GBP/JPY’s fall from 153.84 resumed last week and dropped to as low as 145.26. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 144.97 support. Decisive break there will resume the decline from 156.69 too and target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next. On the upside, above 146.71 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 149.99 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.26 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.