The Weekly Bottom Line: Oil Industry Woes to Weigh on Growth
U.S. Highlights
Equity markets were volatile again this week as concerns over global growth remained top of mind for investors.
Economic data continues to...
Will Oil and the Stock Market Derail Fed Tightening?
The stock market has weakened recently and oil prices have moved lower. Unless the core rate of inflation recedes, however, the Fed will probably...
USD/JPY Bullish Trend Under Threat After Cautious Fed Member Comments
Taking a break from our non-stop Brexit coverage, we want to highlight a key development that on the US monetary policy front that may...
China Weekly Letter: US-China Rivalry Here to Stay Despite Possible Ceasefire
Key points this week
Lots of speculation about the Xi-Trump meeting
Economic data points to more weakness short term
Trade deal or not –...
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair said that it would not only be able to fall to...
Fundamental Analysis
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Incoming Data Reinforce Slower Pace of Global Growth
U.S. Review
Despite Recent Price Drop, Oil Still Swaying Econ Data
At the start of October, the WTI price for a barrel of oil was...
Fundamental Analysis
The Weekly Bottom Line: Oil Industry Woes to Weigh on Growth
U.S. Highlights
Equity markets were volatile again this week as concerns over global growth remained top of mind for investors.
Economic data continues to...
Fundamental Analysis
Will Oil and the Stock Market Derail Fed Tightening?
The stock market has weakened recently and oil prices have moved lower. Unless the core rate of inflation recedes, however, the Fed will probably...
Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY Bullish Trend Under Threat After Cautious Fed Member Comments
Taking a break from our non-stop Brexit coverage, we want to highlight a key development that on the US monetary policy front that may...
Fundamental Analysis
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
The US dollar is weaker across the board on Friday. The comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida on interest rates nearing a...
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Brexit Monitor: Decent Brexit Still Base Case But Uncertainty Has Risen
Key dates
Very near term: Will there be a no-confidence vote in Theresa May? If the threshold of 48 letters is triggered, the...
Brexit Monitor: Cabinet Not Unanimously Behind May While Brexiteers Are Discussing Whether To Try And Challenge Her
Key dates
Today (14 November): UK Cabinet meets to discuss Brexit deal at 3pm. Will the Cabinet support the deal?
25 November (not confirmed):...
Brexit Update – EU and UK Agree on Draft Deal, Still More Challenge Ahead
Brexit news again dominates the headline as UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she has gained support from the Cabinet the Withdrawal Deal...
Italian Politics Monitor: Budget Truce Postponed
The Italian government overnight resubmitted its 2019 draft budgetary plan, but in line with our expectation any changes were ‘cosmetic’ rather than substantial, in...
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair said that it would not only be able to fall to...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Incoming Data Reinforce Slower Pace of Global Growth
U.S. Review
Despite Recent Price Drop, Oil Still Swaying Econ Data
At the start of October, the WTI price for a barrel of oil was...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Oil Industry Woes to Weigh on Growth
U.S. Highlights
Equity markets were volatile again this week as concerns over global growth remained top of mind for investors.
Economic data continues to...
Will Oil and the Stock Market Derail Fed Tightening?
The stock market has weakened recently and oil prices have moved lower. Unless the core rate of inflation recedes, however, the Fed will probably...
USD/JPY Bullish Trend Under Threat After Cautious Fed Member Comments
Taking a break from our non-stop Brexit coverage, we want to highlight a key development that on the US monetary policy front that may...
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
The US dollar is weaker across the board on Friday. The comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida on interest rates nearing a...
China Weekly Letter: US-China Rivalry Here to Stay Despite Possible Ceasefire
Key points this week
Lots of speculation about the Xi-Trump meeting
Economic data points to more weakness short term
Trade deal or not –...
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Update
As expected, USDJPY is finally turning lower, which more and more looks like it's a wave »iii« in play after that projected leading diagonal...
Week Ahead: Growth Concerns and Brexit Key Focal Points for FX and Stocks
The pound is probably where we might find heightened volatility again next week, although the potential is there for the US dollar or the...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Global core bonds are mixed today with US Treasuries outperforming German Bunds. Calm returned to markets after the Brexit storm of yesterday. Core bonds...
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair said that it would not only be able to fall to...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Incoming Data Reinforce Slower Pace of Global Growth
U.S. Review
Despite Recent Price Drop, Oil Still Swaying Econ Data
At the start of October, the WTI price for a barrel of oil was...
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
The US dollar is weaker across the board on Friday. The comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida on interest rates nearing a...
Week Ahead – Italy and Brexit Risks to Remain Elevated ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend
The coming week will be an unusually quiet one for economic releases but political developments in Britain and Italy will likely provide plenty of...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Global core bonds are mixed today with US Treasuries outperforming German Bunds. Calm returned to markets after the Brexit storm of yesterday. Core bonds...
Brexit Monitor: Decent Brexit Still Base Case But Uncertainty Has Risen
Key dates
Very near term: Will there be a no-confidence vote in Theresa May? If the threshold of 48 letters is triggered, the...
FX Strategy: Brexit Scenarios and Outcomes for EUR/GBP
Near term, the political situation in the UK will be pivotal for the GBP. We expect EUR/GBP to stabilise and fall back into...
Weekly Focus – Can May Deliver Decent Brexit?
Market Movers ahead
In the US, we expect November manufacturing PMIs to stabilise around the current level of 55.7.
We expect another decline in euro area...
Sterling Largely Consolidates Massive Losses with PM May’s Leadership on Tightrope
Here are the latest developments in global markets:
FOREX: The dollar was slightly up versus a basket of currencies, with the closely watched British...
Brexit Worries Dominate Market Moves
Friday November 16: Five things the markets are talking about
Earlier this week U.K PM Theresa May agreed a draft Brexit withdrawal agreement with Brussels....
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair said that it would not only be able to fall to...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Incoming Data Reinforce Slower Pace of Global Growth
U.S. Review
Despite Recent Price Drop, Oil Still Swaying Econ Data
At the start of October, the WTI price for a barrel of oil was...
USD/JPY Bullish Trend Under Threat After Cautious Fed Member Comments
Taking a break from our non-stop Brexit coverage, we want to highlight a key development that on the US monetary policy front that may...
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Update
As expected, USDJPY is finally turning lower, which more and more looks like it's a wave »iii« in play after that projected leading diagonal...
Week Ahead – Italy and Brexit Risks to Remain Elevated ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend
The coming week will be an unusually quiet one for economic releases but political developments in Britain and Italy will likely provide plenty of...
CADJPY Struggles Inside Bollinger Band Levels; Positive View in Long-Term
CADJPY is back in bullish mode in the daily timeframe over the last eight months that helped the market to head higher and peak...
GBPJPY Retains Bearish Pressure Towards 144.25 Support
GBPJPY retains bearish pressure towards 144.25 support following its Thursday sell off. On the downside, support comes in at the 144.50 level where a...
USDJPY Intraday Bearish Below 113.37 Level
The US dollar continues to drift lower against the Japanese yen currency following negative reports surrounding Sino-US trade talks. Indicators are still turning lower,...
GBPJPY Holds Above 2-Week Trough, Neutral In Medium-Term
GBPJPY has declined considerably over yesterday’s trading session, diving to a two-week low near the 144.20 level. In the very short-term the price seems...
Forex Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
EUR/USD
Current level - 1.1350
The overall outlook remains unchanged below 1.1360, for a slide towards 1.1100 area. Trigger on the downside is 1.1270.
Resistance
Support
intraday
intraweek
intraday
intraweek
1.1360
1.1360
1.1270
1.1100
1.1500
1.1500
1.1210
1.0850
USD/JPY
Current level -...
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast
First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair said that it would not only be able to fall to...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Incoming Data Reinforce Slower Pace of Global Growth
U.S. Review
Despite Recent Price Drop, Oil Still Swaying Econ Data
At the start of October, the WTI price for a barrel of oil was...
Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget
The US dollar is weaker across the board on Friday. The comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida on interest rates nearing a...
Week Ahead – Italy and Brexit Risks to Remain Elevated ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend
The coming week will be an unusually quiet one for economic releases but political developments in Britain and Italy will likely provide plenty of...
Week Ahead: Growth Concerns and Brexit Key Focal Points for FX and Stocks
The pound is probably where we might find heightened volatility again next week, although the potential is there for the US dollar or the...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Global core bonds are mixed today with US Treasuries outperforming German Bunds. Calm returned to markets after the Brexit storm of yesterday. Core bonds...
Brexit Monitor: Decent Brexit Still Base Case But Uncertainty Has Risen
Key dates
Very near term: Will there be a no-confidence vote in Theresa May? If the threshold of 48 letters is triggered, the...
FX Strategy: Brexit Scenarios and Outcomes for EUR/GBP
Near term, the political situation in the UK will be pivotal for the GBP. We expect EUR/GBP to stabilise and fall back into...
Weekly Focus – Can May Deliver Decent Brexit?
Market Movers ahead
In the US, we expect November manufacturing PMIs to stabilise around the current level of 55.7.
We expect another decline in euro area...
Sterling Largely Consolidates Massive Losses with PM May’s Leadership on Tightrope
Here are the latest developments in global markets:
FOREX: The dollar was slightly up versus a basket of currencies, with the closely watched British...
CAD/CHF 4H Chart: Bullish Sentiment Next Week
The Canadian Dollar has been trading in a triangle-like formation pattern against the Swiss Franc September. The currency pair re-tested the upper boundary of...
USD/CHF The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 1.0040
Our preference Long positions above 1.0040 with targets at 1.0085 & 1.0105 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1.0040 look for further downside with...
Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.08% against the CHF and closed at 1.0069.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the...
CHFJPY Bearish Risks Alive in Short and Medium Term
CHFJPY lost significant ground after the spectacular rally towards the pair’s highest since February of 118.05, falling as low as 111.54. Even though it...
AUD/CHF 4H Chart: Remains Near 0.7325
The Australian Dollar has continued to trade in an ascending channel pattern against the Swiss Franc. This pattern was formed on September 17 and...
USD/CHF The Downside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 1.0085
Our preference Short positions below 1.0085 with targets at 1.0040 & 1.0015 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.0085 look for further upside with...
Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.05% against the CHF and closed at 1.0061.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the...
USDCHF Bullish, Trades Near 20-Month High
USDCHF is trading close to Tuesday’s high of 1.0128, the pair’s firmest since March 2017.
The short-term bias is clearly bullish, with the pair having...
USD/CHF 1.0030 Expected
Pivot (invalidation): 1.0090
Our preference Short positions below 1.0090 with targets at 1.0050 & 1.0030 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.0090 look for further upside with...
Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Lower In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.38% against the CHF and closed at 1.0066.
On the macro front, Switzerland’s producer and...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Oil Industry Woes to Weigh on Growth
U.S. Highlights
Equity markets were volatile again this week as concerns over global growth remained top of mind for investors.
Economic data continues to...
Week Ahead – Italy and Brexit Risks to Remain Elevated ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend
The coming week will be an unusually quiet one for economic releases but political developments in Britain and Italy will likely provide plenty of...
Canadian Dollar Unchanged, Investors Eye Manufacturing Production
The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3175, down 0.01% on the day. On the release...
CADJPY Struggles Inside Bollinger Band Levels; Positive View in Long-Term
CADJPY is back in bullish mode in the daily timeframe over the last eight months that helped the market to head higher and peak...
Sterling Largely Consolidates Massive Losses with PM May’s Leadership on Tightrope
Here are the latest developments in global markets:
FOREX: The dollar was slightly up versus a basket of currencies, with the closely watched British...
CAD/CHF 4H Chart: Bullish Sentiment Next Week
The Canadian Dollar has been trading in a triangle-like formation pattern against the Swiss Franc September. The currency pair re-tested the upper boundary of...
USD/CAD Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3180
Our preference Short positions below 1.3180 with targets at 1.3135 & 1.3120 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.3180 look for further upside with...
USDCAD Loses Some Ground In Very Short-Term, Upside Structure Holds In Long-Term
USDCAD has been underperforming since yesterday, remaining below the four-month high of 1.3265. Currently, the price holds above the very short-term rising trend line,...
Canada’s Existing Home Sales Declined In October
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.48% against the CAD and closed at 1.3177.
On the macroeconomic front, Canada's existing home...
Could AUD/CAD Extend Rally Despite BOC Being More Hawkish Than RBA?
The AUD/CAD is an interesting pair to watch over the coming days. Although at the moment the Bank of Canada is clearly more hawkish...
Australia & New Zealand Weekly: Mixed Signals on Housing but Adjustment Process Seems Likely to Have Further to Run
Week beginning 19 November 2018
Mixed signals on housing but adjustment process likely to have further to run.
Australia: RBA Governor Lowe speaks, RBA...
Week Ahead – Italy and Brexit Risks to Remain Elevated ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend
The coming week will be an unusually quiet one for economic releases but political developments in Britain and Italy will likely provide plenty of...
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Prepares For Breakout
The Australian Dollar has been moving in a descending channel against the New Zealand Dollar since August 10 after the currency pair hit the...
AUDUSD Outlook: Aussie Eases After Recovery Stalled On Fading Optimism Over Possible US/China Deal
The Australian dollar holds in red on Friday and eases after three-day rally which resulted close above falling daily cloud and main bear-trendline which...
AUD/USD Bullish Bias Above 0.7255
Pivot (invalidation): 0.7255
Our preference Long positions above 0.7255 with targets at 0.7280 & 0.7300 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7255 look for further downside with...
Aussie Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.58% against the USD and closed at 0.7277.
LME Copper prices rose 1.3% or $82.0/MT...
Could AUD/CAD Extend Rally Despite BOC Being More Hawkish Than RBA?
The AUD/CAD is an interesting pair to watch over the coming days. Although at the moment the Bank of Canada is clearly more hawkish...
AUDUSD Analysis: Tests Weekly R1 At 0.7294
The Australian Dollar appreciated about 66 base points against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The currency pair breached both the 200-hour SMA and the...
AUD/CAD 4H Chart: Moving Towards Resistance Cluster
The Australian Dollar has increased its trading range significantly against the Canadian Dollar. The bullish sentiment began after the pair reversed from a low...
AUD/CHF 4H Chart: Remains Near 0.7325
The Australian Dollar has continued to trade in an ascending channel pattern against the Swiss Franc. This pattern was formed on September 17 and...
Australia & New Zealand Weekly: Mixed Signals on Housing but Adjustment Process Seems Likely to Have Further to Run
Week beginning 19 November 2018
Mixed signals on housing but adjustment process likely to have further to run.
Australia: RBA Governor Lowe speaks, RBA...
Brexit Worries Dominate Market Moves
Friday November 16: Five things the markets are talking about
Earlier this week U.K PM Theresa May agreed a draft Brexit withdrawal agreement with Brussels....
GBPNZD Breaks Below Trendline, Turns Negative In Medium-Term
GBPNZD crossed below a medium-term uptrend line taken from the lows of June in recent sessions, and also below its 200-day simple moving average...
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Prepares For Breakout
The Australian Dollar has been moving in a descending channel against the New Zealand Dollar since August 10 after the currency pair hit the...
NZDJPY Around 5-Month High; Rally Could be Overstretched
NZDJPY is trading not far below Wednesday’s five-month high of 77.44. The pair has staged a remarkable recovery from early October’s low of 72.25,...
NZDUSD Analysis: Remains Near Resistance Cluster
The New Zealand Dollar traded in a narrow ascending channel against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The currency pair appreciated by about 40 base...
NZDUSD Rallies To 4½-Month High, Positive Sentiment In Near Term
NZDUSD recorded a fresh four-and-a-half month high of 0.6821 on Thursday and is set to create the third bullish day in a row. The...
NZDUSD Analysis: Bullish Sentiment Today
The New Zealand Dollar appreciated about 67 base points against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The currency pair breached both the 50-and 100-hour SMAs...
Elliott Wave Analysis: NZDUSD Intra-Day Correction
NZDUSD is currently recovering, ideally unfolding a temporary wave b) as part of a three-wave reversal within a wave four correction. Resistance and a...
US Dollar Flying High on Hawkish Fed Statement
The US dollar rose against most major pairs on Friday. Only the Japanese yen was able to gain against the mighty greenback. The FOMC...
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