Oil Breaks $100, but FX Refuses to Follow the Script
Brent broke below $100 after Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline, capable of rerouting up to 4 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of global supply, around the Strait of Hormuz, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters Tehran could reopen Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases military pressure. Yet FX didn't confirm the move uniformly: CAD isn't broadly underperforming despite the drop, AUD and NZD diverged sharply from each other with no oil or data catalyst, and Dollar stayed broadly firm on the day's heat map even as oil fell.
Brent Oil Breaks Below $100 on Iran Hormuz Offer—but the Market Isn’t Convinced Yet
Brent oil broke below $100 after Iran reportedly offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, but the quick recovery toward 99.55 shows markets are testing the story, not embracing it—making 100.26 the level that separates a genuine break from a false trigger.
AI Optimism Overrides a More Hawkish Fed as Nasdaq Hits Record, Bitcoin Breaks Out
Nasdaq hit a fresh record and Bitcoin broke above $84,000 just days after the Fed hiked and raised its projected rate path, as AI investment conviction and a separate regulatory catalyst overpowered the higher-rate headwind—though breadth remains narrow, with only about 30% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day averages.
Markets Wait on Trump-Xi as Brent Tests $100—AUD and CAD Break From the Pack
Today's themes:
Broad Dollar/FX: little conviction as markets wait for Wednesday's flash PMIs and this week's Trump-Xi summit; Dollar Index holding around 100.22 with...
