Hot US PPI Fails to Lift Yields as AI Credit Fears Put Nasdaq at a Tipping Point
US producer inflation surged far beyond expectations on Thursday, retail sales beat forecasts and layoffs remained contained, yet Treasury yields continued falling and the Dollar struggled to recover. The AI-related selloff that hit Nasdaq on Wednesday extended into Asia, sending South Korea’s KOSPI down 7.57% and Japan’s Nikkei down 4.90%, even as TSMC reported record third-quarter profit.
AUD/NZD and AUD/USD Turn Lower as Markets Price Less Than One More RBA Hike After Jobs Shock
Australia's September employment contracted by 39,300 and unemployment held at 4.7%, driving interest-rate markets to price less than one more 25bp RBA hike through mid-2027—sending AUD/NZD and AUD/USD both lower, with October 28's quarterly CPI now the key test of whether that repricing has gone too far.
AI Credit Fears Eclipse Hot CPI as Treasury Yields Reverse and Dollar Loses Haven Bid
A hot US CPI briefly sent the 10-year yield to 5.329% and DXY to 102.945, but both reversed sharply as AI financing fears hit CoreWeave, Oracle and Asian tech stocks—with the Dollar notably failing to catch a haven bid as yields retreated toward 5.10% and 101.285 becomes the next technical level to watch.
Dollar Breaks Higher as Core CPI Pushes October Fed Hike Odds Above 40%
The Dollar surged broadly on Wednesday after September’s US core CPI beat expectations, reversing the recent retreat in Treasury yields. The Dollar Index broke above 102.60 to reach 102.72, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped toward 4.94% and the 10-year yield rebounded above 5.30%. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a Fed hike at the October 28 meeting surged from 22.1% a day earlier to 43.7%, against 17.7% a week ago.
