Dollar Index Completes Double Bottom, Targets 100.59 as Markets Look Beyond Fed’s 4.1% 2027 Median
The Dollar Index confirmed a double-bottom reversal after Wednesday’s 25bp hike, with the 2-year Treasury yield and a weaker Dow reinforcing the signal that markets are pricing roughly 100bp of tightening—well beyond the Fed’s own 4.1% median through 2027.
One Oil Shock, Two Policy Tests: Fed SEP First, BoE Minutes Next
What's happening: Today's Fed hike is effectively certain, 92.4% in CME pricing to near 100% in OIS, with the real question being whether the...
EUR/USD Targets 1.1471—Will the Fed’s SEP Validate Four-Hike Pricing?
One Fed hike is effectively certain today, but markets are pricing four hikes total at an approximately quarterly cadence—whether the SEP validates that path, or its hawkish tail, will decide whether EUR/USD extends below 1.1471 or reverses back through 1.1653.
Silver’s $60 Floor Should Hold—Unless Gold Breaks First
Silver’s $60 floor should hold unless gold breaks first. A structural physical-market deficit gives the $60–60.44 zone real backing, but the most credible path to a break runs through a hawkish Fed SEP, gold losing its $4,230–4,254 support, and the Gold/Silver ratio magnifying the fallout.
