Weekly Report
Markets Face Triple Threat as AI Trade Cracks, Fed Risks Rise, and Iran Conflict Escalates
Markets ended the week in a far more defensive mood than they began it. After spending May climbing steadily on the back of AI enthusiasm, resilient economic growth, and hopes for easing geopolitical tensions, investors were suddenly forced to confront three separate risks at once. A sharp correction in...
US-Iran Endgame in Sight? Markets Vote for Peace as Oil, Yields and Dollar Fall
The dominant story across financial markets last week was not artificial intelligence, central banks, or economic data. It was a dramatic shift in expectations regarding the future of the US-Iran conflict. Investors increasingly embraced the view that the three-month war is moving toward a diplomatic resolution after reports emerged...
Trump Announces Iran Breakthrough — But Will Oil and Yields Believe It?
Global markets are entering the new week facing an important question: did US President Donald Trump just announce the beginning of real peace in the Middle East, or merely a ceasefire extension in a still-dangerous conflict?
Trump said on Saturday that a major agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated”...
Bond Yields Explode Globally as Markets Enter “Triple Higher” Regime Following Underwhelming Trump-Xi Summit
Global financial markets entered a far more dangerous macro phase last week as the underwhelming Trump-Xi summit failed to deliver meaningful progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or easing broader geopolitical tensions. Instead of calming investors, the summit reinforced fears that the global economy may now be entering...
Markets Ignore Geopolitical Risks, Chase AI Rally, and Dump Dollar
Markets spent last week aggressively chasing the AI-driven equity rally while largely ignoring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite renewed uncertainty over a promised peace deal, stocks surged to new records while Dollar weakened broadly on strong risk appetite. S&P 500 followed NASDAQ to fresh records, while Asia’s...
Dollar on Thin Ice as Three Forces Hit: Risk Rally, Central Bank Divergence, Yen Shock
Dollar’s broader weakness reasserted itself last week, even as it managed a modest late rebound against Euro. Across the board, however, the greenback remains under pressure, with underlying momentum and sentiment pointing to further downside ahead. Technically and fundamentally, Dollar is now skating on thin ice, with recent price...
Dual Pressure on Dollar: Fading US–Iran Risks and the Warsh Fed Factor
Dollar’s inability to hold onto last week’s gains is emerging as a key signal that the broader trend may be turning lower again. While the greenback initially found some support on headlines of stalled US–Iran talks, the move quickly lost momentum as markets shifted focus to ceasefire extensions and...
Diplomacy or Return to Conflict? Hormuz Closes Again, Oil Signals Path Into Ceasefire Cliff
The market narrative has flipped again—and the stakes are rising. The abrupt shift in the Strait of Hormuz—from briefly “open” to once again under strict military control within 24 hours—has underscored just how fragile the current ceasefire is. What initially looked like the beginning of de-escalation has quickly reverted...
Dollar at Risk of Sharp Selloff if Markets Front-Run Islamabad Accord on Progress in US-Iran Talks
Attention is firmly on Islamabad as the United States and Iran begin their first high-level talks since the onset of war, with markets looking for signs of a breakthrough that could evolve into a broader Islamabad Accord. The outcome would be as a defining moment for energy markets, inflation,...
70s-Style Stagflation Returns: Dollar as “Wrecking Ball,” Gold No Longer “King”
The return of “1970s-style stagflation” is no longer a distant tail risk—it is fast becoming the central theme driving global markets. The clearest warning sign is the emergence of a “dual shock” of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors seek safety in...
Dollar Slides as ECB Out-Hawks Fed Amid Oil Shock and Rising Inflation Risks
Dollar had every reason to rally last week, but instead ended as the worst performer among major currencies. Sharp selloff in global equities, surging Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical risks would typically trigger strong safe-haven demand for the greenback. Yet, that relationship broke down.
The key driver behind this anomaly...
Iran War Fuels King Dollar Comeback as Oil Shock Ripples Through Markets
“King Dollar” returned with a vengeance last week as global markets were jolted by a volatile mix of geopolitical escalation and a dramatic repricing of U.S. monetary policy expectations. The greenback surged broadly, pushing Dollar Index back above the psychological 100 level. The question now is how long Dollar...
Oil Crisis Roils Global Markets: DOW Tumbles, Dollar Index Eyes Reversal, EUR/CAD Dives
Global markets closed the week under the growing shadow of a rapidly escalating energy crisis. What began as a geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East has now evolved into a far broader macro shock, forcing investors to reassess everything from inflation risks and monetary policy to equity valuations and...
From Geneva Collapse to Market Shock – Technical Levels for DOW, TNX, DXY, CHF, Gold and WTI
Global markets closed February under conditions few anticipated even days ago. The events in the last 48 hours have shifted the framework from negotiation risk to open conflict. A geopolitical “black swan” has moved from theoretical scenario to live reality.
What had been treated for months as a tail risk...
Tariffs, Fed and Iran: Three Tests, One Resilient Market
Global markets were forced to face three major developments last week, each capable on its own of destabilizing sentiment. Instead of buckling under the weight of legal, monetary, and geopolitical shocks, investors responded with surprising composure.
At the end of the week came a landmark legal decision in the US...
Dollar Drift With Yield Shock, Yen Breaks Tradition
There was no single, dominant theme in currency markets last week. Instead, price action reflected a mix of cross-asset divergences. Dollar ended as the worst performer, despite the fact that Fed expectations barely shifted following high-profile releases of non-farm payrolls and CPI. Meanwhile, US Equities experienced volatility, particularly around...
AI Anxiety Shakes Markets, But Doesn’t Break Them; Dollar Rebound Might Fade
After days dominated by fears of an intensified tech rout and structural disruption from artificial intelligence, markets ended the week on a steadier footing. While volatility picked up meaningfully, Friday’s price action made clear that talk of an imminent trend reversal remains premature. Investors responded to midweek stress not...
A Credible Fed Choice Tames Tail Risks, Not the Cycle
Last week delivered yet another reminder that volatility has become a feature this year, rather than an exception. Sudden repricing episodes continue to emerge, often driven by political and institutional developments rather than changes in economic fundamentals.
The latest bout of turbulence was triggered by market repricing around the nomination...
Policy Chaos Takes Its Toll; Dollar Long-Term Downtrend Takes Shape
Relentless geopolitics has continued to haunt global markets since the turn of the year, and last week offered little respite. What has changed, however, is not the scale of the headlines but the market’s tolerance for them. Investors appear increasingly fatigued by policy uncertainty and abrupt reversals from the...
When the First Crack of 2026 Appears in US Treasuries
The second full week of 2026 was dominated by high-level political and macro headlines, leaving markets in a constant state of reassessment rather than conviction. Traders were confronted with a dense mix of headlines, ranging from renewed scrutiny of the Fed’s independence to mounting speculation over who will succeed...