A Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
At its meeting next week, the FOMC is expected to do something it has not done in over a decade: cut the fed funds...
EURCAD Ticks above 22-Month Low; Looks Oversold
EURCAD recovered slightly to the upside after it reached a fresh 22-month low around the 1.4600 psychological mark last week. However, the pair dived...
EUR/USD In Focus Ahead Of ECB And FOMC
The EUR/USD fell noticeably on Friday as the dollar jumped after a couple of Fed officials talked down the prospects of a 50-basis point...
EURAUD Hands On With The 200-SMA, Joined By The Uptrend Line
EURAUD descended from a five-and-a-half-month high of 1.6447, over a one-month period, to break through a double obstacle of the 200-day simple moving average...
MARKET WRAP: Muted Stock Market Reaction, Gold Gained Strength
Crude maintained its gain while gold price soared ahead of the GDP data *No major moves in the equity market because of some major...
Fundamental Analysis
A Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
At its meeting next week, the FOMC is expected to do something it has not done in over a decade: cut the fed funds...
Fundamental Analysis
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Core bond markets traded very subdued today. The German Bund and US Treasuries both were slight upwardly oriented, though under low volumes. Investors await...
Technical Analysis
EURCAD Ticks above 22-Month Low; Looks Oversold
EURCAD recovered slightly to the upside after it reached a fresh 22-month low around the 1.4600 psychological mark last week. However, the pair dived...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD In Focus Ahead Of ECB And FOMC
The EUR/USD fell noticeably on Friday as the dollar jumped after a couple of Fed officials talked down the prospects of a 50-basis point...
Fundamental Analysis
European Update – Earnings, Fed, Gold, UK, Oil
No summer lull just yet
We may have entered into summer holiday territory but this week is going to be anything but a lull, with...
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A Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
At its meeting next week, the FOMC is expected to do something it has not done in over a decade: cut the fed funds...
RBA’s Big Challenge with Unemployment
RBA is unlikely to cut rates month but the forecasts which will be released will point to further action later in the year.
The Reserve...
Slow Growth, Low Inflation: What’s the ECB to Do?
Executive Summary
ECB policy uncertainty has risen substantially as the central bank mulls easing policy and as markets contemplate how the appointment of Christine...
What’s Next for Sterling as Britain Flirts with a No-Deal Brexit?
The British pound remains in the eye of the storm, as markets are waking up to the risk that a no-deal Brexit in October...
A Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
At its meeting next week, the FOMC is expected to do something it has not done in over a decade: cut the fed funds...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Core bond markets traded very subdued today. The German Bund and US Treasuries both were slight upwardly oriented, though under low volumes. Investors await...
EUR/USD In Focus Ahead Of ECB And FOMC
The EUR/USD fell noticeably on Friday as the dollar jumped after a couple of Fed officials talked down the prospects of a 50-basis point...
European Update – Earnings, Fed, Gold, UK, Oil
No summer lull just yet
We may have entered into summer holiday territory but this week is going to be anything but a lull, with...
USD/TRY Outlook: Turkish Lira Stands At The Back Foot Ahead Of CBRT Rate Decision On Thursday
The Turkish lira remains in defensive mode for the second day as dollar bounced on lowered expectations for Fed's 0.5% rate cut.
The pair dipped...
More Action From The Strait Of Hormuz
Iranian military confronted and seized a British warship on Friday as Tehran said it was violating international maritime rules. UK officials were not clear...
American Currency Is In The Green
The US dollar is strengthening against most currencies. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the positive zone (+0.38%) on Friday's trading session. The...
European Trading Week Starts On A Cautious Note
European trading week starts on a cautious note
European shares started the week on a cautious footing, in most cases only barely higher, with caution...
GBPUSD Sold From 1.2510
The British pound has slipped back under the 1.2500 support level against the US dollar after bulls failed to attract buying interest above the...
USDJPY Rejected From 108.00
The US dollar has once again been rejected from the 108.00 resistance level against the Japanese yen, despite positive Sino-US trade news this morning....
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Core bond markets traded very subdued today. The German Bund and US Treasuries both were slight upwardly oriented, though under low volumes. Investors await...
EURCAD Ticks above 22-Month Low; Looks Oversold
EURCAD recovered slightly to the upside after it reached a fresh 22-month low around the 1.4600 psychological mark last week. However, the pair dived...
EUR/USD In Focus Ahead Of ECB And FOMC
The EUR/USD fell noticeably on Friday as the dollar jumped after a couple of Fed officials talked down the prospects of a 50-basis point...
European Update – Earnings, Fed, Gold, UK, Oil
No summer lull just yet
We may have entered into summer holiday territory but this week is going to be anything but a lull, with...
EUR/CAD 4H Chart: Could Edge Higher
The common European currency traded sideways against the Canadian Dollar during last week's trading sessions. The 50-hour simple moving average provided resistance for the...
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Potential Upside Reversal
The Eurozone single currency has depreciated about 0.91% in value against the Australian Dollar since last week's trading sessions. The currency pair reached eleven...
EURAUD Hands On With The 200-SMA, Joined By The Uptrend Line
EURAUD descended from a five-and-a-half-month high of 1.6447, over a one-month period, to break through a double obstacle of the 200-day simple moving average...
European Trading Week Starts On A Cautious Note
European trading week starts on a cautious note
European shares started the week on a cautious footing, in most cases only barely higher, with caution...
EUR/GBP Outlook: Fresh Advance Needs Clear Break Above 0.90 To Signal An End Of Corrective Phase
The cross regained traction on Monday and bounces, after three-day pullback was contained above rising 30DMA (0.8953), despite Friday’s close below psychological 0.90 support.
Fresh...
EUR/JPY Tests Resistance Cluster
The single European currency depreciated about 43 base points against the Japanese Yen on Friday. The currency pair was guided down by a descending...
USDJPY Rejected From 108.00
The US dollar has once again been rejected from the 108.00 resistance level against the Japanese yen, despite positive Sino-US trade news this morning....
EUR/JPY Tests Resistance Cluster
The single European currency depreciated about 43 base points against the Japanese Yen on Friday. The currency pair was guided down by a descending...
USD/JPY Could Tumble
During Friday, the USD/JPY currency pair surged to the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel located circa 108.07.
During today's morning, the pair was...
USD/JPY Outlook: The Dollar Remains Bid But Bulls Struggle To Clear Pivotal 108 Barrier
The pair rose in Asia on Monday as dollar remains bid on tempered expectations for stronger rate cut by Fed, but fresh gains were...
USDJPY Holding Bear Attack
The US dollar has started the new trading week testing the 108.00 handle against the Japanese yen currency despite escalating geopolitical tension in the...
USD/JPY The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 107.80
Our preference Long positions above 107.80 with targets at 108.15 & 108.35 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 107.80 look for further downside with...
Japanese Yen Rxtends Its Losses In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.28% against the JPY and closed at 107.72 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at...
Market Morning Briefing: Euro-Yen Is Stuck Above Support At 121
STOCKS
Equities broadly remain negative in the near term. Market looks likely to be turning cautious ahead of the US Fed meeting next week and...
Forex Forecast And Cryptocurrencies Forecast
First, a review of last week's events:
EUR/USD. Recall that the majority (65%) of experts expected further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of...
Weekly COT Report: USD Long Exposure Drops To A 3-Month Low
As of Tuesday 16th of July:
Net-long exposure for USD hit a 13-month low at $11.66 billion ($16.4 billion against G10)
Traders are their...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Core bond markets traded very subdued today. The German Bund and US Treasuries both were slight upwardly oriented, though under low volumes. Investors await...
European Update – Earnings, Fed, Gold, UK, Oil
No summer lull just yet
We may have entered into summer holiday territory but this week is going to be anything but a lull, with...
More Action From The Strait Of Hormuz
Iranian military confronted and seized a British warship on Friday as Tehran said it was violating international maritime rules. UK officials were not clear...
No Summer Lull Just Yet
We may have entered into summer holiday territory but this week is going to be anything but a lull, with earnings, major data, a...
EUR/GBP Outlook: Fresh Advance Needs Clear Break Above 0.90 To Signal An End Of Corrective Phase
The cross regained traction on Monday and bounces, after three-day pullback was contained above rising 30DMA (0.8953), despite Friday’s close below psychological 0.90 support.
Fresh...
GBPUSD Sold From 1.2510
The British pound has slipped back under the 1.2500 support level against the US dollar after bulls failed to attract buying interest above the...
GBP/USD Tests Support Cluster
At the end of the previous trading week, the GBP/USD exchange rate reversed north from the resistance level formed by the monthly S1 at...
GBP/USD Outlook: Sterling Stands At The Back Foot At The Beginning Of Key Week For Britain
Cable eases further in early European trading on Monday, following failure to hold gains above pivotal Fibo support at 1.2535 (38.2% of 1.2783/1.2382), with...
GBP/USD And USD/CAD Showing Positive Signs
GBP/USD traded higher and recently broke the 1.2500 resistance level. USD/CAD is consolidating in a broad range and it seems like it could rise...
European Open – Steady Ahead Of Huge Week
Traders braced for major events to come
It's shaping up to be a relatively flat start to the week in Europe, with futures hovering around...
USD/CHF Caution
Pivot (invalidation): 0.9840
Our preference Short positions below 0.9840 with targets at 0.9805 & 0.9780 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.9840 look for further upside with...
Swiss Franc Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.10% against the CHF and closed at 0.9821 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at...
USDCHF Retains Its Downside Pressure
USDCHF retains its downside pressure as it looks to weaken further in the days ahead. Resistance resides at the 0.9850 level. Above here, resistance...
EURCHF Creeps Up to 23-month Low; Sellers Push Down Below the Border
EURCHF continued southbound from a 6-month high of 1.1475 on April 23, breaking out of an 8-month period sideways move to push towards a...
SNB And Market Are At Collision Course
After a brief flirtation with 'normalization' global central banks are now decidedly dovish. Likely to re-embark on a global easing cycle, starting with FOMC...
USD/CHF Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 0.9845
Our preference Short positions below 0.9845 with targets at 0.9805 & 0.9780 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.9845 look for further upside with...
Switzerland’s Trade Surplus Expanded In June
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.42% against the CHF and closed at 0.9831.
In economic news, Switzerland's seasonally adjusted trade...
NZDCHF’s 100-SMA And 50.0% Fibonacci Become A Double Opponent Obstacle
NZDCHF saw some positive divergence in the last several weeks on the RSI which helped it to bounce back from a three-month high tumble...
USD/CHF Towards 0.9815
Pivot (invalidation): 0.9880
Our preference Short positions below 0.9880 with targets at 0.9835 & 0.9815 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.9880 look for further upside with...
Swiss Franc Extends Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.08% against the CHF and closed at 0.9872.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the...
EURCAD Ticks above 22-Month Low; Looks Oversold
EURCAD recovered slightly to the upside after it reached a fresh 22-month low around the 1.4600 psychological mark last week. However, the pair dived...
EUR/CAD 4H Chart: Could Edge Higher
The common European currency traded sideways against the Canadian Dollar during last week's trading sessions. The 50-hour simple moving average provided resistance for the...
USD/CAD Pressure By SMAs
The US Dollar appreciated about 77 base points against the Canadian Dollar on Friday. After the currency pair tested the weekly R1 at 1.3108,...
GBP/USD And USD/CAD Showing Positive Signs
GBP/USD traded higher and recently broke the 1.2500 resistance level. USD/CAD is consolidating in a broad range and it seems like it could rise...
USD/CAD Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3075
Our preference Short positions below 1.3075 with targets at 1.3045 & 1.3030 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.3075 look for further upside with...
Canada’s Retail Sales Unexpectedly Eased In May
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.16% against the CAD and closed at 1.3061 on Friday.
In economic news, Canada's retail...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Resilient Consumer Unlikely To Change Fed’s Mind
U.S. Highlights
Chinese economic growth slowed 6.2% y/y in the second quarter of this year, as rising trade tensions weighed on activity. Signs of...
Weekly COT Report: USD Long Exposure Drops To A 3-Month Low
As of Tuesday 16th of July:
Net-long exposure for USD hit a 13-month low at $11.66 billion ($16.4 billion against G10)
Traders are their...
Canada Retail Sales Soft Again in May
Retail sales declined 0.1% in May.
Excluding prices, sales were down 0.5%.
The details of the May report don’t look quite as soft as...
Italian Elections, Canadian Sales Miss, Oil & Gold Rise on Downed Drone and Bitcoin Steadies
Next week tech earnings pick up speed and expectations are low for results for companies in the S&P 500. Year-on-year growth is expected to...
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Potential Upside Reversal
The Eurozone single currency has depreciated about 0.91% in value against the Australian Dollar since last week's trading sessions. The currency pair reached eleven...
More Action From The Strait Of Hormuz
Iranian military confronted and seized a British warship on Friday as Tehran said it was violating international maritime rules. UK officials were not clear...
EURAUD Hands On With The 200-SMA, Joined By The Uptrend Line
EURAUD descended from a five-and-a-half-month high of 1.6447, over a one-month period, to break through a double obstacle of the 200-day simple moving average...
AUD/USD Breakout Occurs
The Australian Dollar depreciated about 42 base points against the US Dollar on Friday. The 50-hour simple moving average provided support for the currency...
AUD/USD Outlook: Pullback Needs To Hold Above Key Supports At 0.7033/00 Zone To Keep Larger Bulls In Play
The Australian dollar stands at the back foot at the beginning of the week following Friday's close in red after bulls stalled on approach...
AUD/USD Look For 0.7025
Pivot (invalidation): 0.7050
Our preference Short positions below 0.7050 with targets at 0.7035 & 0.7025 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7050 look for further upside with...
Aussie Trading Lower In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.27% against the USD and closed at 0.7043 on Friday.
LME Copper prices rose 2.0%...
Market Morning Briefing: Euro-Yen Is Stuck Above Support At 121
STOCKS
Equities broadly remain negative in the near term. Market looks likely to be turning cautious ahead of the US Fed meeting next week and...
RBA’s Big Challenge with Unemployment
RBA is unlikely to cut rates month but the forecasts which will be released will point to further action later in the year.
The Reserve...
Weekly COT Report: USD Long Exposure Drops To A 3-Month Low
As of Tuesday 16th of July:
Net-long exposure for USD hit a 13-month low at $11.66 billion ($16.4 billion against G10)
Traders are their...
NZD/USD Tests 50-Hour SMA
The New Zealand Dollar depreciated about 30 base points against the US Dollar on Friday. The decline was stopped by a support level formed...
NZD/USD Bullish Market
The New Zealand Dollar appreciated about 62 base points against the US Dollar on Thursday. The exchange rate tested the weekly R2 at 0.6787...
NZD/USD Could Edge Higher
The New Zealand Dollar maintained the ascending channel pattern against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The currency pair appreciated about 47 base points during...
NZDCHF’s 100-SMA And 50.0% Fibonacci Become A Double Opponent Obstacle
NZDCHF saw some positive divergence in the last several weeks on the RSI which helped it to bounce back from a three-month high tumble...
NZDUSD Violates Double Bottom Pattern, Bulls Back Into Play
NZDUSD successfully surpassed the long-term 200-day simple moving average (SMA), gaining some ground and is holding near the three-month high of 0.6745 that it...
EURNZD Persists with the Sell-off Towards Weekly Uptrend Line; Sellers Dominate in Short-Term
EURNZD kept up the downwards move after surpassing the previous swing low of 1.6795 to flirt next with the 23.6% Fibonacci of the down...
NZD/USD Tests 100-Hour SMA
The New Zealand Dollar depreciated about 40 base points against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The decline was stopped by the 100-hour simple moving...
The US Dollar Is Condolidating
The US dollar is changing slightly against a basket of major currencies. The US dollar index (#DX) closed trading session with a slight increase...
NZD/USD Breakout Occurs
The New Zealand Dollar appreciated about 46 base points against the US Dollar on Monday. However, the currency pair failed to breach the weekly...
EUR/AUD And EUR/NZD – Can Bears Slow Down This Week?
EUR crosses are moving very nicely to the downside, with both EURNZD and EURAUD progressing lower into a fifth wave of a decline. However,...
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