Fri, Jan 22, 2021 @ 22:31 GMT
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Central Banks Ready and Willing

Stock markets are broadly flat on Thursday as numerous central banks held their first policy meetings of the year and earnings season continued. So much focus has been on the transition in Washington and Joe Biden's inauguration but today we've had multiple major monetary policy meetings, albeit no action from...

WTI Futures Remain Close To 11-Month High, Indicators Look Weak

WTI crude oil futures are continuing the long-term buying interest, reaching in the previous sessions an eleven-month high of 53.94. However, the upside momentum is a bit weak as the MACD is falling beneath its trigger line in the positive area, while the RSI is flattening below the overbought...

USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Is it Time for a Long-Term Change in Tend?

As with any currency pair, there are an abundance of factors to consider when trying to forecast price.   Those factors can be broken down into technical factors and fundamental factors.   On the technical side, price action is paramount.  However, for USD/CAD, one must also include the correlation between USD/CAD and...

Canadian Dollar in Spotlight, With Eyes on BoC and Oil Price

Canadian Dollar is a main focus today with BoC rate decision featured. Recent strong risk-on markets haven't given the Loonie much lift. It's upside is somewhat capped as oil price turned into consolidation after last week's spike. Also, traders turned cautious before BoC's indication on the chance of a...

Stocks Bounce Back, Yellen Testimony Eyed, BAC Earnings, Euro Holds Gains after ZEW

Stocks bounce back, Yellen Testimony eyed, BAC earnings, Euro holds gains after ZEW, Oil rebounds, Gold higher, Bitcoin's competition. US stocks are off to a strong start as investors focus on President-elect Biden's COVID relief bill and as earnings season heats up. The US will see more stimulus in Biden's...

WTI Futures Consolidate But Continue To Favour Upside

WTI oil futures appear to be finding a foothold on the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) and the cloud’s upper surface, after the pullback from the 11-month high region of 53.91. The Ichimoku lines are reflecting the sideways edging in the price, while the climbing SMAs are promoting additional...

Oil Prices Slide, Gold Range Trades

Oil prices correct lower Oil prices suffered a sharp fall on Friday, with a rising US dollar enough to see extended speculative longs heading for the exit door. Brent crude fell by 2.90% to USD54.80 a barrel, and WTI fell by 2.95% to USD52.10. In Asia, both contracts have eased...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil Price Lost Momentum after Gaining Three Weeks in a Row

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 12, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +9 068 contracts to 527 717 for the week. Speculative long position rose +8 183 contracts, while shorts slipped -885 contracts. While recording its third consecutive weekly gain,...

Stocks Down Despite Fed Assurances

US futures are pointing to a slightly softer open on Friday, ending the week on a slightly negative note despite a massive stimulus proposal and reassuring comments from the Fed. Joe Biden unveiled his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan on Thursday, a number more or less in line with what had...

Elliott Wave View: Oil About To End Short Term 5 Waves Impulse

Elliott Wave structure of the rally in Oil from December 23, 2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from December 23 low, wave ((i)) ended at 48.62 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 47.18. The commodity then continues the rally higher in wave ((iii)) with...

US Dollar Higher ahead of Powell

Another relatively mixed session on Thursday, with the US opening marginally higher ahead of the open as investors weigh up reported stimulus plans from the incoming Biden administration. While the promise of more Covid relief is good news for the economy and markets this year, fears that it could prompt...

US Crude Inventory Continued to Trim, while Petroleum Stockpile Gained Further

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -9.43 mmb to 1334.27 mmb in the week ended January 8. Crude oil inventory dropped -3.25 mmb (consensus: -2.27 mmb) to 482.21 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...

CAD to Gain Further On Risk Appetite and Higher Crude Oil Price, Upside Limited by BOC Actions

Similar to Australian dollar, Canadian dollar this year should continue to benefit from broad-based USD weakness, global recovery, and rebound in commodity, in particular crude oil, prices. However, with the US as its largest trading partner, BOC should track the Fed’s monetary policy closely, and avoid excessive appreciation of...

Dollar Reversed as Fed Officials Talk Down Tapering, Sterling Strong

Dollar dropped notably overnight and stays weak in Asian session. Some Fed officials toned down the talk of tapering the asset purchase program, or any monetary stimulus removal. Sterling, on the other hand, is extending this week's rally, after BoE talked down negative interest rates. The forex markets are...

WTI oil in upside acceleration, targets 56.41 next

WTI crude oil accelerates higher this week and hits as high as 53.90 so far. The break of near term channel resistance is a sign of upside acceleration. That's supported by the movement in daily MACD too. Production cut of OPEC+, as well as expectations for strong global economic...

WTI Oil Outlook: Oil Eases from New Multi-Month High, Pressured by Demand Recovery Fears, Stronger Dollar

WTI oil fell over $1 on Monday, easing from new multi-month high at $52.74, posted last Friday, after nearly 9% weekly rise (the biggest one-week gain since early May), as bulls faced strong headwinds on approach to pivotal barrier at $53.21 (200WMA). Stronger dollar on hopes for more stimulus to...

Oil And Gold Start Week In Red

Oil's rally fades in Asia Oil had a positive session on Friday, both Brent and WTI recording over 3.0% gains boosted by Biden stimulus hopes. Risk aversion seen in other asset classes has set in on energy markets today in Asia though. Brent crude has fallen 1.70% to USD55.30 a...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold and Silver Prices Corrected Sharply on Profit-taking

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 5, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +6 918 contracts to 518 649 for the week. Speculative long position jumped +28 438 contracts, while shorts rose +21 520 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

An Incredible Start to the Year

The new year is off to an incredible start with events on Capitol Hill last night highlighting just how big a job Joe Biden has in bringing the country back together again. We've become quite de-sensitized to what would once be considered outrageous in recent years but what we saw...

US Crude Inventory Declined, While Petroleum Stockpiles Soared

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -1.66 mmb to 1343.7 mmb in the week ended January 1. Crude oil inventory fell -8.01 mmb (consensus: -2.13 mmb) to 485.46 mmb. Stockpile decreased in ALL 5...

Crude Oil Price Hits $50, EUR/USD Extends Gains

Key Highlights Crude oil price traded above the $50.00 mark for the first time since February 2020. Major supports are forming near $48.00 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD. EUR/USD extended its rise, and traded to a new multi-month high above 1.2300. The US ISM Services PMI is likely...

US oil inventories dropped -8m barrels, WTI firm above 50

US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -8m barrels in the week ending January 1. At 485.5m barrels, oil inventories are about 9% above the five year average for this time of the year. Gasoline inventories rose 4.5m barrels. Distillate rose 6.4m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -2.4m barrels. Total commercial petroleum...

Markets Digest Georgia Results

We're seeing caution on the US open on Wednesday, as the final votes are counted in Georgia and the Democrats head for an unlikely double win. The victory means the Senate is split, handing an effective majority to the Democrats who now control all three chambers. While that doesn't mean...

Dollar Declines Further, Oil Up on Production Cuts

Dollar's decline resumed overnight and stays soft in Asian session today. Though, intensity of the selloff remains relatively weak. FOMC minutes is a feature today but that's unlikely to provide any inspiration for the greenback. Sterling is indeed still the worst performing one for the week for now, as...

Oil Price Surges On OPEC Output Talks Optimism And Geopolitical Tensions

WTI oil price surged on Tuesday, making daily gains of 4.6% so far and on track for the biggest one-day rally since Nov 9. Reduced risk sentiment deflated oil price on the first trading day in 2021, but bulls quickly regained traction, despite persisting fears of stalling demand growth on...

WTI oil reclaims 50 after Saudi Arabia agrees 1m bpd voluntary production cut

Oil prices are given a lift after Saudi Arabia agreed to a larger production cut with OPEC+ allies. The world's largest oil exporter agreed to make additional, voluntary cut of 1m barrels per day in February and March. The move led to an overall cut of over 900k bpd...

Caution ahead of Georgia Vote

US futures are marginally lower ahead of the open on Tuesday after a difficult start to the year. There was some positive momentum coming from Asia and Europe but that quickly petered out on Wall Street. Last year ended on such a high that I wonder whether we're just seeing...

WTI crude oil to surge through 50, target channel resistance

WTI crude oil resumes up trend today and hits as high as 49.74 so far. Oil price is lifted by news that OPEC+ is going to cap output at current levels in February. The pandemic is likely to continue to limit economic recovery for the near term, with current...

The COVID-19 Vaccine and Market Implications

As the COVID-19 vaccine is released, life will revert to the “old normal”. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be good for the markets! It has been over a year since the first cases of the COVID-19 were diagnosed in Wuhan, China. As a result of the virus, we...

Dollar and Yen Weaken Again on Strong Risk-on Market

Dollar turns softer again in Asian session today as markets are back in full risk on mode. Following the record runs in US, Nikkei is also hitting new 30-year high. Yen is following as second weakest for now. However, risk appetite is not clearly seen elsewhere. Australian and Canadian...