Wed, Mar 20, 2019 @ 12:02 GMT

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3226; (P) 1.3269; (R1) 1.3306; More….

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.3381 and intraday bias remains neutral. For now, with 1.2960 support intact, further rise is expected. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3190; (P) 1.3247; (R1) 1.3309; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2960 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3190; (P) 1.3247; (R1) 1.3309; More….

GBP/USD dipped to 1.3184 but drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA and recovered. After all, it’s staying in consolidation from 1.3381 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2960 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Remains In Uptrend Above 1.3120

Key Highlights

  • The British Pound climbed to 1.3380 before correcting lower against the US Dollar.
  • A major bullish trend line is formed with support at 1.3060 on the 4-hours chart of GBP/USD.
  • The UK Rightmove House Price Index increased 0.4% in Feb 2019 (MoM), less than the last +0.7%.
  • The UK Claimant Count for Feb 2019 will be released today, which could change by 2.7K.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

After correcting lower, the British Pound found a strong support at 1.2960 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair climbed above the 1.3160 and 1.3240 resistance levels to move into a positive zone

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair even gained traction above the 1.3300 resistance level. Besides, there was a close above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours) and 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

The pair traded as high as 1.3381 before starting a downside correction. It traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2960 low to 1.3381 high.

However, there are many supports on the downside near the 1.3170 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2960 low to 1.3381 high. The main support is near the 1.3120 level (the previous resistance area).

Moreover, there is a major bullish trend line is formed with support at 1.3060, placed along with the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). Therefore, dips in GBP/USD towards the 1.3170 or 1.3120 levels are likely to find a strong buying interest.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3300 level, followed by 1.3320. A break above the 1.3320 level could push the pair towards the 1.3380 swing high in the near term.

Overall, there could be an extended decline in GBP/USD, but the pair is likely to find support on the downside near 1.3170 or 1.3120.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK Claimant Count Change Feb 2019 – Forecast 2.7K, versus 14.2K previous.
  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate Jan 2019 (3M) – Forecast 4.0%, versus 4.0% previous.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index March 2019 – Forecast -11.3, versus -13.4 previous.
  • US Factory Orders Jan 2019 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.1% previous.
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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3231; (P) 1.3265; (R1) 1.3328; More….

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.3381 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2960 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3231; (P) 1.3265; (R1) 1.3328; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2960 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2391 resumed last week by breaching 1.3350 to 1.3381. But the pair then lost momentum and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2960 support holds. On the upside firm break of 1.3381 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

In the longer term picture, current development argues that corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) is extending with another rise. But there is no change in the long term bearish outlook as long as 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 holds. An eventual downside breakout through 1.1946 is still in favor in the long term.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3181; (P) 1.3269; (R1) 1.3329; More….

GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.3381 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.2960 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will resume whole rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3181; (P) 1.3269; (R1) 1.3329; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.2960 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will resume whole rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3136; (P) 1.3259; (R1) 1.3462; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. For now, as long as 1.2960 support holds and further rise is in favor. Sustained break of 1.3350/3381 will resume whole rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3136; (P) 1.3259; (R1) 1.3462; More….

GBP/USD spiked higher to 1.3381 and breached 1.3350 resistance. But it quickly retreated back into prior range. Intraday bias remains neutral first. For now, as long as 1.2960 support holds and further rise is in favor. Sustained break of 1.3350/3381 will resume whole rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2955; (P) 1.3122; (R1) 1.3239; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as it’s staying in range of 1.2960/3350. On the upside, Break of 1.3350 will resume the rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, again, sustained break of trend line support will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2955; (P) 1.3122; (R1) 1.3239; More….

GBP/USD is staying in range of 1.2960/3350 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, Break of 1.3350 will resume the rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, again, sustained break of trend line support will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3016; (P) 1.3094; (R1) 1.3227; More….

GBP/USD failed to break through 1.3350 resistance despite today’s strong rebound. Intraday bias is turned neutral with subsequent steep retreat. On the upside, Break of 1.3350 will resume the rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, again, sustained break of trend line support will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3016; (P) 1.3094; (R1) 1.3227; More….

The strong rebound and break of 1.3097 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.3350 has completed at 1.2960. More importantly, with near term trend line defended, outlook stays bullish for further rally. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.3350 first. Break will resume the rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, again, sustained break of trend line support will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2968; (P) 1.3038; (R1) 1.3087; More….

GBP/USD recovers as it draws support from near term trend line (now at 1.2985). Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, sustained break of trend line support will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3184 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3350.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2968; (P) 1.3038; (R1) 1.3087; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as decline from 1.3350 is in progress. Sustained break of trend line support (now at 1.2973) will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3184 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3350.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s pullback from 1.3350 extended to as low as 1.2990 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for trend line support (now at 1.2971) first. Decisive break there will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3184 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3350.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

In the longer term picture, current development argues that corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) is extending with another rise. But there is no change in the long term bearish outlook as long as 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 holds. An eventual downside breakout through 1.1946 is still in favor in the long term.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3038; (P) 1.3112; (R1) 1.3156; More….

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for trend line support (now at 1.2980). Decisive break there will add to the case of near term reversal and target 1.2773 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3184 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3350 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will turn focus back to 1.2391 low and then 1.1946.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3038; (P) 1.3112; (R1) 1.3156; More….

With 1.3184 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for trend line support (now at 1.2968). Decisive break there will add to the case of near term reversal and target 1.2773 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3184 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3350 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will turn focus back to 1.2391 low and then 1.1946.

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