Weekly Report

The US midterms set off sharp swings across stocks, oil, Treasury yields and the Dollar last week, but they did not settle any of the four trends, which were already forming before the vote. With AI investment concerns, Iran-related risk and Fed expectations all pulling in different directions, each market ended the week at a technical decision point.

Friday's 2.86% Nasdaq plunge and an 8.24% semiconductor-ETF drop extended a two-week AI-driven selloff that's now reaching corporate credit assessments—S&P Global cut Meta's outlook to negative. With Gold, Silver and Bitcoin all falling alongside tech even as Treasury yields drop, Nasdaq's 25,036.33, S&P 500's 7,507.77 and the 10-year yield's 4.815% are the critical tests for whether this becomes a broader correction.

Three markets are converging on decisive levels at once: Brent crude is testing $120 resistance on Middle East supply risk, the US 10-year yield is holding near 5% as inflation and growth fears compete, and Nasdaq is barely clinging to 25,803 support on AI-financing concerns. With the Fed, GDP, PCE and Big Tech earnings all landing next week, the interaction between these three could matter more than any single move.

TL;DR: The Dollar rally has lost momentum rather than direction. DXY stalled at 102.232 as Fed urgency faded, long-end Treasury yields met buyer demand at two-decade highs, and France was left shouldering more of the Dollar’s remaining support. Absent a sizeable US CPI surprise, the Dollar looks poised for...

September's soft NFP report pushed the probability of an October Fed pause to 77.9%, but Treasury yields and Dollar Index both reversed higher by Friday's close as markets judged the data wasn't enough to resolve the bigger inflation risk—a risk Brent crude's hold above $100, despite a coordinated G7 reserve release, helped confirm is still live. Together, that shows markets are repricing when the Fed moves next, not whether further tightening is still on the table.

The Dollar Index closed near 101.03 after a hawkish Fed-driven rally, but it’s now approaching genuine resistance at 101.80–102.86 rather than emerging from support—clearing that zone likely requires the 10-year Treasury yield, not the already-stretched 2-year, to extend further.

Fed Chair Warsh’s description of Wednesday’s hike as removing “a dose of accommodation” drove the 2-year Treasury yield and Dollar Index sharply higher, but Fed funds futures barely moved the expected destination of the tightening cycle—leaving Brent’s $100 test as the upstream variable that decides whether the front end’s repricing gets confirmed.

A week of strong catalysts — a hawkish jobs report, Trump’s renewed pressure on the Fed, Yen strength, and geopolitical risk — left the Dollar, Treasury yields, and the Dow all testing key levels without breaking them, setting up September 11’s CPI report as the release that could finally force a resolution.

Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair pushed September hike odds to 57% and reinforced institutional discipline against Treasury accommodation — giving the Dollar two distinct reasons to rally, though the reaction stayed concentrated at the front end rather than confirming a structural reversal.

Dollar Is Approaching a Much Bigger Technical Test Dollar’s selloff is not just about this week’s Treasury buyback announcement. DXY has broken important support and is moving toward levels that could turn a medium-term decline into a much larger structural breakdown. A decisive break of 95.55 would threaten the multi-decade...

Dollar Index is approaching a critical support level as September Fed hike odds collapse from likely to roughly a two-in-three chance of a hold — not because tightening risk has disappeared, but because weaker jobs and softer consumer demand are limiting how far the Fed can realistically go.

July's shockingly weak NFP report flipped September Fed odds toward a hold, but with Brent still above $80 and the Strait of Hormuz crisis unresolved, Treasury yields, the Dollar, and equities all stopped short of a full dovish repricing.

The Dollar fell despite a hawkish Fed vote, rising yields, and rebounding oil — all bullish macro signals — as Japan's estimated $59 billion intervention and reported US-Japan cooperation introduced a policy-risk variable that overrode them. The key question now: is this a temporary correction, or the start of a broader reversal?

Global financial markets ended last week with an unmistakable sense of caution. Brent crude climbed back to $100 for the first time since May and posted a weekly gain of almost 12%, reflecting growing concern that disruptions to global oil supplies are becoming more widespread. Even so, broader markets...

The Dollar ended the week without establishing a clear direction, despite a genuine shift in the US inflation picture. June CPI and PPI both surprised meaningfully to the downside, reinforcing the view that price pressures had begun to ease more broadly. Yet instead of extending lower, the Greenback stabilized...

Last week delivered no shortage of market-moving headlines, yet remarkably few decisive market moves. Investors had to navigate renewed US-Iran tensions, hawkish FOMC minutes, a surprise rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, stronger-than-expected Canadian employment, and signs of structural policy shifts in Japan. Despite the unusually...

The dominant narrative this week was not that the Federal Reserve became less hawkish—it was that markets became less convinced the Fed would need to become even more hawkish. Early in the week, investors aggressively priced in additional rate hikes after the June FOMC meeting, encouraged by a string...

A week that began with optimism over falling oil prices ended with markets fixated on the prospect of renewed Federal Reserve tightening. The peace dividend from the US-Iran agreement continued to push energy prices lower and helped support risk sentiment. But the bigger story was the Fed's abrupt shift...

For the first time since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, financial markets can plausibly see a genuine path toward peace. Reports throughout the week indicated that the United States and Iran are closer than at any point since hostilities began to signing the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding,...

Markets ended the week in a far more defensive mood than they began it. After spending May climbing steadily on the back of AI enthusiasm, resilient economic growth, and hopes for easing geopolitical tensions, investors were suddenly forced to confront three separate risks at once. A sharp correction in...