Tue, May 18, 2021 @ 23:39 GMT
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Dollar Selloff Intensifies, European Majors Winning

Dollar's selloff intensifies today as risk-on sentiment is slowly coming back to the markets. Yen is following as the next weakest. European majors are currently the main winners. Commodity currencies are somewhat lagging behind. In other markets, European indexes are trading slightly higher while US futures also point to...

Aussie Climbs, Consumer Confidence Next

The Australian dollar has recorded considerable gains on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7800, up 0.53% on the day. After sharp losses last week, the Aussie has clawed higher and is back in 78-territory. The US dollar received a lift last week, after a surprising surge...

Aussie Remains Firm With Unemployment Expected To Be Steady In April

The aussie has been trading sideways over the last three months with the employment report for April, due out on Thursday at 00:30 GMT, likely to attract some attention. The recession in Australia is over as the economic indicators have turned positive; however, the recovery still has a long...

Sterling Jumps on Reopening Optimism and Job Data, Risk Appetite Returning

Dollar and Yen are both under pressure again today, as broad based risk sentiments improved. In particular, the volatile Nikkei managed to close up more than 2%. New Zealand Dollar is leading other commodity currencies higher too. But Canadian Dollar and Sterling are the strongest ones for the week...

AUD/JPY recovers after RBA minutes, still bounded in consolidations

Minutes of RBA's May 4 meeting reiterated that rate hike was unlikely "until 2024 at the earliest". Members would "consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity" in July. Concerning QE, the members suggested...

RBA May Board Minutes Highlight Financial Conditions and Data Flow

The May Board minutes highlighted financial conditions and the data flow as key factors in the policy decisions at the July Board meeting. However the Board still supports the view that the conditions necessary to justify a rate increase are unlikely until 2024 at the earliest. The minutes from the...

Asian Open: Wall Street Edges Lower, GBP Firmer As UK Reopens

Wall Street edged lower overnight, giving back some on Friday’s strong gains, whilst yields ticked higher and the British pound was the strongest major as the UK eased lockdown restrictions. Asian Futures: Australia's ASX 200 futures are up 11 points (0.16%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at...

RBA Minutes Reaffirmed Likelihood of QE Expansion in July

The RBA minutes for the May minutes reaffirmed our view that further expansion in the asset purchase program would be announced later this year. The most likely timing for the announcement would be July. Domestically, the members noted that the economic was in the transition from recovery to expansion. The...

Currency Pair of the Week: GBP/AUD

The UK “Re-opening” began in March with schools opening once again.  In April, it was primarily outdoor activities. Today, it is primarily indoor activities and 10,000 people are now allowed at indoor events.  In June, all restrictions are expected to be lifted.  However, there are concerns that the Indian...

Asian Open: Equities Rebound And Shake Off Inflation Fears

It was a solid close for global equities last week, with European Bourses set to challenge record highs and Wall Street paring losses sustained earlier in the week. Asian Futures: Australia's ASX 200 futures are up 48 points (0.69%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,062.20 Japan's...

Week Ahead – Will the Bond Market Remain in a Holding Pattern?

Financial markets seem to be constantly recalibrating. The economic data is expected to be volatile and that should support the Fed’s patient stance on waiting for enough data to make a clear assessment over pricing pressures and the strength of the labor market recovery. Inflation expectations are weighing on sentiment,...

Week Ahead – Inflation Scare Shakes Markets, European PMIs Next

It was a wild week in financial markets. Stocks got smoked while the dollar clawed back some ground as inflation finally showed its teeth, reigniting worries about higher interest rates being on the horizon. The upcoming week seems calmer. There are no central bank meetings and the minutes of...

Cliff Notes: A Focus on Jobs, Investment and Household Welfare

Key insights from the week that was. Federal Budget 2021 was our focus this week. As detailed by Chief Economist Bill Evans in his video update as well as in our detailed budget report and infographic, building up Australia’s economy through investment and employment and by guaranteeing essential services is...

Aussie Slips, US Inflation Jumps

The Australian dollar has recorded losses on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7804, down 0.46% on the day. AUD/USD posted strong gains last week and appeared poised to break above the 79 line on Monday. However, the pair has headed lower, and is struggling to...

Asia Sinks In North American Noise

Inflation fears persist The noise level has risen to eardrum-bursting levels across the financial market space, with currencies, energy and precious metals having volatile intra-day sessions, but finishing near unchanged as the dust settled. The source of the market’s angst is inflation, and whether it is transitory or here to...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Asian and European markets today had to cope with growing worries on inflation that haunted US (equity) markets later in the session yesterday. European equities lose up to 2.5%. US indices are ceding another 1% (Dow) to 1.6% (Nasdaq) soon after the open. Investors apparently reached the point where...

Aussie Rally Continues on Solid Retail Sales

The Australian dollar is in positive territory for a fourth straight day. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7878, up 0.49% on the day. It’s up, up, up for the Australian dollar. AUD/USD climbed 1.71 last week, its best one-week performance since November 2020. The Aussie hasn’t missed...

Sterling Extends Rally, Yen Diving Continues, Euro Down on ECB Comments

Sterling rises strongly today, and overpowers Australia and New Zealand Dollar. On the other hand, Yen's selloff continues while Dollar is following closely behind. Despite strong investor confidence data, Euro is indeed under heavy selling pressure against the Pound and Aussie. Comments from ECB chief economist Philip Lane suggests...

Yen Broadly Lower, Sterling Rises, as a Relatively Light Week Starts

Dollar stabilizes mildly as another week starts, as selling focus temporarily turns to Yen. Both are weak nonetheless and stay near term bearish as least. Meanwhile, Sterling is trading slightly stronger in Asian session with help from recovery in crosses against Euro and Swiss Franc. But commodity currencies, as...

Australia NAB business confidence and condition rose to new records

Australia NAB business confidence jumped from 17 to 26 in April, a new survey high. Business conditions rose from 24 to 32, also a record high. The condition sub-component were also at record high. Trading condition rose from 35 to 40. Profitability rose from 25 to 33. Employment condition...

Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom in march, Victoria and WA led

Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom in March, slightly below the preliminary results of 1.4% mom. Comparing with March 2020, sales rose 2.2% yoy. Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys said: "Victoria (3.5 per cent) and Western Australia (5.5 per cent) led rises at the state and...

Week Ahead – Dollar Declines after Massive Payrolls Miss; Focus Shifts to Inflation

Wall Street went on a wild ride after a huge nonfarm payroll report miss reaffirms the Fed’s stance to do nothing. A massive slowdown in hiring was not expected and the knee-jerk reaction across the bond market might have paved the way for further dollar weakness. The US economic...

Week Ahead – US and UK Data to Lead Quiet Week as Dollar Can’t Make Up its Mind

After plenty of excitement from central banks and top-tier economic releases in the past couple of weeks, things will take a backseat over the next seven days. The slower news pulse could give way to some sideways action in currency markets as the US dollar fights off selling pressure....

Baseline Forecasts in RBA SOMP Do Not Support Policy Tightening in July

The RBA has lifted its forecasts for growth; labour market; and inflation/wages. However these forecasts are based on faster than expected recovery but not a sustained boost with the progress towards targeted conditions expected to be mediocre. Under those circumstances the best policy approach is to continue with the...

Dollar Dives on Huge NFP Miss, European Majors Jump

Dollar dives sharply in early US session after huge employment data miss. Canadian Dollar is slightly weaker, also on job data disappointment. Euro and Swiss Franc are quick to jump on assaulting the greenback. But Yen is not too far behind, as stocks could be under some pressure after...

DOW Hit Record, Dollar Sold off, Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls

Return of risk-appetite pushed DOW to new record overnight while Asian markets also firm up. Dollar was under some selling pressure, but it's still kept in range against except versus Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. Focus will turn to non-farm payroll report from today. A strong set of data...

RBA discussed upside and downside scenarios in SoMP

In the Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA reiterated that it's "committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target". The conditions for raising the cast rate is unlikely to be met "until 2024 at the earliest". RBA...

European Open: With A Turn Of The Screw, China Sends AUD Lower

An otherwise quiet trading session took a turn for the worse overnight, as China “indefinitely” suspended high-level economic talks with Australia. Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -35.4 points (-0.5%) and currently trades at 7,060.40 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 481.01 points (1.67%) and currently trades...

Aussie Mildly Lower on Tensions with China, Sterling Steady ahead of BoE

Australian Dollar trades generally lower today, after China announced to "indefinitely" suspended all  activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. But the spike on Aussie was relatively shallow and short-lived. Traders are quick to remember that the tariffs by China on some Aussie products didn't had much material impacts...

Canadian Dollar Higher With Commodity Currencies, Euro Weakens

Commodity currencies continue to trade as the stronger ones entering into US session. In particular, Canadian is helped by extended rally in oil prices. New Zealand Dollar continues to receive support from better than expected job data. Overall sentiments are positive with European stocks staging a rebound, while US...