Gold's rally paused exactly at major trendline resistance near 4,450, but shallow follow-through selling suggests consolidation, not reversal — with this week's Iran truce deadline and early-September US data now the two catalysts that will decide the next move.
AUD/USD has broken out on external tailwinds — a weaker Dollar and rebounding risk appetite — but Thursday's jobs report lands in the middle of a genuine split between economists who think the RBA is done hiking and an RBA that keeps saying otherwise.
Dollar Index is approaching a critical support level as September Fed hike odds collapse from likely to roughly a two-in-three chance of a hold — not because tightening risk has disappeared, but because weaker jobs and softer consumer demand are limiting how far the Fed can realistically go.
The Canadian dollar's rally has accelerated sharply this week without help from oil, built instead on blowout GDP and jobs data — but whether this reflects genuine repositioning for a Bank of Canada hike or just a weak US Dollar remains unconfirmed.