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Fundamental Analysis

April US Payrolls: Consensus Expects A Stellar One Million Net Job Growth

Markets Sterling lost ground on the big day. The Bank of England slowed its weekly asset purchase pace, acknowledging the vaccine-boosted economic recovery. Simultaneously, by doing so, they hold off pressure to start tightening interest rates as the QE end goal (£895bn) remains the same. Net purchases will now conclude...

Substantial Progress In US Jobs, Overstretched Valuations, Easy Fed And Doge To The Moon

How interesting! The Federal Reserve now thinks that the market valuations are overstretched, as if its ultra-lose monetary policy wasn’t directly responsible for the mega-inflation we see in asset prices over the past decade. The Fed’s remarks are a bit disqueting, now that the US economy is growing at...

A One-Million US Jobs Report?

Market movers today Today's market highlight will be the US jobs report for April. In light of increasing reports about labour shortages in some sectors, we expect another strong month of jobs gains. Market consensus is looking for a one-million job gain. After a marked decline in January and...

European Open: China PMI Beats, Equities Rise Ahead Of NFP

There's an air of confidence ahead of today's NFP, with equity futures and commodities rising overnight. So bulls had best hope it delivers to avoid disappointment. Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 22.1 points (0.31%) and currently trades at 7,083.80 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 62.08...

US Dollar In Tight Range Ahead Of The Non-Farm Payrolls Data

The Japanese yen was little changed during the Asian session as the market reacted to the latest income data from the country. According to Japan’s statistics agency, overtime pay declined by 6.20% in March this year after falling by 9.10% in the previous year. The overall wage income of...

Asia Trades Modestly Higher After Gains On Wall Street

General trend Nikkei has remained generally flat . Shanghai moved modestly higher during the morning session . Hang Seng extended gain following higher open. S&P ASX 200 has risen after the flat open . Companies due to report during the NY morning include American Axle, CIGNA, DraftKings, Enbridge, Fluor,...

Gold Glows On Taper Jitters

Gold and silver broke into key levels as the Bank of England was the latest central bank to fear tapering more than its shadow. The BoE performance on Thursday was a mess as officials tapered and at the same time desperately tried to avoid saying they tapered. The Canadian...

BoE Slows Pace of QE but Pound Yawns

In Thursday trade, the pound lost ground but has recovered. In the North American session, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3898, down 0.02%. BoE to slow pace of QE The Bank of England announced at its policy meeting that it would slow the pace of its QE programme, but emphasized that it...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The Bank of England published its much-anticipated May inflation report today. The document didn’t alter the MPC’s policy stance. All parameters remain unchanged. The policy rate stands at 0.1% with targets of asset purchase programmes being £875bn and £20bn respectively for UK Gilts and for corporate bonds. Chief economist...

BOE Recap: Taper, But Not Taper

The Bank of England (BOE) left interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and left their bond buying purchase program unchanged at 875 billion Pounds as well.  Only outgoing chief Andy Haldane dissenting in favor of reducing QE purchases to 825 billion Pounds.   The BOE also expects GDP for 2021 to...

US Open: Futures Mixed as Recovery Strengthens

US indices point to a mixed start. The Dow Jones looks set to inch higher, whilst tech is once again out of favour. Jobless claims drop to the lowest level post pandemic. US futures Dow futures +0.07% at 34250 S&P futures -0.07% at 4164 Nasdaq futures -0.1% at 13491 In Europe ...

Bank of England Eases Foot Off Monetary Policy Accelerator

Summary The Bank of England (BoE) kept its key policy parameters at today's announcement, keeping the Bank Rate at 0.10% and maintaining its asset purchase target at £895 billion. However, in a modest tweak towards less accommodative monetary policy the BoE reduced the pace of its weekly asset purchases by...

GBP/USD: Could BoE Trigger Break Of 1.4 Handle?

The focus is turning to the Bank of England with the central bank meeting due at 12:00 BST. Investors will be wondering whether Andrew Bailey and his MPC colleagues will start turning more hawkish amid improvement in data and ongoing optimism over the re-opening of the economy. Sentiment towards UK...

New Zealand Dollar Flat

NZD/USD is directionless on Thursday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7212, down 0.03% on the day. China is in the spotlight, as relations with Australia and New Zealand seem to be souring by the day. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had some stern comments about China...

Loonie May Return To Losses After April’s Employment Report

The loonie has been enjoying a strong upside movement against the US dollar over the last month as investors are waiting for April's employment report on Friday at 17:00 GMT. As the vaccine rollout continues, Ontario is planning to expand eligibility for coronavirus vaccines during May, with shipments increasing...

Focus On BoE And Turkish Rate Decisions, Corporate Earning Season Picks Up The Pace

Notes/Observations German Factory Orders beat expectations suggesting industry was coping very well with the virus restrictions. Norges keeps outlook for 1st potential rate hike in 2nd half of 2021. Asia Japan and Shanghai returned from extended holidays. China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that it indefinitely halting all...

Crucial Thursday For The Pound

All eyes are on the British Pound today, which is affected by a whole set of diverse factors from the Bank of England meeting and the Scottish elections, to global demand for risk assets. Should all of these factors work in one direction, we may see the start of...

USD Remains Near Two-Week Highs Focus On Employment Data

The USD remained relatively stable near a two-week high level against a basket of its counterparts, while the market's attention seems to focus on US employment data released today and tomorrow. It should be noted that yesterday the ADP employment figure for April rose substantially yet failed to meet...

Equities Show Another Mixed Day For Asia

Nikkei jumps but Chinese markets drifting The return of China and Japan from holiday has seen a mixed start to the day, after Wall Street finished inconclusively, with its early tech rally petering out into modest cyclical rotation. The S&P 500 closed just 0.07% higher, while the Nasdaq retreated 0.37%...

Australian Dollar Takes A China Hit

US dollar drifting The US dollar had another noisy but neutral session overnight, the US dollar index finishing almost unchanged at 91.26. The index has firmed to 91.35 this morning after a weaker China USD/CNY fixing but is still stuck in a broader 90.50 to 91.50 range. Given the propensity...

Equities And Dollar Cool After ISM Data, Showtime For BoE

Euro/dollar trapped near $1.20 region, stocks drift after ISM survey Huge day ahead for British pound, with BoE meeting and local elections Markets quiet overall as investors mark time until nonfarm payrolls Searching for a narrative Global markets continue to trade without a concrete theme. The economic crisis is slowly...

Oil Rise Continues, Gold Range Trades

Oil rises in Asia after an overnight hit Although official US Crude Inventories fell by a much larger 8 million barrels overnight, the US API data seems to have telegraphed the move. As such, it appears to have been priced in, and with gasoline stocks not falling by as much...

Despite Good Macroeconomic Data In The U.S., Technology Stocks Are Down Four Sessions In A Row

U.S. indices have lost correlation. While NASDAQ has been slowly sliding down for 4 trading sessions in a row, it's colleague Dow Jones updated the all-time high yesterday. Yesterday's data on business activity in Europe was good but worse than expected. At the end of Wednesday, the European stock markets...

Back And Forth

US ISM Services and ADP Employment data came in slightly softer than expected overnight, taking the froth of equity markets which seem to be struggling for momentum at these lofty heights, especially technology. US yields spiked early on a US Treasury debt ceiling scare before retreating as the session...

Investors Awaiting US Jobs Report Before Making The Next Move

US equity futures are struggling for direction this morning after a late tech selloff yesterday sent the Nasdaq lower for a fourth consecutive session. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to advance to a new record high with the support of cyclical industries. European markets are also set...

Risk Sentiment Remains Key For Trading Today

Markets Main European equity indices bounced off necklines of double top formations yesterday (eg EuroStoxx 3935), indicating that any corrections lower remain short-lived at least for now. A return to recovery highs is necessary to confirm this pattern. The move was partly a catch-up move with the US which finished...

BoE: To Taper Or Not To Taper

It first looked like a softer-than-expected ADP report would revive appetite in growth stocks, but the reflation winds returned quickly to the marketplace, forcing the US big tech to erase earlier gains and close the session 0.37% lower. Dow advanced 0.29%. The next big test for the market is Friday’s...

Asia Trades Mixed, Nikkei Outperforms After Extended Holiday

General trend Asian markets trade mixed after similar US session, Japan and Shanghai returned from extended holidays. Nasdaq FUTs erased gain during Asia after underperforming during the NY session. Nikkei opened higher and has risen by over 2% following 3 day holiday . Various Japanese companies have delayed earnings...

European Open: With A Turn Of The Screw, China Sends AUD Lower

An otherwise quiet trading session took a turn for the worse overnight, as China “indefinitely” suspended high-level economic talks with Australia. Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -35.4 points (-0.5%) and currently trades at 7,060.40 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 481.01 points (1.67%) and currently trades...

Sterling Forms A Symmetrical Triangle Ahead Of The BoE Decision

The British pound is little changed as the market waits for the upcoming Bank of England (BOE) decision. The bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.10%. For now, the bank is expected to leave its quantitative easing purchases ceiling at more than 875 billion pounds. However,...