Sluggish Dollar as Fed Gets More Reason to Wait, Brent Runs Out of Reasons to Rally
Dollar slipped again after July PPI undershot expectations, reinforcing fading Fed hike bets, annual producer inflation slowed from 5.5% to 4.7% and September hold odds rose to near 70% from around 45% a week ago. At the same time, Brent's six-session, roughly 12% rally has stalled around the $90 level as US-Iran headlines stop supplying fresh reasons to extend the risk premium.
RBNZ Survey Was Hawkish. So Why Did NZD Fall?
The RBNZ's latest Survey of Expectations pointed to a September hike and firmer growth, yet NZD fell across the board — because markets had already priced the hawkish rate path and instead traded an 81-basis-point collapse in near-term inflation expectations.
Dollar Is Giving EUR/USD Every Chance to Rally. So What’s Holding Euro Back?
EUR/USD has nearly everything bulls could ask for — a weaker Dollar, fading Fed hike bets, and rising ECB hike odds — yet the pair hasn't broken out, because Euro itself isn't confirming the move broadly across its other crosses.
Dollar Falls as July CPI Closes First Oil-Shock Chapter — August Opens the Next
Dollar weakened broadly after July CPI matched expectations, with headline inflation slowing from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y and core easing from 2.6% to 2.5%. September hold odds rose to around 58% from roughly 51% a day earlier. Core inflation has now fully round-tripped back to exactly where it stood before the Iran war first disrupted energy markets.
