Market Overview
SNB and ECB to Cut, Aussie Rebounds on Job Data
Australian Dollar staged an impressive rebound today, driven by robust employment data that surprised markets and cast doubt on the likelihood of a February rate cut by RBA. The stronger-than-expected labor market performance challenges the dovish sentiment established earlier in the week when RBA softened its inflation vigilance stance.
In...
Dollar Steady Post-CPI as Yen Slips; Aussie Faces Key Jobs Test
Dollar showed minimal reaction, other than some initial jitters, to November’s US CPI data, holding steady within its range as the report largely aligned with expectations. Headline inflation edged up, while core inflation remained flat, refusing to trend lower. With no surprise, the data cleared the way for a...
Aussie Slumps on Yuan Depreciation Speculation; US CPI and BoC Loom
Australian Dollar continued its decline today as speculation mounted that China might allow Yuan to weaken in 2025 to counteract the economic impact of increased US trade tariffs under the incoming Trump administration. While no official announcement has been made, Beijing appears to ready to signal greater reliance on...
Euro Hits 2024 Low vs Sterling as ECB Dovish Expectations Build
Euro's selloff accelerated today, breaking to a new 2024 low against Sterling. The common currency also weakened notably against the Swiss Franc, even as it remained relatively steady against other peers. Market sentiment appears to be pricing in dovish guidance from ECB at its upcoming meeting, where a standard...
Aussie Falls on RBA Dovish Shift; China’s Stimulus Optimism Wanes
Australian Dollar dropped sharply in Asian session following a significant dovish turn in RBA's communication. After holding rates steady at 4.35%, the central bank signaled growing confidence that inflationary pressures are easing, marking a departure from its previously vigilant tone. While May remains the most likely timing for a...
Aussie and HSI Gains Ignited by China’s Policy Pledges Again
Commodity currencies found significant support today after China pledged to intensify its economic stimulus efforts, aiming to secure next year’s growth targets. Australian Dollar led the charge, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar, as risk-sensitive assets reacted positively to the news. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s HSI surged, reflecting...
China’s Inflation Weakness and South Korea’s Political Chaos Weigh on Risk Sentiment
Dollar and Yen saw modest recoveries in Asian session, driven by the cautious tone in financial markets as traders positioned themselves ahead of a crucial week for economic data and central bank announcements. Risk sentiment was subdued, with equities weakening on concerns over weaker inflation data from China. Adding...
Trump Trade Roars Back, Dollar in Correction, Commodity Currencies Tumble
The resurgence of "Trump Trade" last week reignited optimism across financial markets, driving US stocks to fresh record highs and propelling Bitcoin past the critical 100k psychological level. Investors appeared largely unfazed by a slew of top-tier US economic data and the solidification of expectations for a 25bps Fed...
Dollar Slips Versus European Peers Post-NFP, Maintains Ground Against Others
Dollar came under pressure against European currencies following release of US non-farm payroll report, despite the data being robust overall. In contrast, the greenback held firm against Yen and Aussie, while advancing against Loonie, with the latter pressured by surprisingly large increase in Canada’s unemployment rate, signaling sharp loosening...
Dollar Finds Support as Traders Turn to NFP for January Fed Guidance
Dollar steadied after yesterday’s selloff, recovering slightly as markets braced for the non-farm payroll report. Traders appear increasingly confident about a December rate cut, shifting the focus of today’s employment data toward its implications for January's FOMC meeting. While the report may still trigger some market volatility, many participants...
GBP Strengthens on Conflicting BoE Survey Data, Highlighting Monetary Policy Dilemmas
Sterling rallied broadly today, driven by BoE’s Monthly Decision Maker Panel survey, which underscored a complex economic outlook that reinforces the central bank’s cautious approach to policy easing. The survey revealed a mixed picture of inflationary and deflationary pressures. Notably, 54% of businesses anticipate raising prices in response to...
Trump Trade Resurgence Boosts Bitcoin and Stocks, Dollar and Yen Maintain Strength
US financial markets basked in risk-on sentiment overnight, with S&P 500 and NASDAQ scaling new record highs. Bitcoin seized the momentum, surging past the psychologically significant $100K mark. Dubbed the "Trump Trade," optimism over President-elect Donald Trump's policies has returned in full force and is likely to persist, barring...
Dollar Shrugs Slight ADP Miss, Sterling Rises on BoE’s Gradualist Easing
Dollar is mixed as markets enter into US session, with traders digesting the slightly weaker-than-expected ADP private employment report. The re-accelerating pay growth as shown in the report might prompt some concerns among hawkish members of Fed. But the focus remains on Friday’s non-farm payroll data, the definitive input...
Aussie Weakens on Soft GDP, Markets Steady Despite South Korean Political Turmoil
Australian Dollar faced broad declines in Asian trading following Q3 GDP data that fell short of expectations, marking a continued slowdown in the economy. Despite the weakness, the data isn’t severe enough to prompt an immediate policy response from RBA, either this month or in February. The central bank’s...
Swiss Franc Rises on Inflation Stabilization, Aussie Eyes GDP Data
Swiss Franc strengthened broadly after inflation data for November indicated a modest uptick, stabilizing after months of decline. Although the annual CPI reading missed market expectations, the stabilization reduces immediate pressure on SNB to implement a significant 50bps rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting this month.
However, uncertainty still...
Greenback Holds Firm in Subdued Trading Despite Growing Expectations of December Fed Cut
Trading in the forex markets were subdued in the Asian session. Low activity is expected to persist for the rest of the day due to a light economic calendar. Dollar remains resilient, supported by expectations that the incoming US administration will favor a strong currency. While the sharp drop...
Dollar Gains Momentum after ISM Manufacturing, Euro Falters Amid French Political Crisis
Dollar's rally extended its rally, bolstered by stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing data. The notable jump in new orders and easing prices suggest an improving outlook for the US manufacturing sector. In the background, the greenback had a head start for the week after US President-elect Donald Trump adopted a firm...
Dollar Strengthens Amid Trump’s Currency Warning and Biden’s Last Semiconductor Crackdown on China
Dollar started the week on strong footing, buoyed by a combination of technical factors and geopolitical developments. Technically, the greenback bounced after failing to break through near-term support level against Euro last week. Escalating political and trade tensions is giving further fuel to Dollar's rise.
Over the weekend, US President-elect...
Yen Rally Resumes on Tokyo CPI, Swiss GDP and Eurozone Inflation Watched
Yen resumed its broad-based rally during the Asian session, lifted by stronger-than-expected Tokyo inflation data. The accelerated inflation figures have reignited market speculation about another rate hike by BoJ as early as December. Overnight index swaps now suggest there is over 60% probability of a 25bps increase at this...
Forex Consolidates; Yen Awaits Tokyo CPI, Ethereum Eyes 3700 Resistance
The forex markets are generally staying in consolidation mode today with US on thanksgiving holiday. , and even Yen's rally is losing some momentum. Nevertheless, the Japanese currency might find some renewed life with the Tokyo CPI data in the upcoming Asian session. BoJ Governing Kazuo Ueda has recently...