Wed, Dec 02, 2020 @ 00:25 GMT
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Fundamental Analysis

OPEC+ Facing Hard Choices

Crude oil futures were trading lower Monday morning as market participants closely watched OPEC members and their allies as they began a two-day meeting to discuss their next steps in production policy. Brent and WTI January contracts rallied more than 7% last week and have risen by more than...

The US Dollar Finally Succumbed To All The Pressure This Morning

Markets The US dollar finally succumbed to all the pressure this morning. The trade-weighted greenback changes hands below 91.73/91.75 support. The former is the 76% retracement level of the 2018-2020 dollar rally while the latter is the 2020 low. A sustained break lower would set the stage for a fresh...

Strong Chinese PMI Numbers

Market movers today There are no significant market movers today, so COVID-19 developments and restrictions together with Brexit negotiations are in focus. On Brexit, UK foreign secretary Dominic Raab said yesterday that a deal could potentially be made this week after good faith negotiations last week between the EU...

Crude Oil Prices Drop Ahead Of The OPEC + Meeting

The Australian dollar declined slightly in early trading even after strong economic data from Australia and China. In Australia, economic numbers showed that company pre-tax profits increased by 25.8% in the third quarter, a significant increase from the previous increase of 6.3%. Housing credit increased by 0.3% while the...

Equities November Reign – SP500

After an equity rally of such magnitude and as bonds are set to finish the month flat there has been an expectation that asset managers who run balanced funds that consist of a 60:40 split between stocks and bonds would rebalance/reduce equity exposure into month-end. Some of the world’s largest...

Copper FUTs Rise On China PMI Data

General Trend China banks rise after PBOC announcement related to MLFs; Consumer firms lagged Consumer and Financial firms are among the decliners in Australia; Treasury Wine extended decline after issuing statement on China, later pared some of loss Topix Insurance, Banks and Real Estate indices decline in Japan, automakers...

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, most experts (65%) preferred the European currency. Graphical analysis, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1 also sided with the bulls. And this forecast turned out to be almost correct. "Almost", because...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Pandemic Dampens Holiday Cheer

U.S. Highlights Financial markets were more upbeat this week as investors cheered encouraging vaccine news and the start of the presidential transition. The S&P 500 is on track to end the week with a 2.3% gain from last week's close. The impact of the current wave of infections continues...

Week Ahead: Biden to Begin Transition, Coronavirus, Brexit (Again)

In a short week for the US, there were several headlines to keep everyone on their toes.   Joe Biden selected former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen as his pick for Treasury Secretary, the US Dow Jones Index rose above 30,000 for the first time, and It was another week of...

Forward Guidance: Government Support to Soften Blow of Job Losses

Optimism about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines has brightened the outlook for the economy in 2021. This is true even as escalating virus case counts and the re-imposition of containment measures take their toll on Canadian’s health and the economy in the final days of 2020. The second wave...

Week Ahead – We Go Again

A busy end to a chaotic year December may normally be associated with everything slowing down as we ease our way into the festive period but as with everything else in 2020, this is no normal December. Donald Trump is continuing to fight the election result and is going out...

RBA Meeting: A More Optimistic Take

The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its final meeting for the year at 03:30 GMT Tuesday. Having cut rates last month, no action is expected this time, so the market reaction will depend on the language of the accompanying statement. Economic data have improved lately and vaccines have...

Week Ahead – Data Overload May Spoil Vaccine Euphoria; NFP to Lead the Pack

It’s NFP week and as investors battle the vaccine optimism against the short-term gloom, the latest jobs report from the United States may determine which way sentiment sways next. Canada will also publish jobs numbers along with its Q3 GDP print. The Reserve Bank of Australia, meanwhile, will kick...

Weekly Focus – Rays of Light in Europe

While Europe is seeing rays of light in getting the second COVID-19 wave under control, the situation in US is worsening fast. Many European countries now see a turnaround in new infections and this week France joined the club with a big decline in new cases. Italy is finally...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Today’s only market-moving remark came after an EU diplomat quoted by Reuters. It sent sterling lower with EUR/GBP heading towards 0.8950. The EU diplomat stated the obvious though by pointing out that only a few days are left for EU talks. “Without London taking the necessary decisions quickly, reaching...

U.S Futures Slightly Up- Watch TSLA, DIS, CSCO

The S&P 500 Futures are slightly on the upside after U.S. financial markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday yesterday. European indices opened on the upside before facing a consolidation as EU Ambassadors agreed to prepare diligently for all possible Brexit outcomes and called on EU Commission to present contingency...

EUR/USD Steady as French Data Beats Forecasts

EUR/USD is up slightly on Friday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1926, up 0.11% on the day. With the US on an unofficial holiday after Thanksgiving, Friday will likely be a muted session. France GDP bounces back As the United Kingdom finally bids adieu to the European Union at the...

Time Running Short On The Brexit Negotiating Front

Notes/Observations EU-UK to resume face-to-face Brexit talks as time was running short Asia: Japan Nov Tokyo CPI data registered the largest drop in Headline and Core CPI since 2012 (CPI YoY: -0.7% v -0.5%e; CPI (ex-fresh food) Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.6%e China Oct Industrial Profits Y/Y: +28.2% v 10.1% prior...

Japanese Yen Dips To 104 Line

The Japanese yen has posted slight gains for a second straight day. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 104.01, down 0.24% on the day. The yen has recovered most of the losses from early in the week. The trading week has been particularly short, as Japanese markets were on holiday on...

Canada’s GDP To Bounce Back In Q3 But Loonie Still Trails Peers

Canada will post its third quarter GDP figures on Tuesday (13:30 GMT) and like other advanced economies that have reported before it, the North American economy is expected to have rebounded sharply in the summer months. However, with daily coronavirus cases accelerating lately in Canada too, the recovery may...

Oil Slips Over Holiday, Gold Vulnerable

Oil tumbles on thin liquidity Oil gave back all of its previous day’s gains overnight, as oil futures markets tumbled in holiday-thinned liquidity. Brent crude fell 2.30% to $47.70 a barrel, tracing out a bearish outside reversal day in the process. WTI fell 1.90% to $45.00 a barrel. With much...

Bitcoin Hits Record High

With US markets closed for Thanksgiving, financial markets were quiet. One “financial market,” if you can call it that, that did see some emotional volatility overnight, was bitcoin. Having touched a new high of USD9,490.00 on Tuesday, the overnight session saw the digital currencies fortunes rapidly reverse. Bitcoin fell...

Dollar On The Ropes, Aussie Unfazed By China Tariffs

Greenback hovers near lows, markets quiet overall What's the outlook for euro/dollar from here? China slaps tariffs on Australian wine, but aussie immune Crunch time in Brexit talks as EU negotiators travel to London All quiet on the FX front It was a relatively subdued session in global markets yesterday...

Global Stocks Halt Rally, US Futures Are Mixed

Global stocks are trading sideways near record highs, while the US stock market was closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving Day. The New York Stock Exchange will close early on Friday. The Wall Street index futures are mixed in early trading on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow...

China Tariffs Weighs On Australian Stocks

Australian stocks wilt under China trade onslaught US markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and market activity has been muted. US equity futures are almost unchanged today, providing little direction for Asia. Apart from China, the rest of the region appears content to lighten positioning, which has...

Risk Sentiment Shakes Off Vaccine Concerns

Risk assets keep the faith. Investors sensitive to vaccine-related developments. Gold set to test 200-MA support. Oil bulls bet OPEC+ will keep supply lower through March. Asian stocks are mostly higher while US equity futures are also pointing north, as risk appetite attempts to overcome concerns over the efficacy...

Almost All Quiet On The Eastern Front

With the US closed for Thanksgiving and little to get excited about on the news front, the Asian session has had a muted start. Markets have ignored President Trump's statement that he would concede once the US electoral college confirmed President-elect Biden's win, reinforcing the impression that the US...

EU Indices Still Mixed | TA Focus On Swiss Life

INDICES Yesterday, European stocks still lacked momentum. The Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.12%, Germany's DAX was little changed, France's CAC 40 dipped 0.08% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 dropped 0.44%. EUROPE ADVANCE/DECLINE 55% of STOXX 600 constituents traded lower or unchanged yesterday. 75% of the shares trade above their 20D MA vs 75%...

Volumes Will Probably Stay Rather Low Today

Markets The absence of the US (Thanksgiving) as well as an enticing economic calendar yesterday lead to clueless trading. ECB Minutes highlighted the increased downside risks on growth and inflation due to the second coronavirus wave. It set the stage for the central bank to hint at more stimulus in...

GBP Remains Strong Despite Brexit And Scotland

The British pound remains strong even if Brexit negotiations between the U.K. and the E.U. don’t show any progress as the end of the year is looming. Moreover, Scotland’s PM Sturgeon has declared that she wants to hold a second Scottish Independence Referendum as soon as next year. From a...