NZD/USD and USD/CAD in Focus as RBNZ and BoC May Deliver Central Bank Week’s Biggest Surprises
Five major central banks announce decisions this week, but the RBNZ and BoC—not the Fed, ECB or BoJ—carry the greatest potential for a meaningful repricing. With NZD/USD testing 0.5766–0.5808 resistance and USD/CAD testing 1.3986–1.3927 support, the question for both is whether policy guidance validates the tightening markets have already priced in.
Brent Nears $120 as Nasdaq Tests 25,800 and US 10-Year Yield Hovers at 5%
Three markets are converging on decisive levels at once: Brent crude is testing $120 resistance on Middle East supply risk, the US 10-year yield is holding near 5% as inflation and growth fears compete, and Nasdaq is barely clinging to 25,803 support on AI-financing concerns. With the Fed, GDP, PCE and Big Tech earnings all landing next week, the interaction between these three could matter more than any single move.
Tech Selloff Eases, but Brent Near $115 and French Bond Stress Persist
The immediate equity-market retreat may be stabilizing, but geopolitical and sovereign risks have yet to ease materially. Oil markets are increasingly concerned with reports of possible US-Israeli strikes against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, particularly as supply buffers remain limited and regional security threats continue. In Europe, France’s private-sector activity has returned to contraction, compounding fiscal and political concerns ahead of Moody’s scheduled rating review.
Gold’s $4,000 Looks Indefensible as Liquidation Fears Overshadow Treasury Rally
Gold briefly traded below $4,000 even as the US 10-year yield fell ~17bps to 4.96% on a tech-led equity selloff—a breakdown in the usual rate relationship that points to liquidity and positioning pressures, and possibly forced liquidation. The break below 4,066.21 support puts the 3,942–3,924 zone in immediate focus, with a deeper risk toward 3,750 if selling accelerates.
