Thu, Dec 03, 2020 @ 13:47 GMT
Home Tags Weekly

Weekly

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, most experts (65%) preferred the European currency. Graphical analysis, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1 also sided with the bulls. And this forecast turned out to be almost correct. "Almost", because...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Pandemic Dampens Holiday Cheer

U.S. Highlights Financial markets were more upbeat this week as investors cheered encouraging vaccine news and the start of the presidential transition. The S&P 500 is on track to end the week with a 2.3% gain from last week's close. The impact of the current wave of infections continues...

Week Ahead: Biden to Begin Transition, Coronavirus, Brexit (Again)

In a short week for the US, there were several headlines to keep everyone on their toes.   Joe Biden selected former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen as his pick for Treasury Secretary, the US Dow Jones Index rose above 30,000 for the first time, and It was another week of...

Forward Guidance: Government Support to Soften Blow of Job Losses

Optimism about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines has brightened the outlook for the economy in 2021. This is true even as escalating virus case counts and the re-imposition of containment measures take their toll on Canadian’s health and the economy in the final days of 2020. The second wave...

Week Ahead – Data Overload May Spoil Vaccine Euphoria; NFP to Lead the Pack

It’s NFP week and as investors battle the vaccine optimism against the short-term gloom, the latest jobs report from the United States may determine which way sentiment sways next. Canada will also publish jobs numbers along with its Q3 GDP print. The Reserve Bank of Australia, meanwhile, will kick...

Weekly Focus – Rays of Light in Europe

While Europe is seeing rays of light in getting the second COVID-19 wave under control, the situation in US is worsening fast. Many European countries now see a turnaround in new infections and this week France joined the club with a big decline in new cases. Italy is finally...

Cliff Notes: A Holiday Season Unlike Any Other

Key insights from the week that was. This week saw the release of Australian partial data related to next week’s Q3 GDP report. Meanwhile, in the US and Europe, the focus remained on COVID-19’s spread and how it can be suppressed. The construction work done survey was the first of two...

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD . Last week, we talked again about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. And then the forecast was appropriate: 50% of the experts sided with the bulls, 40%...

Markets Turned into Consolidation, With Conflicting Signals

Markets, including stocks, gold and currencies, were generally bounded in consolidative mode last week. News regarding coronavirus vaccines failed to give sentiments another boost. Instead, investors are waiting for fresh inspirations. Dollar ended as the worst performing one, but stayed inside prior week's range, except versus Kiwi. Euro, and...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Uneven and Uncertain Global Economic Recovery

U.S. Review House Party Soaring confidence among homebuilders, a pace of residential construction activity that topped expectations and existing homes selling at the fastest pace in 14 years were the highlights of a week in which housing data dominated the economic news. The consumer rebound has been another strong part...

The Weekly Bottom Line: It’s Always Darkest Before the Dawn

U.S. Highlights COVID-19 concerns took center stage again this week as cases surged to new daily records. This overshadowed optimism on vaccine progress and mostly positive economic data, with U.S. equity markets trending modestly lower as a result. Retail sales grew by 0.3% in October, extending their winning streak....

Forward Guidance: Early Signs of COVID Damage in Europe to be Closely Watched in Canada

We’ll get some early indications of how re-imposed virus containment measures are affecting Europe with the release of advance PMI survey data next week. The resurgence of COVID 19 there, and re-introduction of more significant restrictions on businesses and individuals, could foreshadow what’s to come in Canada given the...

Week Ahead – Let the Battles Commence

Focus back on fiscal response It appears we’re moving seemlessly from one major risk to another at the moment in the markets. The election is still technically live, Covid is spreading like wild fire and battles are commencing in Washington and Brussels as households and businesses line up for support...

Week Ahead – Vaccine Euphoria vs Lockdown Reality

There is not much on the agenda next week, but that doesn’t mean things will be quiet as the battle between longer-term vaccine hopes and the present lockdown reality continues to rage. The highlight on the economic calendar will be the latest PMIs, especially from the Eurozone, which will...

Expect US Treasury Rates to Rise and Curves to Steepen in 2021

The success of vaccine tests ; Australia's current strong growth story; and pivots around monetary policy are highly relevant to the market outlook. The approach to monetary policy in Australia is changing. In his speech last Monday, the Governor neatly set out the four aspects of current policy. The nature...

Weekly Focus: Short-Term Headwinds but Clouds Lifting Next Year

Good news on the COVID-19 vaccine front has raised hopes that we can get back to some kind of normality more quickly than previously thought. Phase 3 trials from both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have shown very high efficacy of 95% and if authorities approve the vaccines, they will be...

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD. Last week, we started talking about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. Yes, Joe Biden has won the presidential election. It seems to have won. Since Donald Trump's team...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Pandemic Prompts New Restrictions

U.S. Highlights Good news on the vaccine front cheered financial markets early in the week. However, as the week wore on and COVID-19 infections worsened, that optimism started to fray a bit. Many jurisdictions have increased restrictions as hospitals are feeling the impact. High frequency data are starting to...

Forward Guidance: COVID-19 Spread to Overshadow Economy’s Resilience

Data released next week will show that the economy entered the autumn on strong footing. Monday and Tuesday's reports are expected to reinforce that the exceptionally quick and robust rebound in Canadian housing markets continued. Earlier reports flagged that activity remained near record levels despite signs that some downtown...

Week Ahead: New Brexit Deadline and Daily Coronavirus Cases Continue to Set Records

For the most part, the US Presidential Elections are behind us and markets will turn their attention to the new November 19th Brexit “deadline” for negotiators to come up with a trade deal.  Markets are hoping a deal will be in place soon in order to present it to...

Week Ahead – Focus Stays on COVID

Virus rages on, a wrath of Fed speak, US retail sales slower pace Next week is filled with lots of Fed speak, an expected sixth consecutive increase with US retail sales, and possible COVID-1 vaccine results from Moderna.  Financial markets remain fixated on the coronavirus, with much attention falling on...

Week Ahead – Plenty of Data but Covid, Trump and Brexit Might Steal the Spotlight

After the US election and vaccine frenzy, economic data will move to the forefront in the coming week, with inflation and retail sales comprising the bulk of the releases. However, investors might be wrong to assume that the election and virus storms are over as Trump steps up his...

Weekly Focus – Light at the End of the Tunnel

Markets cheered news this week from Pfizer and BioNTech that released late stage phase 3 trial results of their vaccine candidate showing efficacy of more than 90% (see Very positive vaccine news - early Christmas gift?, 9 November). A risk rally consequently captured markets with value stocks strongly outperforming...

Aussie Dollar’s Vaccine Jolt

Global equities wobbled on Thursday but overall it is looking increasingly as though markets didn’t really need a ‘blue wave’ US election after all. The MSCI World equity index hit a record high on Wednesday, emerging market currencies have jumped over the past week and in the G10, commodity...

Stocks Ready for Upside Breakout, But Yen Crosses Seem Not Agreeing

Politics aside, stock investors were the biggest winners of US presidential elections, while Dollar holders were the losers. The greenback ended as the worst performing one, followed by Yen by a wide margin. Australian Dollar shrugged of RBA easing and ended as the strongest, leading other commodity currencies. European...

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD. As we expected in the previous forecast, thanks to Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election, the growth of U.S. stocks and encouraging reports from the front against COVID-19, the euro and other competitors of the dollar can very quickly recover...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Parsing Economic Data while Awaiting Election Results

U.S. Review Parsing Economic Data while Awaiting Election Results As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states. Total payrolls rose by 638K in October. Growth continues to...

The Weekly Bottom Line: What a Year this Week Has Been

U.S. Highlights Four days of vote counting has not yet produced a clear winner in the presidential election, with the Senate in a tight race and the House won by Democrats. There was no change to the policy announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but policy makers...

US Election Outcome Adds to Cloudy Economic Outlook

A quiet week for data releases lies ahead, leaving time to absorb the results of the US presidential election – and what increasingly looks likely to be a Biden Presidency. The outcome of the US vote matters for Canada, with a Biden win likely to mean less international trade...

Week Ahead: A Joe Biden Presidency? Return of Brexit and Coronavirus to the Headlines

With the lack of economic data this week, expect US Presidential drama to be in play this week. As of Friday afternoon, it appears that most media outlets are ready to call Joe Biden the 46th President of the United States.  However, don’t expect current President Donald Trump to go...