Weekly Report
Dollar Index Faces Structural Breakdown Toward 90, EUR/USD Eyes 1.20 Breakout
Dollar Is Approaching a Much Bigger Technical Test
Dollar’s selloff is not just about this week’s Treasury buyback announcement. DXY has broken important support and is moving toward levels that could turn a medium-term decline into a much larger structural breakdown. A decisive break of 95.55 would threaten the multi-decade...
Dollar Index Faces Imminent Breakdown Risk as Fed Hike Path Shrinks
Dollar Index is approaching a critical support level as September Fed hike odds collapse from likely to roughly a two-in-three chance of a hold — not because tightening risk has disappeared, but because weaker jobs and softer consumer demand are limiting how far the Fed can realistically go.
Weak NFP Flips Fed Bets, but Oil Keeps Markets Trapped in Tug-of-War
July's shockingly weak NFP report flipped September Fed odds toward a hold, but with Brent still above $80 and the Strait of Hormuz crisis unresolved, Treasury yields, the Dollar, and equities all stopped short of a full dovish repricing.
Dollar Hit by Intervention Despite Bullish Macro Factors. Correction or Reversal?
The Dollar fell despite a hawkish Fed vote, rising yields, and rebounding oil — all bullish macro signals — as Japan's estimated $59 billion intervention and reported US-Japan cooperation introduced a policy-risk variable that overrode them. The key question now: is this a temporary correction, or the start of a broader reversal?
Triple Oil Supply Shock Tests Global Markets: Five Key Levels to Watch
Global financial markets ended last week with an unmistakable sense of caution. Brent crude climbed back to $100 for the first time since May and posted a weekly gain of almost 12%, reflecting growing concern that disruptions to global oil supplies are becoming more widespread. Even so, broader markets...
Dollar Caught Between Yesterday’s Disinflation and Tomorrow’s US-Iran Escalation
The Dollar ended the week without establishing a clear direction, despite a genuine shift in the US inflation picture. June CPI and PPI both surprised meaningfully to the downside, reinforcing the view that price pressures had begun to ease more broadly. Yet instead of extending lower, the Greenback stabilized...
Yields Break First as Markets Wait for Inflation Confirmation
Last week delivered no shortage of market-moving headlines, yet remarkably few decisive market moves. Investors had to navigate renewed US-Iran tensions, hawkish FOMC minutes, a surprise rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, stronger-than-expected Canadian employment, and signs of structural policy shifts in Japan. Despite the unusually...
Markets Dial Back Aggressive Fed Bets, Dollar Refuses to Break
The dominant narrative this week was not that the Federal Reserve became less hawkish—it was that markets became less convinced the Fed would need to become even more hawkish. Early in the week, investors aggressively priced in additional rate hikes after the June FOMC meeting, encouraged by a string...
Dollar Rally Faces Defining Technical Test as Fed Repricing Reshapes Markets
A week that began with optimism over falling oil prices ended with markets fixated on the prospect of renewed Federal Reserve tightening. The peace dividend from the US-Iran agreement continued to push energy prices lower and helped support risk sentiment. But the bigger story was the Fed's abrupt shift...
Peace Is Near, But Inflation Is Already Here: Markets Shift Focus From Iran to Fed Risks
For the first time since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, financial markets can plausibly see a genuine path toward peace. Reports throughout the week indicated that the United States and Iran are closer than at any point since hostilities began to signing the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding,...
Markets Face Triple Threat as AI Trade Cracks, Fed Risks Rise, and Iran Conflict Escalates
Markets ended the week in a far more defensive mood than they began it. After spending May climbing steadily on the back of AI enthusiasm, resilient economic growth, and hopes for easing geopolitical tensions, investors were suddenly forced to confront three separate risks at once. A sharp correction in...
US-Iran Endgame in Sight? Markets Vote for Peace as Oil, Yields and Dollar Fall
The dominant story across financial markets last week was not artificial intelligence, central banks, or economic data. It was a dramatic shift in expectations regarding the future of the US-Iran conflict. Investors increasingly embraced the view that the three-month war is moving toward a diplomatic resolution after reports emerged...
Trump Announces Iran Breakthrough — But Will Oil and Yields Believe It?
Global markets are entering the new week facing an important question: did US President Donald Trump just announce the beginning of real peace in the Middle East, or merely a ceasefire extension in a still-dangerous conflict?
Trump said on Saturday that a major agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated”...
Bond Yields Explode Globally as Markets Enter “Triple Higher” Regime Following Underwhelming Trump-Xi Summit
Global financial markets entered a far more dangerous macro phase last week as the underwhelming Trump-Xi summit failed to deliver meaningful progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or easing broader geopolitical tensions. Instead of calming investors, the summit reinforced fears that the global economy may now be entering...
Markets Ignore Geopolitical Risks, Chase AI Rally, and Dump Dollar
Markets spent last week aggressively chasing the AI-driven equity rally while largely ignoring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite renewed uncertainty over a promised peace deal, stocks surged to new records while Dollar weakened broadly on strong risk appetite. S&P 500 followed NASDAQ to fresh records, while Asia’s...
Dollar on Thin Ice as Three Forces Hit: Risk Rally, Central Bank Divergence, Yen Shock
Dollar’s broader weakness reasserted itself last week, even as it managed a modest late rebound against Euro. Across the board, however, the greenback remains under pressure, with underlying momentum and sentiment pointing to further downside ahead. Technically and fundamentally, Dollar is now skating on thin ice, with recent price...
Dual Pressure on Dollar: Fading US–Iran Risks and the Warsh Fed Factor
Dollar’s inability to hold onto last week’s gains is emerging as a key signal that the broader trend may be turning lower again. While the greenback initially found some support on headlines of stalled US–Iran talks, the move quickly lost momentum as markets shifted focus to ceasefire extensions and...
Diplomacy or Return to Conflict? Hormuz Closes Again, Oil Signals Path Into Ceasefire Cliff
The market narrative has flipped again—and the stakes are rising. The abrupt shift in the Strait of Hormuz—from briefly “open” to once again under strict military control within 24 hours—has underscored just how fragile the current ceasefire is. What initially looked like the beginning of de-escalation has quickly reverted...
Dollar at Risk of Sharp Selloff if Markets Front-Run Islamabad Accord on Progress in US-Iran Talks
Attention is firmly on Islamabad as the United States and Iran begin their first high-level talks since the onset of war, with markets looking for signs of a breakthrough that could evolve into a broader Islamabad Accord. The outcome would be as a defining moment for energy markets, inflation,...
70s-Style Stagflation Returns: Dollar as “Wrecking Ball,” Gold No Longer “King”
The return of “1970s-style stagflation” is no longer a distant tail risk—it is fast becoming the central theme driving global markets. The clearest warning sign is the emergence of a “dual shock” of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors seek safety in...