USD/JPY is testing 157.11 as one widening policy differential, not two separate stories—the Fed is accelerating into a new tightening phase while the BoJ’s divided vote reduced the odds of a back-to-back hike, both reinforcing the same Dollar-favorable repricing.
Dollar retreated from its post-FOMC highs as Brent crude dropped more than 3% to below $103 and WTI fell around 2.8% to $99.5, moving back under the psychologically important $100 level. DXY pulled away from levels above 100.3, while Sterling pared part of its initial decline after the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6–3 vote.
Gold tested its critical 4,230.70 support after Wednesday’s hawkish Fed hike but held, rebounding on a bullish four-hour divergence—a credible reversal setup that still needs a firm break of 4,368.20 to be confirmed.
The Dollar Index confirmed a double-bottom reversal after Wednesday’s 25bp hike, with the 2-year Treasury yield and a weaker Dow reinforcing the signal that markets are pricing roughly 100bp of tightening—well beyond the Fed’s own 4.1% median through 2027.