Sun, Jan 17, 2021 @ 05:23 GMT

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY dropped to as low as 141.17 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidation. And near term outlook remain bearish with 144.02 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, below 141.17 will resume the fall from 149.70 and target 139.29/47 key support zone. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, decisive break of 144.02 will suggest near term reversal. Stronger rally should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 145.16) and above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) could still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

In the longer term picture, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead (116.83 as 2011 low).

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s sharp decline last week argues that the consolidation pattern from 143.18 has completed with three waves up to 149.30 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 143.18/76 support zone. On the upside, above 147.65 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 149.30/99 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.36) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.26 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.07; (P) 137.72; (R1) 138.69; More…

A temporary low is formed at 136.71 in GBP/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 142.71 resistance holds. Break of 136.71 will target 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 142.71 at 135.53. Reactions from there would decide whether whole rise from 123.94 has completed.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is still seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.99; (P) 144.83; (R1) 145.30; More…

GBP/JPY formed a temporary top at 145.67 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 142.81 minor support holds, another rise is mildly in favor. Above 145.67 will target trend line resistance (now at 147.01). Firm break there will be a signal of bullish reversal and should target 149.30 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 142.81 will argue that the rebound form 139.88 has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 139.29/47 key support zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point decline from 156.59 is still seen as a corrective move. Focus remains on 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). Strong rebound from there will re-affirm the bullish case that rise from 122.36 is still to extend through 156.59 high. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal. GBP/JPY would then target a retest on 122.26 (2016 low).

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.71; (P) 135.93; (R1) 136.31; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 135.17 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 137.78 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside break of 135.17 will resume the fall from 148.87 and target 131.51 low next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY’s medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.49; (P) 141.78; (R1) 142.31; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 141.24 temporary low. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 144.01 support turned resistance holds. Below 141.24 will extend the fall from 147.76 to 138.65 support and below. As GBP/JPY is seen as staying in consolidation pattern from 148.42, we’d expect strong support from 135.58 to contain downside. On the upside, break of 144.01 will indicate completion of the decline from 147.76 and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the sideway pattern from 148.42 is extending with another leg. But we’d expect strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Medium term rise from 122.36 is still expected to resume later. And break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. However, firm break of 135.58/39 will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 122.36 low.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.64; (P) 142.96; (R1) 143.46; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment and range trading might continue. Further decline remains in favor as long as 144.60 resistance holds. Below 141.25 will target 38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77. However, firm break of 144.60 will bring retest of 147.95 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.15; (P) 147.85; (R1) 148.79; More

A temporary low is formed at 146.92 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another decline is expected with 149.73 intact. Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we’d look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.28; (P) 134.85; (R1) 135.71; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 132.17 will suggest rejection by 38.2% retracement of 148.87 to 126.54 at 135.07. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 126.54 low. On the upside, however, sustained break of 135.07 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 140.33 next.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is possibly still in progress. Strong rebound from 126.54 argues that it may be the third leg of the pattern. Further rise could be seen to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone before completion. On the downside, though, sustained break of 122.75 low will extend 116.83 (2011 low).

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY continued to gyrate in rang of 138.53/142.79 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Price actions from 148.42 are seen as a corrective pattern. Below 138.53 will bring deeper fall, possibly through 136.44 support. But strong support could be seen at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. Above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we’d expect another fall through 116.83 low.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

GBP/JPY Monthly Chart

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s recovery from 146.92 extended last week but it hasn’t taken out 149.73 resistance decisively yet. Initial bias remains neutral first. Another fall is expected as long as 149.73 holds. Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we’d look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

In the longer term picture, current rebound argues that the down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 155.14). Firm break there will suggest that rise form 122.36 is developing into a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade. However, firm break of 139.29 will suggests that the long term down trend is still in progress and could break 116.83 low ahead.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Weekly Chart

GBP/JPY Monthly Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.67; (P) 137.21; (R1) 137.97; More…

GBP/JPY’s decline from 147.95 accelerates to as low as 132.92 so far. 61.8% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 from 134.71 is already met and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias remains on the downside and sustained trading below 134.71 will pave the way back to 126.54 low. On the upside, break of 138.68 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 148.87 resistance argues that rise from 126.54 is probably just third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Medium term outlook is turned neutral first. Break of 126.54 support would resume larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) through 122.75 low.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.06; (P) 134.44; (R1) 135.04; More…

GBP/JPY is losing some downside momentum. But further decline is expected with 136.05 resistance intact. Current fall from 148.87 should target 131.51 low next. Though, break of 126.05 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound to 137.78 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.03; (P) 151.84; (R1) 153.21; More…

GBP/JPY drew strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 153.66 will resume medium term up trend. Meanwhile, break of 149.40 support will indicate trend reversal and turn focus to 149.96 for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, the steep fall from 153.66 is now seen as first sign of trend reversal. Focus will turn to 146.96 support. Firm break there will at least confirm medium term topping and target 139.39 support next.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.10; (P) 141.74; (R1) 142.07; More…

Outlook in GBP/JPY remains unchanged. Corrective pattern from 147.95 is in progress. On the downside, break of 140.92 will target 38.2% retracement of 126.54 to 147.95 at 139.77. On the upside, above 144.60 resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 147.95 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 126.54 could either be the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low), or the start of a new up trend. In either case, further rally is expected as long as 139.31 support holds, into 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. Reaction from there should reveal which case it should be in. However, sustained break of 139.31 support will dampen this case and turn medium term outlook neutral first.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.50; (P) 138.62; (R1) 139.96; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 123.94 should target 100% projection of 123.94 to 135.74 from 129.27 at 141.07. Firm break there will target 147.95 key resistance. On the downside, break of 135.95 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re still seeing price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are seen as a sideway consolidation pattern. As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. however, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.62; (P) 152.25; (R1) 153.33; More…

GBP/JPY’s rally from 144.97 continues today and reaches as high as 153.56 so far. Break of near term channel resistance shows upside acceleration. Intraday bias stays on the upside for a test on 156.59 high next. On the downside, below 152.23 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But another rise would be expected as long as 150.58 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, the outlook is turning mixed again. On the one hand, the cross was rejected by 55 month EMA (now at 154.20) after breaching it briefing. On the other hand, there was no sustainable selling pushing it through 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51. The most likely scenario is that GBP/JPY is turning into a sideway pattern between 143.51 and 156.59. And more range trading would now be seen before a breakout, possibly on the upside.

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.99; (P) 148.64; (R1) 149.94; More…

GBP/JPY’s sharp fall and break of 148.51 minor support suggests temporary topping at 149.70. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. For now, further rise is still expected as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. Break of 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone. However, break of 145.67 will suggests that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.23; (P) 137.75; (R1) 138.21; More

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook. Near term outlook stays mildly bearish and further decline is expected with 140.08 resistance intact. But still, choppy price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Hence, we’d anticipate strong support from medium term fibonacci level at 135.39 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 140.08 resistance will now indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 142.79 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.50; (P) 134.12; (R1) 134.42; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 132.40 minor support will suggest completion of corrective rebound from 123.94. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 123.94 low. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92 to bring near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.