekend. Signs of strong economic recoveries in the world’s two largest economies is buoying...

The DOW Jones Closed Above 34,000 For The First Time In History, The S&P Broke The Record, The Nasdaq Surpassed 14,000

The S&P 500 broke the record as a result of a rally in the tech sector and positive statistics. The Nasdaq Composite Index surpassed the 14,000 level for the first time since February 16 this year. The stock market received support from a decline of the US 10-year government...

CAD Edges Higher, US Confidence Data Next

The Canadian dollar is slightly higher on Friday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2513, down 0.25% on the day. On the fundamental front, Canada will release tier-2 data, including Housing Starts. In the US, today's highlight is UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to accelerate to 88.9 points. Canada ADP...

Risk Appetite Aids Equities To Record Heights

Notes/Observations EU car sales surge in Mar. China's Q1 GDP grew at a record pace. Asia: China Q1 GDP data registers record annualized growth (Q/Q: 0.6% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 18.3% v 18.5%e. China Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 14.1% v 18.0%e. China Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 34.2% v 28.0%e. China Mar...

Yields Plunge, Defy Logic, After Blowout Data, But Dollar Steadies

US economy firing on all cylinders as data keeps getting better But Treasury yields in surprise fall; dollar off lows as gold jumps to 7-week high Wall Street hits another record on upbeat earnings US recovery gathers steam but Treasuries in puzzling move The US economic outlook continued to brighten...

NZ Dollar Rally Takes Breather

The New Zealand dollar has posted limited losses in the Friday session. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7160, down 0.13% on the day. It has been an excellent week for NZD/USD, which has gained 1.86%. New Zealand Manufacturing PMI shines New Zealand wrapped up the trading week with an excellent reading...

Gold and Oil Return To Strong Gains

Since the beginning of April, the dollar's continued weakening seems to be moving beyond monthly or quarterly rebalancing. US equity indices are rewriting all-time highs, and emerging market currencies are rising at an accelerated pace. These are all clear demonstrations of the recovery in demand for risky assets. Markets are...

US-China Show How Its Done

Risk appetite reliant on sustained global economic reopening. US stock indexes still poised for more gains over coming days. $1800 gold could re-energise bullion bulls. Brent needs robust demand recovery to retake $70 handle. US benchmark stock indices posted new record highs on Thursday as markets cheered signs that...

EUR/USD Price Action Suggests Follow-Up Gains Now Need A Stronger Euro

Markets Risk was on fire yesterday after a batch of consensus-smashing US data; from ever-rising regional business confidence indicators in NY and Philadelphia, over the lowest jobless claims since the pandemic erupted to searing retail sales helped higher by government-sponsored paychecks. European stocks rose about half a percent, Wall Street...

European Open: China GDP Accelerates To Highest On Record

China's growth more than delivered in Q1 with a rise of 18.3% YoY. Still, it was slightly below expectations but, with number as punchy as these, it will do. Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 1.5 points (0.02%) and currently trades at 7,060.10 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has...

S&P 500 Notches The 22nd Record Close As Earnings Surge

The Australian dollar declined slightly after the latest GDP data from China. The numbers revealed that the country’s economy rose by 0.6% in the first quarter after the Q4’s increase of 2.6%. This growth led to an annualised growth of 18.3%, slightly below the expected 19.0%. The country attributed...

Strong Economic Data Boosts Appetite, But Coinbase Struggles

The Chinese GDP grew at a record pace in the first quarter, +18.3% from 6.5% printed a quarter earlier. The Chinese growth figure could be seen as a rebound ball after the pandemic-hit economy recovers quickly toward normal activity levels. And there is nothing more promising than seeing China...

Yields Decline Despite Strong US Economic Data

Market movers today Today is a rather slow day on the data front. We get final March HICP figures from the euro area, which will give us some more clues on what lies behind the divergence in goods and service price inflation. We will also keep an eye on...

No Major Reaction Initially Seen Following Mixed China Data

General Trend Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng saw cautious gains in early trading amid economic data . Nikkei has pared the opening gain, currently trades near flat. ASX 200 has moved modestly lower after the higher open . Taiwan Semi declines ~2% following earnings/guidance. Companies due to report during...

China React: Record GDP At 18.3%, Retail Sales Impresses, IP Disappoints, Gold Softens

A wrath of Chinese economic data mostly came in below expectations and that along with heavy global bond yields was enough to drag sentiment down. China's CSI 300 index extended its slide following the mixed economic data. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slid slightly but are still near record...

Don’t Fight The Fed! Yields, Gold, And DXY

The Federal Reserve has been telling us time and time again that they are going to keep monetary policy accommodative until ACTUAL inflation is within the 2%-3% range. They told us inflationary expectations are transitory and that the rising in yields was unsustainable. Yet even with strong US data...

Swiss Franc at 6-Week High, PPI Next

The Swiss franc is drifting in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9226, up 0.08% on the day. Swiss franc continues to swell Despite the best efforts of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Swiss franc continues to attract investors and appreciate in value. The Swiss franc was on a...