Weekly Report
Dollar at Risk of Sharp Selloff if Markets Front-Run Islamabad Accord on Progress in US-Iran Talks
Attention is firmly on Islamabad as the United States and Iran begin their first high-level talks since the onset of war, with markets looking for signs of a breakthrough that could evolve into a broader Islamabad Accord. The outcome would be as a defining moment for energy markets, inflation,...
70s-Style Stagflation Returns: Dollar as “Wrecking Ball,” Gold No Longer “King”
The return of “1970s-style stagflation” is no longer a distant tail risk—it is fast becoming the central theme driving global markets. The clearest warning sign is the emergence of a “dual shock” of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors seek safety in...
Dollar Slides as ECB Out-Hawks Fed Amid Oil Shock and Rising Inflation Risks
Dollar had every reason to rally last week, but instead ended as the worst performer among major currencies. Sharp selloff in global equities, surging Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical risks would typically trigger strong safe-haven demand for the greenback. Yet, that relationship broke down.
The key driver behind this anomaly...
Iran War Fuels King Dollar Comeback as Oil Shock Ripples Through Markets
“King Dollar” returned with a vengeance last week as global markets were jolted by a volatile mix of geopolitical escalation and a dramatic repricing of U.S. monetary policy expectations. The greenback surged broadly, pushing Dollar Index back above the psychological 100 level. The question now is how long Dollar...
Oil Crisis Roils Global Markets: DOW Tumbles, Dollar Index Eyes Reversal, EUR/CAD Dives
Global markets closed the week under the growing shadow of a rapidly escalating energy crisis. What began as a geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East has now evolved into a far broader macro shock, forcing investors to reassess everything from inflation risks and monetary policy to equity valuations and...
From Geneva Collapse to Market Shock – Technical Levels for DOW, TNX, DXY, CHF, Gold and WTI
Global markets closed February under conditions few anticipated even days ago. The events in the last 48 hours have shifted the framework from negotiation risk to open conflict. A geopolitical “black swan” has moved from theoretical scenario to live reality.
What had been treated for months as a tail risk...
Tariffs, Fed and Iran: Three Tests, One Resilient Market
Global markets were forced to face three major developments last week, each capable on its own of destabilizing sentiment. Instead of buckling under the weight of legal, monetary, and geopolitical shocks, investors responded with surprising composure.
At the end of the week came a landmark legal decision in the US...
Dollar Drift With Yield Shock, Yen Breaks Tradition
There was no single, dominant theme in currency markets last week. Instead, price action reflected a mix of cross-asset divergences. Dollar ended as the worst performer, despite the fact that Fed expectations barely shifted following high-profile releases of non-farm payrolls and CPI. Meanwhile, US Equities experienced volatility, particularly around...
AI Anxiety Shakes Markets, But Doesn’t Break Them; Dollar Rebound Might Fade
After days dominated by fears of an intensified tech rout and structural disruption from artificial intelligence, markets ended the week on a steadier footing. While volatility picked up meaningfully, Friday’s price action made clear that talk of an imminent trend reversal remains premature. Investors responded to midweek stress not...
A Credible Fed Choice Tames Tail Risks, Not the Cycle
Last week delivered yet another reminder that volatility has become a feature this year, rather than an exception. Sudden repricing episodes continue to emerge, often driven by political and institutional developments rather than changes in economic fundamentals.
The latest bout of turbulence was triggered by market repricing around the nomination...
Policy Chaos Takes Its Toll; Dollar Long-Term Downtrend Takes Shape
Relentless geopolitics has continued to haunt global markets since the turn of the year, and last week offered little respite. What has changed, however, is not the scale of the headlines but the market’s tolerance for them. Investors appear increasingly fatigued by policy uncertainty and abrupt reversals from the...
When the First Crack of 2026 Appears in US Treasuries
The second full week of 2026 was dominated by high-level political and macro headlines, leaving markets in a constant state of reassessment rather than conviction. Traders were confronted with a dense mix of headlines, ranging from renewed scrutiny of the Fed’s independence to mounting speculation over who will succeed...
Geopolitics Everywhere, Panic Nowhere in Resilient Global Markets
The first full week of 2026 delivered a barrage of geopolitical shocks that would normally be expected to rattle global markets. Instead, investors largely looked through the noise, producing a market outcome that appears counterintuitive at first glance.
The most dramatic development came from Latin America, where the US carried...
Dollar Mirrors Market Doubt, Sterling Saved, Yen Sinks
The past week delivered no shortage of surprises, yet markets ended it with remarkably little conviction. Key macro data and central bank decisions challenged prevailing assumptions, but follow-through across major assets proved elusive.
US economic releases hinted at a faster cooling in both employment and inflation. Under normal circumstances, that...
Dollar Sags, But Warsh Fed Risk May Flip the Script
Dollar ended last week broadly lower, outperforming only the even more beleaguered Yen. That said, the technical deterioration in Dollar is still measured rather than decisive. For now, Dollar's selling momentum reflects hesitation more than capitulation.
Two key forces are shaping this fragile balance. The first is indecisive risk sentiment,...
Santa Rally on Standby with Markets Split on 2026 Fed Cuts
Dollar spent most of the week pinned to the bottom of the performance board, as a steady flow of data reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. Even though selling pressure eased slightly into Friday—thanks in part to a surprisingly firm rebound in longer-dated Treasury yields—the greenback...
Fed Messaging Chaos Nudges Dollar Higher, Not Higher Enough
Global markets closed last week on an uncertain footing. While bears appeared to have an upper hand, the control was never firmly gripped. Conviction was relatively thin as traders were reluctant to commit decisively. The overall impression was of markets still searching for a coherent theme to latch onto....
Investors Step Back From US Assets Ahead of Data Flood
Last week delivered what should have been a moment of relief for global markets: the US finally ended its historic government shutdown, clearing the way for normal economic data flow to resume. Yet instead of sparking a rally, the reopening brought little comfort.
U.S. assets struggled across the board. Equities...
Dollar Ends Mixed as AI Bubble Fears, US Shutdown, and Tariff Court Case Collide
It was another volatile week in global markets, defined less by fresh data and more by the growing weight of unresolved macro risks. With the U.S. government still in shutdown and a raft of key economic reports missing, investors were left to trade sentiment rather than facts — and...
Dollar and Yields Rise Sharply After Fed, But Both Near Key Barriers Ahead
It was a week packed with market-moving headlines and wild cross-asset swings. Traders found themselves caught between optimism over a U.S.–China trade breakthrough and caution sparked by a hawkish twist from the Fed. The result was a volatile mix that saw US equities push to new records, yields jump,...