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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD. As predicted by most experts (60%), the first half of the week benefited the dollar, strengthening it and dropping the EUR/USD pair to support 1.2050. The US inflation report, released on Wednesday May 12, pointed to an impressive rise in April and...

Stocks Stayed in Up Trend, Yields Range Bound, Dollar Lost Downside Momentum

Market debates heated up last week with the influx of some US economic data. On the other hand, the concerns on overheating inflation was legitimate given the much stronger than expected headline and core CPI reading from the US. On the other hand, poor retail sales, and prior week's...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Reopening Comes with a Steep Price Tag

Summary United States: Reopening Comes with a Steep Price Tag The leap in consumer prices this week laid bare that challenges in meeting soaring demand come with a cost. There were few signs of the mismatch between supply and demand beginning to come back into balance. April retail sales were...

The Weekly Bottom Line: U.S. Small Businesses Struggle to Hire Workers, Despite High Unemployment

U.S. Highlights Consumer and producer price inflation surprised on the upside on the back of rebounding energy prices, supply disruptions and strong fiscal-stimulus fueled demand. Despite inflation overshooting 2%, several Fed officials reassured markets that there won’t be any tapering of asset purchases any time soon since the spike...

Week Ahead: Inflation or Stagflation? The UK Reopens and the US Takes it All Off

US inflation data has been coming in higher than expected. Will it be the same in other parts of the world? Last week, inflation data came in hot for April in the US.  However, since the beginning of the month, manufacturing and jobs data were weaker than expected. Is the...

Week Ahead – Will the Bond Market Remain in a Holding Pattern?

Financial markets seem to be constantly recalibrating. The economic data is expected to be volatile and that should support the Fed’s patient stance on waiting for enough data to make a clear assessment over pricing pressures and the strength of the labor market recovery. Inflation expectations are weighing on sentiment,...

Forward Guidance: Firming Inflation Pressures to Intensify with Reopening Activity

We expect next week’s Canadian inflation report will show headline price growth jumped to 3.3% in April, in part reflecting lower bases last year when the economy closed down. Energy prices in particular came under signficant downward pressure last spring but have recovered such that gasoline prices were up...

Week Ahead – Inflation Scare Shakes Markets, European PMIs Next

It was a wild week in financial markets. Stocks got smoked while the dollar clawed back some ground as inflation finally showed its teeth, reigniting worries about higher interest rates being on the horizon. The upcoming week seems calmer. There are no central bank meetings and the minutes of...

Cliff Notes: A Focus on Jobs, Investment and Household Welfare

Key insights from the week that was. Federal Budget 2021 was our focus this week. As detailed by Chief Economist Bill Evans in his video update as well as in our detailed budget report and infographic, building up Australia’s economy through investment and employment and by guaranteeing essential services is...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Growing Pains: Extended Lead Times, Supply Chain Constraints, Difficulty Finding Labor

Summary United States: Growing Pains: Extended Lead Times, Supply Chain Constraints, Difficulty Finding Labor The unmistakable message delivered in this week's data is that the U.S. economy could be growing even faster were it not for limited access to essential raw materials and labor. The April jobs report was a...

The Weekly Bottom Line: How Far is the U.S. Labor Market from Home?

U.S. Highlights Job growth slowed in April, with just 266k jobs created in the month. With a growing labor force, the unemployment rate edged up to 6.1% from 6.0% in March. ISM manufacturing and services indexes also pointed to slower growth in April, but price sub-indexes continued to accelerate....

Week Ahead: Coronavirus and Inflation Will Take Center Stage as Jobs Numbers are Pondered

Traders will be watching CPI and PPI from both China and the US Unless there is a prominent central bank interest rate decision, the second week of a month tends to slow down in terms of economic data.  That is indeed the case this month.  The pace of the re-openings...

Forward Guidance: Capacity Pressures Weigh on Manufacturers; Vaccinations Accelerating

Statistics Canada already provided a preliminary estimate that manufacturing sales bounced back a sizeable 3.5% in March (after a 1.6% February pullback) as curtailments on auto production related to the global semi-conductor shortage eased. Those disruptions pushed finished motor vehicle sales down 22% over January and February, with negative...

Week Ahead – Dollar Declines after Massive Payrolls Miss; Focus Shifts to Inflation

Wall Street went on a wild ride after a huge nonfarm payroll report miss reaffirms the Fed’s stance to do nothing. A massive slowdown in hiring was not expected and the knee-jerk reaction across the bond market might have paved the way for further dollar weakness. The US economic...

Week Ahead – US and UK Data to Lead Quiet Week as Dollar Can’t Make Up its Mind

After plenty of excitement from central banks and top-tier economic releases in the past couple of weeks, things will take a backseat over the next seven days. The slower news pulse could give way to some sideways action in currency markets as the US dollar fights off selling pressure....

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD. The last week of April was marked by three events: the Fed meeting, as well as the publication of data on the US and Eurozone GDP. As for the US Fed, the results of its meeting were predictable. The interest rate was left...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: U.S. Recovery Is Well on Its Way

Summary U.S. Review: U.S. Recovery Is Well on Its Way The U.S. economy expanded at a rapid clip in the first quarter and incoming data continue to paint a picture of an economic recovery gaining momentum. The public health situation continues to rapidly improve on a national scale with increased...

The Weekly Bottom Line: The Loonie’s Rise

U.S. Highlights America’s economic recovery picked up steam at the start of 2021, with growth accelerating to 6.4% (annualized). Growth was powered by consumption, which expanded by 10.7% (annualized). President Biden unveiled the American Families Plan this week. The plan calls for $1.8 trillion in new spending on childcare,...

Week Ahead: Central bank Recap/Preview, the Recovery, and Jobs

More central banks this week with the RBA and BOE up next This weekend begins the month of May, and brings holidays on Monday in the UK, China, and Japan.  With a busy week to end April, including an extremely dovish FOMC and BIG tech earnings, the focus turns primarily...

Week Ahead – BoE and RBA Rate Decisions in Focus; US April NFP Report Could Show Over a Million Jobs Created

Everyone on Wall Street is trying to figure out if the peak in Treasury yields will stick for a while now that the US is approaching peak growth. The best expansion since World War 2 is being accompanied with a Fed that remains committed to supporting the economy until...

Week Ahead – RBA to Stand Pat but BoE Might Taper; Can a Bumper NFP Excite after Dovish Fed?

The central bank theme will continue over the next seven days with policy meetings by the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England. The RBA will probably maintain some caution after weak inflation figures but there is some speculation the BoE could start to taper its asset purchases...

Forward Guidance: Canadian Job Recovery to Take a Step Back in April

Canadian employment likely pulled back in April as virus containment measures were re-imposed in parts of the country. We expect an 85k drop, heavily concentrated in another round of job losses in the retail and hospitality sectors. That would still only rectrace about 15% of the whopping 562k job...

Weekly Focus – Central Banks Remain in Wait-and-See Mode

The global Covid-19 situation remains challenging. New global coronavirus cases rose for a ninth consecutive week by a record 5.7 million, as a 52% surge in India outweighed declines in most regions. Still, on a positive note the vaccination drive in Europe is picking up pace and the US...

Forex Forecast And Cryptocurrencies Forecast

First, a review of last week's events: EUR/USD. The US economy is showing impressive growth. Europe, on the other hand, is in a widespread lockdown and, apparently, is experiencing a second recession. The share of those who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine in the EU is 25.1%, while in...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Raising the Bar Even Further

U.S. Review: Raising the Bar Even Further This week's lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week's blowout retail sales report. We have revised our forecast for Q1 growth up to a 5.5% pace from 4.8% previously, and growth for the year...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Big Events Next Week Drive Markets

U.S. Highlights Without much noteworthy economic data this week, market sentiment soured on a leaked Biden administration proposal to raise the maximum tax rate on capital gains of high-income taxpayers. First quarter GDP data and a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve are also on the docket next week....

Week Ahead: Central Banks, Coronavirus, Joe Biden and Big Tech Earnings

Heading into the end of April, central banks and earnings will give direction to the markets.  The ECB held its ground last week while the BOC chose to taper bond purchases from C$4 billion per week to C$3 billion per week. Are the FOMC and the BOJ in the...

Week Ahead – Fed to Stay the Course, Huge Earnings Week for Big-Tech, and OPEC+ Meets

Wall Street could see more volatility during a very busy trading week that is filled with a wrath of central bank decisions, surging international COVID-19 cases, solid economic data, effects of stimulus working its way through the economy, and pent-up consumer demand. Financial markets are edge, especially considering how...

Week Ahead – Fed to be a Yawn but Glowing US Data Could Spoil the Calm

Never have central bankers so seemingly sung from the same hymn sheet as Fed policymakers have in the past few weeks. Having successfully aligned market expectations, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to repeat the message that QE tapering is not on the near-term horizon when it meets next...

Forward Guidance: Canadian GDP Continued to Recover ahead of Third Virus Wave

Broader economic trends in Canada continued to improve in February and March, as containment measures eased (at least temporarily) following the winter wave of virus spread. Statistics Canada already reported a preliminary estimate that GDP rose 0.5% in February, and we look for a similar, if not larger gain...