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Wall Street Snaps Losing Streak, But Retail Sales Get The Final Say

Stocks bounce back as Fed calms tapering nerves, dollar retreats US retail sales today could spark another round of volatility Bank of Canada chief talks down loonie, FX market quiet overall Equity markets roar back The inflation scare on Wall Street turned out to be ‘transitory’ after all. The major...

Rate and Crude Oil Price to Support CAD Outlook

Year-to-date, Canadian dollar is the best performing currency against US dollar. Indeed, most of the gains has been accumulated after the April BOC meeting, at which policymakers announced QE tapering and hinted about rate hike in as soon as next year. Despite recent disappointment in macroeconomic data, we expect...

Sentiment Further Stabilized as Focus Turns to US Retail Sales

The forex markets are steady in Asian session today as sentiment stabilized, following strong rebound in US stocks overnight. Dollar is currently the second strongest for the week, just next to Sterling. But no key level was taken out with the rebound in the last few days. The greenback...

BoC Macklem: Strong Canadian Dollar does create come risk

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said yesterday that recent rise in commodity prices is "goods news for Canada. But a stronger Canadian Dollar "does create some risk." "If it moves a lot further, that could have a material impact on our outlook and it is something we have to take into...

Loonie May Return To Losses After April’s Employment Report

The loonie has been enjoying a strong upside movement against the US dollar over the last month as investors are waiting for April's employment report on Friday at 17:00 GMT. As the vaccine rollout continues, Ontario is planning to expand eligibility for coronavirus vaccines during May, with shipments increasing...

Canadian Dollar Rally to Continue after a Strong Week, But Medium Term Strength Uncertain

Canadian Dollar ended last week as the strongest ones on a couple of factors. With some near term resistance taken out, such rally will likely continue for the near term. Swiss Franc ended as the second strongest. While Dollar was pressured for most of the week, it staged a...

The Weekly Bottom Line: The Loonie’s Rise

U.S. Highlights America’s economic recovery picked up steam at the start of 2021, with growth accelerating to 6.4% (annualized). Growth was powered by consumption, which expanded by 10.7% (annualized). President Biden unveiled the American Families Plan this week. The plan calls for $1.8 trillion in new spending on childcare,...

Week Ahead: Central bank Recap/Preview, the Recovery, and Jobs

More central banks this week with the RBA and BOE up next This weekend begins the month of May, and brings holidays on Monday in the UK, China, and Japan.  With a busy week to end April, including an extremely dovish FOMC and BIG tech earnings, the focus turns primarily...

Week Ahead – RBA to Stand Pat but BoE Might Taper; Can a Bumper NFP Excite after Dovish Fed?

The central bank theme will continue over the next seven days with policy meetings by the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England. The RBA will probably maintain some caution after weak inflation figures but there is some speculation the BoE could start to taper its asset purchases...

Aussie Tumbles after CPI, Yen Falls as FOMC Awaited

Australian Dollar tumbles broadly in Asian session after weaker than expected CPI data. Sterling is following as the second weakest , and then New Zealand Dollar. Dollar firms up mildly as traders await FOMC rate decision, but the rebound is mainly centered against Yen and Aussie. Indeed, Yen was...

BoC Macklem: Further QE adjustments will be gradual and deliberated

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance that "the economy is making good progress". But "a complete recovery will still take some time" with the third wave of coronavirus a new set back. BoC remains "steadfast in our commitment to support Canadian households and businesses through the...

FOMC Policy Meeting: Policymakers May Keep Their Cards Close to Their Chest

The Fed’s policymaking arm will conclude its two-day policy review on Wednesday, with the announcement and the press conference expected to hit the headlines at 18:00 GMT and 18:30 GMT respectively. There are rumours that bond tapering talks may wrap up, but board members will probably keep the cards...

Dollar’s Near Term Bearishness Persists, Other Currencies Mixed

Dollar ended as the worst performing one last week as near term bearishness persisted. Q1's rebound should have completed and the main question is whether it's ready for new lows. That is, indeed, in favor unless overall risk-off sentiments were choked off by some unexpected events. The forex markets were...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Raising the Bar Even Further

U.S. Review: Raising the Bar Even Further This week's lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week's blowout retail sales report. We have revised our forecast for Q1 growth up to a 5.5% pace from 4.8% previously, and growth for the year...

Week Ahead: Central Banks, Coronavirus, Joe Biden and Big Tech Earnings

Heading into the end of April, central banks and earnings will give direction to the markets.  The ECB held its ground last week while the BOC chose to taper bond purchases from C$4 billion per week to C$3 billion per week. Are the FOMC and the BOJ in the...

CAD Rallies After BoC’s Hawkish Tilt

The Loonie tended to rally against the USD yesterday, as despite BoC remaining on hold as expected, the bank decided to adopt a hawkish tilted tone, expressing considerable confidence and tapered its bond purchasing program. On the other hand, the FX market was rather quiet, with the USD retreating...

Will The ECB Disturb The Waters?

ECB unlikely to rock euro – resilient economy vs higher yields Loonie flies after BoC tapers QE program, signals earlier rate hikes Wall Street bounces back, earnings season ramps up Lagarde's tone to drive the euro The spotlight will fall on the European Central Bank meeting today. Not much has...

ECB Eyed As India’s Unwanted Covid-19 Record Hurts Crude Oil

India epicentre of Covid - bad news for crude and INR ECB's Lagarde likely to remain dovish Fed to follow footsteps of BOC? The US markets rallied sharply yesterday to erase losses suffered on Tuesday, lifting foreign currencies and metals as the dollar sold off amid the risk-on trade....

Noise Cancelling Headsets

The tail chasing noise is already deafening this week. Having spent the first part of the week in doom and gloom mode as the market ran short of bullish excuses to buy everything, equity markets staged a sharp rebound overnight. The cyclical Russell 2000 seeing most of the action,...

USD/CAD Forms Bearish Flag Pattern After Hawkish BoC Decision

The Canadian dollar spiked against the US dollar after the Bank of Canada (BOC) decision. As expected, the bank left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. It also decided to slash its weekly quantitative easing purchases from C$4 billion to C$3 billion. This was in line with what some analysts...

Euro Mixed Ahead of ECB, Dollar Sellers Await Stock Rally

Canadian Dollar surges broadly overnight after BoC's hawkish tapering. Yet, it's currently still one of the weakest for the week together with Dollar. The post-meeting buying was not enough to turn the Loonie into black against others yet. As for today, markets are rather quiet so far. US stocks...

BOC Tapers QE Program and Delivers Upbeat Economic Outlook

As we have expected, the BOC delivered a hawkish tapering of QE purchases in April. the weekly asset purchases will reduce to CAD3B/week, from CAD4B/week previously. Meanwhile, it also upgraded the economic assessments for both the country and the world. Policymakers now expect the spare capacity to be fully...

Asian Open: Hawkish BOC Propels CAD, Wall Street Reverses Course

The Canadian dollar was the strongest major overnight with a more hawkish-than-expected meeting. Asian Futures: Australia's ASX 200 futures are up 37 points (0.53%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,034.50 Japan's Nikkei 225 futures are up 330 points (1.16%), the cash market is currently estimated to...

The Great Monetary Turn Begins

The pandemic led to the most-aggressive deployment of monetary policy in history but its success means it's already time for withdrawal, something that will begin with the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The loonie lagged Tuesday ahead of the decision while the yen led the way as risk aversion...

The Bank of Canada Tapers QE Program, Sees Economic Slack Being Absorbed in the Second Half of 2022 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its key policy interest rate at 0.25% but recalibrated its quantitative easing (QE) program by reducing the pace of asset purchases from at least $4 billion per week to $3 billion per week. On when it will raise the overnight rate, the...

BoC Slows Bond Buying as Economic Outlook Improves

Growth forecasts upgraded substantially Rate hike guidance brought forward to H2/22 QE tapered from $4B to $3B per week The Bank of Canada made some substantial upward revisions to its growths forecast alongside today’s policy announcement. Canadian GDP is now seen increasing 6.5% in 2021—a touch stronger than our...

BoC press conference live stream

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn2d9Sj8coY

CAD surges after BoC, a look at EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY

Canadian Dollar jumps broadly after BoC statement. The tapering was well expected. But BoC now expects economic slack to be absorbed in H2 2022, suggesting that the timing of rate hike could happen much earlier than prior expected. CAD/JPY appears to have drawn strong support from 55 day EMA and...

BoC tapers, expects economic slack to be absorbed in H2 of 2022

BoC left overnight rate target unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. Bank rate and deposit rate are held at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively. Weekly net purchases of Canadian Government bonds is reduced from CAD 4B to CAD 3B, as widely expected too. It noted that "this adjustment to the...

(BOC) Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, adjusts quantitative easing program

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank continues to provide extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate,...