Dollar Lacks Direction as US Midterms, Payrolls and AI Risks Set Up a Critical Week
Dollar traded without a clear direction during Monday’s European session, even though CME FedWatch showed the probability of a December 25bps hike rising from 70.7% at Friday’s settlement to 76.6%. The US 2-year Treasury yield was little changed around 4.59%, the 10-year eased toward 4.92%, and Brent crude fell toward $108 on reports that Washington and Tehran were exploring diplomatic options.
Gold Breaks Below $4,000 as Global Tightening and Liquidation Risks Converge — Is Today’s Bounce Just Relief?
Gold plunged 3.61% on Friday to 3,875.19, its first decisive daily close below $4,000, as Fed-led global tightening and liquidation-style selling converged. Monday's bounce toward 3,907 looks like relief within an established downtrend, with resistance at 4,083.41 and the next downside objective at 3,748.81.
RBA and BoE Hikes Largely Priced — Can GBP/AUD Escape Its Six-Month Range?
The RBA (4.60% to 4.85%, 81.2% priced) and the BoE (3.75% to 4.00%, 94.4% priced) are both expected to hike this week, so GBP/AUD will hinge on new forecasts and guidance beyond November rather than the hikes themselves. The cross remains inside its 1.8533–1.9360 six-month range.
AI Sell-Off Spreads Beyond Tech as Credit Risks Rise — Is a Deeper Market Correction Building?
Friday's 2.86% Nasdaq plunge and an 8.24% semiconductor-ETF drop extended a two-week AI-driven selloff that's now reaching corporate credit assessments—S&P Global cut Meta's outlook to negative. With Gold, Silver and Bitcoin all falling alongside tech even as Treasury yields drop, Nasdaq's 25,036.33, S&P 500's 7,507.77 and the 10-year yield's 4.815% are the critical tests for whether this becomes a broader correction.
