Market Overview

Global market sentiment came under pressure on Thursday as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation delivered a major shock to the AI industry, while rising oil prices and government bond yields added to concerns over the broader investment environment. Nasdaq-100 futures fell more than 1% ahead of the US session, threatening to interrupt the technology-led rebound earlier this week.

Gold's failed rebound favors a retest of the early-November low near 3,870, but a decisive breakdown may have to wait. Hawkish Fed repricing has already done much of its work, leaving little room for another big shift in rate expectations before the December 4 payrolls unless a fresh catalyst arrives.

Global markets are showing two distinct signs of recovery as strong results from CoreWeave revive confidence in AI-related equities, while hawkish Fed expectations continue to support Dollar’s rally. The two moves respond to different developments, so they can coexist, but higher yields could eventually weigh on technology valuations and AI financing. Nasdaq 26,000 and DXY 103 are the two benchmarks for whether each move can last.

Ethereum is testing a key Fibonacci support at 2,000, and a decisive break could be an early warning that selling is spreading across crypto. Bitcoin has held up better, but a breakdown in Ethereum would put its own 69,000 area at risk, with hawkish Fed repricing adding to an already fragile market.

Hawkish Fed repricing is pushing US yields sharply higher, but Japan's intervention threat is holding USD/JPY back as it nears 160. A decisive break above 159.02 would strengthen the bullish case, yet the path higher faces more resistance than the US rate backdrop alone suggests.

Dollar strengthened broadly on Tuesday as Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish policy warning was reinforced by stronger-than-expected US inflation data, prompting markets to price a faster pace of monetary tightening. US two-year Treasury yield surged around 12bps to 4.68%, reflecting a sharp reassessment of near-term Fed policy expectations. However, Dollar’s advance has been relatively restrained, with DXY recovering to around 102.04 but still below last Friday’s close.

Silver is bouncing with gold as a weaker Dollar and a rebound in stocks lift the metals, but the recovery looks corrective rather than a true reversal. With the gold/silver ratio still favoring gold and resistance overhead, today's US CPI release is the test of whether the rebound can extend or silver's underperformance resumes.

Brent fell 5.85% to settle at USD 92.57 on Monday as Trump's signals against renewed Iran strikes pushed the market to discount escalation risk, breaking the 93.80 Fibonacci level. The US naval blockade remains in place, so the decline is a repricing of strike risk rather than a restoration of supply, and 88.21 is the next test.

Oil prices extended their decline on Monday as President Donald Trump downplayed the prospect of renewed US military strikes against Iran. Brent crude CFD fell nearly 3% to around 95, approaching last week’s low of 93.22, while Dollar Index retreated 0.39% to 101.881, surrendering more than half of Friday’s 0.70% rally, and European equities advanced.

A narrow centre-right lead after Saturday's New Zealand election reduces the immediate risk of a more dovish RBNZ mandate, giving the New Zealand Dollar mild support. But the one-seat majority is fragile with special votes outstanding until November 27, and neither AUD/NZD nor NZD/USD has confirmed a technical reversal.

Gold has rebounded to around 4,118 after gaining 5.02% last week, driven more by falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields than by safe-haven demand. Tuesday's US CPI report could decide whether the recovery clears the 4,160–4,200 resistance cluster or stalls inside a larger downtrend.

The US midterms set off sharp swings across stocks, oil, Treasury yields and the Dollar last week, but they did not settle any of the four trends, which were already forming before the vote. With AI investment concerns, Iran-related risk and Fed expectations all pulling in different directions, each market ended the week at a technical decision point.

October nonfarm payrolls rose 165K against the 56K consensus, unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1% and average hourly earnings strengthened to 0.4% mom. The report strengthens the case for further Fed tightening, but it does not resolve the separate concerns about AI valuations, investment returns and financing risks. Higher Treasury yields add pressure on growth stocks, so whether the tentative technology rebound survives the US cash session is the more consequential question for market sentiment.

The Nikkei closed down 5.96% at 57,434.77, entering a bear market, while KOSPI fell 6.02% and TAIEX 4.51%. AUD/JPY and AUD/USD broke key support as the Aussie and Kiwi took the heaviest currency losses, yet the Yen and Won stayed comparatively stable, suggesting the shock is still concentrated in equities and risk-sensitive currencies.

Today's US Nonfarm Payrolls report (forecast +56K, unemployment 4.2%) lands after markets scaled back 2027 Fed hike expectations while keeping a December increase at 68.4%. The Dollar Index has held support at 101.285–101.232 despite falling Treasury yields, and NFP will test whether that resilience can last.

The post-midterm rotation spread across major equity markets on Thursday. The selling is concentrated in semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks rather than technology as a whole, and the pressures on leveraged infrastructure providers were building before the election. The evidence is consistent with rotation but does not establish a confirmed global shift in investment flows, and major currencies barely reacted.

Brent Oil fell 8.7% on Wednesday to $94.62, reversing roughly half of its advance from $70.14 to $117.45 as markets removed part of the premium for a return to full-scale confrontation in the Iran conflict. That is not the same as pricing a settlement, and the first major test is the $88.21–93.80 support zone.

Gold has rebounded nearly 7% from its 3,869.96 low to around 4,133 as the US 10-year Treasury yield fell from its October peak of 5.365% to 4.847%. Both markets now sit at decisive thresholds, 4,170–4,200 for Gold and 4.815–4.800% for yields, which will show whether this is a reversal or only a corrective bounce.

Dollar fell to a one-month low on Wednesday as markets reassessed Democratic control of Congress. Dollar Index dropped 0.6% toward 101.27, weaker against all seven other major currencies, while the US 10-year yield declined about 5bps toward 4.917% and the 2-year eased about 3bps to 4.602%. US equity futures recovered sharply from overnight election-driven losses, led by traditional sectors rather than technology.

The Nikkei 225 plunged 4.84% to 60,030.10, its lowest since May, after the US midterms, then rebounded toward 61,944 to cut its loss to about 1.8%. The reversal leaves open whether it was a knee-jerk reaction or an AI reset, with key support at 59,072–59,332 and resistance at 64,831.29.