Dollar Rebounds as Fed Waller’s Hawkish Warning and Hot CPI Lift Fed Rate Expectations
Dollar strengthened broadly on Tuesday as Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish policy warning was reinforced by stronger-than-expected US inflation data, prompting markets to price a faster pace of monetary tightening. US two-year Treasury yield surged around 12bps to 4.68%, reflecting a sharp reassessment of near-term Fed policy expectations. However, Dollar’s advance has been relatively restrained, with DXY recovering to around 102.04 but still below last Friday’s close.
Silver Rebounds with Gold, but Gold/Silver Ratio Warns of Further Underperformance
Silver is bouncing with gold as a weaker Dollar and a rebound in stocks lift the metals, but the recovery looks corrective rather than a true reversal. With the gold/silver ratio still favoring gold and resistance overhead, today's US CPI release is the test of whether the rebound can extend or silver's underperformance resumes.
Brent Oil Breaks Key Support as Trump Holds Off Iran Strikes, 88.21 Comes Into Focus
Brent fell 5.85% to settle at USD 92.57 on Monday as Trump's signals against renewed Iran strikes pushed the market to discount escalation risk, breaking the 93.80 Fibonacci level. The US naval blockade remains in place, so the decline is a repricing of strike risk rather than a restoration of supply, and 88.21 is the next test.
Brent Oil Nears Critical 93.22 Support as Iran Tensions Ease, Dollar Retreats
Oil prices extended their decline on Monday as President Donald Trump downplayed the prospect of renewed US military strikes against Iran. Brent crude CFD fell nearly 3% to around 95, approaching last week’s low of 93.22, while Dollar Index retreated 0.39% to 101.881, surrendering more than half of Friday’s 0.70% rally, and European equities advanced.
