Tue, Jun 02, 2020 @ 00:40 GMT

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s late break of 136.55 suggests that decline from 148.87 is resuming. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 131.51 low next. On the upside, break of 138.32 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY’s medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it’s just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

In the longer term picture, firstly, GBP/JPY’s is kept well below 55 month EMA, keeping outlook bearish. But we’re treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. Hence, we’d expect range trading to continue longer. In case of an extension, strong resistance is likely to be seen at 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 at 159.11 to limit upside. However, break of 122.26 will put 116.83 (2011 low) back into focus.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.06; (P) 140.29; (R1) 140.61; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 141.50 is still in progress. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 135.74 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 141.50 will resume the rise from 126.54 to for 148.87 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress with rise from 126.54 as the third leg. Further rise should be seen back to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. For now, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. And, this will remain the favored case as long as 130.42 support holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.98; (P) 150.74; (R1) 151.35; More

With 150.12 minor support intact, intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside. Current medium term rise from 122.36 should target 61.8% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 139.29 at 155.39 next. On the downside, below 150.12 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the consolidation from 148.42 should have completed and medium term rebound from 122.36 is resuming. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. For now, the bullish scenario is preferred as long as 139.29 support holds.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.50; (P) 129.06; (R1) 129.86; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point and consolidation from 126.54 might extend. But outlook remains bearish with 130.06 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 126.54 will extend larger down trend to 122.36 low. However, break of 130.06 will indicate short term bottoming. Stronger rebound should be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 133.58).

In the bigger picture, outlook remains clearly bearish with GBP/JPY staying well below 55 week and 55 month EMA. Medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 122.36 (2016 low). We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But break of 135.66 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Sustained break of 122.36 will target next key level at 116.83 (2011 low).

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.92; (P) 144.33; (R1) 144.89; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral and another rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 144.85 resistance suggests resumption of rebound from 131.51. Break of 145.04 will extend the rally. But we’d expect strong resistance from trend line (now at 146.75) to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, firm break of 141.00 support will suggest completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline is turn argues that it’s the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.38 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.11; (P) 151.56; (R1) 152.09; More…

Break of 151.84 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 153.39 might be finished at 149.40. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for retesting 153.39 first. Break will resume medium term rally. On the downside, below 150.36 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and extend the correction from 153.39. But we’d look for strong support from 146.96 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up a bit with last week’s sharp decline. But still, as long as 146.96 key support holds, medium term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate trend reversal. And the corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.99; (P) 149.58; (R1) 150.25; More…

With 151.19 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is expected for 146.96 support. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 146.96 will be another sign of medium term trend reversal. On the upside, break of 151.19 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 146.96 key support holds, medium term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate trend reversal after rejection by 55 month EMA. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 and then 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.23; (P) 134.35; (R1) 136.02; More…

GBP/JPY’s strong rebound argues that pull back from 135.74 has completed. More importantly, rise from 123.94 is probably not over. On the upside, break of 135.74 will target 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92. We’d look for strong resistance from there to limit upside. But sustained break of 135.74 will pave the way to 144.95 resistance next. On the downside, break of 131.90 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 123.94 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.34; (P) 131.79; (R1) 132.26; More…

GBP/JPY’s fall from 135.74 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Corrective rebound from 126.54 should have completed. Deeper fall should be seen to retest this low. On the upside, break of 132.24 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 135.74 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is possibly still in progress. Strong rebound from 126.54 argues that it may be the third leg of the pattern. Further rise could be seen to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone before completion. On the downside, though, sustained break of 122.75 low will target 116.83 (2011 low).

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.55; (P) 140.04; (R1) 140.62; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment and consolidation from 141.50 could extend. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 135.74 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 141.50 will resume the rise from 126.54 to for 148.87 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low) is still in progress with rise from 126.54 as the third leg. Further rise should be seen back to 148.87/156.59 resistance zone. For now, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside. And, this will remain the favored case as long as 130.42 support holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.71; (P) 144.17; (R1) 144.54; More….

GBP/JPY continues to lose upside momentum but there is still no clear sign of topping yet. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 144.77 resistance. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 148.42 has completed at 135.58, ahead of 135.39 medium term fibonacci level. Break of 144.77 will resume the whole rebound from 122.36 through 148.42 resistance. On the downside, break of 143.13 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.16; (P) 142.57; (R1) 143.20; More

GBP/JPY gaps lower today but stays in range of 141.40/143.18. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper decline is mildly in favor as long as 143.18 resistance holds. Below 141.40 minor support will turn bias back to the downside first. Break of 139.29 will target 135.58 key support level. At this point, price actions from 148.42 are seen as a sideway consolidation pattern. Hence, we’ll expect strong support from 135.58 to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 143.18 will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the sideway pattern from 148.42 is still unfolding. In case of deeper fall, we’d expect strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Medium term rise from 122.36 is expected to resume later. And break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. However, firm break of 135.58/39 will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 122.36 low.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.27; (P) 147.69; (R1) 148.26; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Whole rise from 122.36 is resuming and break of 140.20 resistance will target 150.42 long term fibonacci level first. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 135.58 at 161.64. On the downside, below 145.64 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.50; (P) 146.38; (R1) 147.08; More…

GBP/JPY edged lower to 145.67 but there was no follow through selling yet. Intraday bias stays neutral first and some more consolidative trading could be seen. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 149.99 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 145.93 will target 144.97 low first. Break there will resume the fall from 156.59 and target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.92; (P) 140.75; (R1) 142.33; More….

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 138.65 extends higher to but and break of near term falling channel suggests reversal. Focus is back on 142.75 minor resistance. Break will confirm and turn bias to the upside for retesting 148.09. Below 138.65 will extend the fall from 148.09. In that case, we’d look for bottoming signal around 135.58, which is close to 135.39 fibonacci level, to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 148.09 is deeper than expected, we’re not bearish in the cross yet. Price action from 148.42 is possibly developing into a sideway pattern with fall from 148.09 as the third leg. Deeper decline could be seen but we’re looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Rise from 122.36 is still mildly in favor to resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 135.58/39 will confirm reversal and target a retest on 122.36 low.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.44; (P) 148.27; (R1) 148.86; More…

GBP/JPY’s break of 147.63 minor support suggests short term topping at 149.30, after failing to break 149.99 resistance. The development also argues that price action from 143.18 is a consolidation pattern that’s completed. Intraday bias is turned to he downside for retesting 143.18.76 support zone first. On the upside, above 149.30 will bring turn bias to the upside for 149.99 resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.39; (P) 141.51; (R1) 142.32; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 140.35. At this point, we’d continue to look for bottoming around there and bring rebound. Break of 143.93 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside. However, sustained break of 140.35 will bring deeper fall to 135.58 key support level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 122.36 medium term bottom is still expected to extend to of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. And decisive break there could pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, as the cross is starting to lose upside momentum, rejection below 150.42 and break of 135.58 support will indicate reversal and bring deeper fall back to retest 122.36 instead.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.22; (P) 131.82; (R1) 132.21; More…

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 133.18 resistance holds. Break of 129.27 will target 61.8% retracement of 123.94 to 135.74 at 128.44. Firm break there will target a test on 123.94 low. However, break of 133.18 will invalidate our bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 135.74 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.80; (P) 145.57; (R1) 146.74; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 148.87 is in progress. For now, as long as 143.72 support holds, further rise is in favor. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 156.58 resistance next. However. sustained break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first.

In the bigger picture, focus is now staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.33; (P) 138.96; (R1) 140.19; More

GBP/JPY’s rebound and break of 139.39 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 137.51. Fall from 144.77 is possibly completed already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 142.79 resistance first. Break will send GBP/JPY through 144.77 to 148.42 high. Overall, price actions from 148.42 are seen as forming a consolidation pattern. In case of another fall, we’d expect support from 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

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