Tue, Dec 01, 2020 @ 23:36 GMT
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Canada’s GDP To Bounce Back In Q3 But Loonie Still Trails Peers

Canada will post its third quarter GDP figures on Tuesday (13:30 GMT) and like other advanced economies that have reported before it, the North American economy is expected to have rebounded sharply in the summer months. However, with daily coronavirus cases accelerating lately in Canada too, the recovery may...

Yen Recovers in Subdued Trading, Gold Consolidates Losses in Tight Range

Trading continues to be subdued in Asia as markets are in holiday mood. Yen is trading mildly higher overall, but remains the worst performing one for the week. Dollar's selloff slowed somewhat, but remains the second worst for the week. Commodity currencies are set to close the week as...

BoC Macklem: The very rapid growth of reopening is over

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told a parliamentary committee that "the very rapid growth of the reopening phase is now over". The economy has "has entered in the slower-growth recuperation phase". GDP would have shrunk around -5.5% in 2020 and it's expected to grow around 4% in 2021 and 2022. Growth...

Canadian CPI Inched up in October

Headline CPI grew 0.7% year-over-year in October Bank of Canada's preferred core measures ticked up but remained below target Weak economy still keeping price growth in check Headline consumer price inflation growth rose to 0.7% in October, up from 0.5% in September. Growth in food prices ticked up to...

Forward Guidance: COVID-19 Spread to Overshadow Economy’s Resilience

Data released next week will show that the economy entered the autumn on strong footing. Monday and Tuesday's reports are expected to reinforce that the exceptionally quick and robust rebound in Canadian housing markets continued. Earlier reports flagged that activity remained near record levels despite signs that some downtown...

BOC Recalibrated QE with Focus on Long-term Bonds. Downgraded Growth for 2021

BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in October. The central bank explicitly noted that the policy rate will stay unchanged at least until 2023. Meanwhile, it announced to “recalibrate” the QE program, reducing weekly purchases “gradually” to at least CAD 4 billion and turning the focus to...

BoC “Calibrates” QE But Stays the Course with Stimulus

Overnight rate held at 0.25%, set to stay there until 2023 QE purchases trimmed back slightly, maturities extended Near-term GDP forecasts revised higher but protracted recovery still expected The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged this morning and maintained its guidance that the overnight rate will be held...

BoC Recalibrates Quantitative Easing Program

The Bank of Canada kept its key policy interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. However, the Bank did move to "recalibrate" the quantitative easing (QE) program by orienting purchases towards longer-term bonds, which have a more direct impact on households and businesses. Moreover, overall purchases will be gradually reduced...

USD/CAD Jumps after BoC Holds Rates

USD/CAD has recorded sharp gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3224, up 1.07% on the day. The pair is currently at its highest level since October 8. In the US, today’s releases are limited to tier-2 events. Bank of Canada holds interest rates...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Asian stocks showed resilience this morning with China and South Korea even closing in green as the virus isn’t the dominant factor for regional markets anymore. This clearly contrasts with the US and even more so with Europe. Virus curves are rising at an ever accelerating pace. European governments...

BoC stands pat, no rate hike until into 2023

BOC kept overnight rate unchanged at effective lower bound of 0.25% as widely expected. Rate will be kept there "until into 2023" when economic slack is absorbed to sustain inflation above 2% target. The QE program is recalibrated to shift towards "longer-term bonds" while total purchases to be lowered to...

(BOC) Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, recalibrates its quantitative easing program

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing...

Euro Under Fire As New Lockdowns Loom

Euro on the chopping block ahead of potential French lockdown Markets in a sour mood overall as Trump pulls ahead in Florida polls Stocks under heavy pressure, defensive yen shines Coming up: Central bank decisions in Canada and Japan Euro finally wakes up to the risks The single currency is...

Euro Tumbles on Coronavirus and Lockdown, Yen Riding Higher

European majors are all trading broadly lower today on worsening coronavirus spread and return to lockdowns. Mild risk aversion keeps the Japanese Yen afloat but it's outperformed slightly by Aussie, after slightly stronger than expected Australian CPI reading. Dollar is mixed for the moment, benefitting little from risk aversion....

CAD/JPY accelerating downwards as BoC awaited

Canadian dollar is trading mixed in Asian session today, as markets await BoC rate decision. No change in monetary policy is expected as overnight rate will be kept at 0.25%. There might be some adjustments in the asset purchases program but the fine-tuning has already started earlier this month....

Bank of Canada Decision: Waiting It Out

The BoC will wrap up its meeting at 14:00 GMT Wednesday. The domestic economy is doing well, and even though covid infections have risen lately, they remain far lower than those in other countries. This suggests the Bank is unlikely to act, especially since policymakers will want to evaluate...

Dollar Recovers Mildly as Markets Await BoC, BoJ, ECB and GDPs

Dollar recovers mildly in relatively quiet markets today while Aussie and Euro turn softer. But major pairs and crosses are generally keep well inside Friday's range, suggesting limited movements so far. Three central banks will meet this week including BoC, BoJ and then ECB. Lots of heavy weight economic...

BoC to stand pat while EUR/CAD preparing for bullish breakout

BoC is widely expected to keep the overnight rate unchanged at the effective lower bound of 0.25% this week. Bank rate and deposit rate will be kept at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively. Meanwhile, as the central has already been tweaking its asset purchases program, there might be some more...

BOC Preview – Staying Cautious about the Uneven Recovery

BOC will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% next week’s meeting. After surprising unwinding of some operations last week, the rest of easing measures put in place since March should remain unchanged. Inter-meeting data flow shows that economic recovery is underway in Canada. However, the pace is...

Week Ahead – ECB, BoC, and BoJ Serve as Appetizers for US Election

With less than two weeks to go until the US election, markets are on red alert as opinion polls in key battleground states have tightened. In the meantime, there are three central bank meetings and a ton of data to keep things exciting. The ECB could steal the show...

USD/CAD Continues to Range-Trade

USD/CAD is almost unchanged for a second straight day. In Tuesday’s North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3184, down 0.06% on the day. In the US, construction releases were positive in September. Housing Starts were up 1.9%, while Building Permits climbed 5.2%. Investors eye Canadian inflation, retail sales It...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Fiscal Deal or No Deal

U.S. Highlights Fiscal policy (or lack thereof) drove much of the news cycle this week. On the same day the Federal Reserve Chair made the case for more fiscal support, President Trump tweeted that negotiations were being cut off. Trump changed his mind later in the week, and talks...

Canadian CPI Grew Moderately in August

Headline CPI grew 0.1% year-over-year in August Ex-food and energy prices grew 0.5%, unchanged from July Underlying price trends firmed slightly but still soft Headline inflation was subdued again in August, growing just 0.1% year-over-year after edging lower to that same pace in July. Growth in food prices continued...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Labor Focus

U.S. Review Labor Focus In the holiday-shortened week, analysts' attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound. Aside from claims, inflation data were also a highlight this week. Prices continued to pick up in August,...

The Weekly Bottom Line: A Wide Dispersion of Expectations for Recovery

U.S. Highlights A wide dispersion of forecasts for U.S. growth over the next year reflects high levels of uncertainty around the duration of the health crisis as well as future government supports. Assuming a modest fiscal package passes Congress this fall and a vaccine becomes available by the middle...

Week Ahead: The Fed, BOJ, and BOE, Oh My

Last week the BOC and ECB stayed the course regarding Monetary Policy for their economies.  This week, the Fed, BOJ and the BOE get their chance to shine as they meet to discuss next steps.  Japan’s LDP will be selecting the successor to Abe as well.  Brexit headlines are...

The ECB Hasn’t Many Arrows Left On Its Bow: All Eyes On President Lagarde’s Press Conference

Markets It's D-day in Frankfurt. The ECB concludes its monetary policy meeting with eyes on President Lagarde's press conference afterwards. A meeting which probably wouldn't have gained much attention if it weren't for Chief Economist Lane's comments on the single currency. With EUR/USD testing the psychologic 1.20 mark for the...

Euro Awaits ECB for Next Move, Sterling Weakness Persists

Sterling remains the weakest one for the week, without a doubt in the otherwise mixed forex markets. Overall risk sentiments stabilized with the overnight rebound in US stocks. Dollar has pared back much of this week's gains together with Yen. Euro is currently the stronger one for today, as...

BOC Left Policy Rate and QE Unchanged, Pledged to Calibrate Measures when Needed

BOC announced to leave the policy rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% and maintain the pace of asset purchases at CAD 5B/week of Canadian government bonds. While acknowledging that economic activities have rebounded more than expected since the July meeting, the members remained cautious about the outlook,...

BoC Reiterates Commitment to Monetary Stimulus

The Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25% this morning. The Bank reiterated that it will continue the asset purchase program at its current pace of at least $5bn/week of Government of Canada bonds. As in the July Monetary Policy Report, the Bank provided guidance...