The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey show inflation expectations decreased in the near term. There’s also a shift in public sentiment towards a more balanced view of the economic situation in the UK, with decreasing number of people expecting further interest rate hikes and an increasing number advocating for stability or reduction in rates.
Median expectation for inflation over the coming year has decreased to 3.3%, down from 3.6% in August 2023. This decline suggests a growing optimism among respondents about the easing of inflationary pressures in the near term. However, when considering the twelve months following that period, expectations remain unchanged at 2.8%, indicating that respondents anticipate a stabilization of inflation rates in the longer term.
Regarding the future path of interest rates, there has been a notable shift in public opinion. Only 44% of respondents now expect rates to rise over the next 12 months, a significant decrease from the 63% who held this view in August. Conversely, 29% expect rates to stay about the same, up from 19%.
When asked about what would be “best for the economy”, only 11% of respondents suggested that rates should “go up”, down from 13%. Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents who believe that interest rates should “go down” remains steady at 40%, and those who think rates should “stay where they are” have increased to 29% from 26%.
US NFP grows 199k, unemployment rate down to 3.7%
US Non-Farm Payroll employment grew 199k in November, slightly above expectation of 190k. That was below the average monthly gain of 240k over the prior 12 months.
Unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.7%, below expectation of 3.9%. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 62.8%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings rose 4.0% yoy. Average workweek for all employments edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.
Full US non-farm payroll release here.