Week Ahead: Geopolitical Tensions Resurface, ECB, BOC, and NFLX Report
The next hint of market direction may come from somewhere unexpected
Last week the headlines were about continued economic strength on re-openings in richer countries and increasing coronavirus cases in poorer countries. Geo-political tensions also resurfaced. Russia and the US go tit-for-tat over a buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine...
Week Ahead: Bank of Canada to Reduce Purchases; Global Economic Recovery to Pickup
The global economic recovery is gaining momentum as the world’s two largest economies continue to deliver robust economic readings. China’s economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter, a record rate that sets the example of what we can expect as the rest of the world recovers from COVID-19. The...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: More Evidence of Economic Recovery
U.S. Review
More Evidence of Economic Recovery
Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery is gaining momentum. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived, helped by an influx of stimulus in March, and industrial production rebounded from its partly weather-induced February decline. But supply chain constraints...
Weekly Focus – ECB Meeting Set to be an Appetizer for June
Markets had a stellar week with equity indices banging out record highs on both sides of the Atlantic. Hence the divergence in macroeconomic prospects was not reflective in their respective flagship equity indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke all-time highs with better than expected retail sales and jobless...
US Open: Futures Point to Gains as Stocks Trade at Record Levels
US stocks look to fresh all time highs amid growing optimism surrounding the economic recovery.
US futures
Dow futures +0.2% at 34100
S&P futures +0.5% at 4177
Nasdaq futures +0.85% at 14053
In Europe
FTSE +0.4% at 7023
Dax +0.18% at 15422
Euro Stoxx +0.3% at 4021
US stocks charge higher
After the...
Dollar Edges Lower in Quiet Trading, Gold Extends Rally
Dollar edges lower today but there is no follow through selling so far, in quiet markets. Still, the greenback is set to end the week as the worst performer, followed by Canadian and Swiss Franc. Sterling dipped notably earlier today but quickly recovered. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are...
Yields Plunge, Defy Logic, After Blowout Data, But Dollar Steadies
US economy firing on all cylinders as data keeps getting better
But Treasury yields in surprise fall; dollar off lows as gold jumps to 7-week high
Wall Street hits another record on upbeat earnings
US recovery gathers steam but Treasuries in puzzling move
The US economic outlook continued to brighten...
US-China Show How Its Done
Risk appetite reliant on sustained global economic reopening.
US stock indexes still poised for more gains over coming days.
$1800 gold could re-energise bullion bulls.
Brent needs robust demand recovery to retake $70 handle.
US benchmark stock indices posted new record highs on Thursday as markets cheered signs that...
European Open: China GDP Accelerates To Highest On Record
China's growth more than delivered in Q1 with a rise of 18.3% YoY. Still, it was slightly below expectations but, with number as punchy as these, it will do.
Asian Indices:
Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 1.5 points (0.02%) and currently trades at 7,060.10
Japan's Nikkei 225 index has...
Strong Economic Data Boosts Appetite, But Coinbase Struggles
The Chinese GDP grew at a record pace in the first quarter, +18.3% from 6.5% printed a quarter earlier. The Chinese growth figure could be seen as a rebound ball after the pandemic-hit economy recovers quickly toward normal activity levels. And there is nothing more promising than seeing China...
Yields Decline Despite Strong US Economic Data
Market movers today
Today is a rather slow day on the data front. We get final March HICP figures from the euro area, which will give us some more clues on what lies behind the divergence in goods and service price inflation.
We will also keep an eye on...
Falling Yields Boosts Stocks and Sentiments, Dollar in Consolidations
Sharp decline in US treasury yields overnight boosted DOW and S&P 500 to new record highs. Positive sentiments also somewhat carried on in Asian session today, as supported by solid data from China. The forex markets are quiets, however. Dollar is recovering some of this week's losses, but remains...
China GDP grew record 18.3% yoy in Q1, March data strong
China's GDP grew a record 18.3% yoy in Q1, but missed expectation of 18.8% yoy slightly. The data was distorted by the low base as the economy was choked by the outbreak of coronavirus in Wuhan last year, which quickly spread to the world, and it's still spreading. Nevertheless,...
China React: Record GDP At 18.3%, Retail Sales Impresses, IP Disappoints, Gold Softens
A wrath of Chinese economic data mostly came in below expectations and that along with heavy global bond yields was enough to drag sentiment down. China's CSI 300 index extended its slide following the mixed economic data. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slid slightly but are still near record...
China Set to Post Record Q1 GDP Growth, But Bounce May be Short-Lived
China was the only major economy in 2020 that managed to grow for the full year, proving that it’s possible to leave the pandemic wreckage behind. The pace of the recovery is expected to have accelerated in the first quarter of 2021 and the country is on track for...
Markets Expect US Retail Sales To Have Skyrocketed In March
Markets
Powell's speech yesterday didn't contain much new information, repeating that the is at an inflection point but withrisks of a coronavirus flareup. The Fed chair doesn't expect rate hikes before 2022 and in any case not until after the central bank began tapering the bond-buying program. His views were...
Dollar and Stocks Lower on J&J Vaccine Pause, Euro Rises
Dollar trades mildly lower entering into US session, after US FDA and CDC recommend pause of J&J COVID-19 vaccines on blood clot issue. DOW futures also turn south and point to slightly lower open. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also warned that the fall in infections was due...
Europe Trades Broadly Higher, FTSE Lags on GDP
UK GDP misses forecast
European stocks are heading broadly higher in muted trade ahead of key US inflation data. The FTSE is underperforming its peers following weaker than forecast growth numbers, whilst the Dax is shrugging off disappointing sentiment numbers.
The UK economy expanded 0.4% in February, a firm rebound from...
Asian Equities Mostly Higher
Asia markets higher on China Trade Balance
Having suffered yesterday, Asian equities are mainly green today, with yesterday’s unloved markets in favour today. That suggests that choppy range trading and tail-chasing continue to rule the roost as equity markets, ex the FOMO-gnomes of Wall Street, search for a directional answer...
Markets Shift To Neutral
Financial markets look to be shifting into neutral gear ahead of heavyweight data starting with China’s Trade Balance, US CPI this evening, and the start of earnings season in the US, led by big banking. Wall Street went nowhere overnight, the US 10-year note auction passing without incident, leaving...
European Open: China’s Imports Rise, CPI Up Next
Whilst China's exports missed expectations, imports rose an impressive 38.1% YoY to show demand from the world's second largest economy is also on the rise.
Asian Indices:
Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -6 points (-0.09%) to close at 6,968.00
Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 248.91 points (0.48%)...
US Inflation Takes Centre Stage
Market movers today
Today much focus will be on the March US inflation print and the market reaction to it. It is expected to rise to 2.5% from 1.7% (see below).
In the UK the February GDP figures will be released, which will probably show positive growth but activity...
Yen Softens in Quiet, Directionless Markets, Dollar Regains Ground
The forex markets are generally quite and directionless for the time being. After very brief selloff yesterday, Dollar is regaining some ground in Asian session today. Sterling is mildly firmer too, but there is no follow through buying. Yen is currently the weaker one together with Swiss Franc and...
China exports rose 30.6% yoy in Mar, imports rose 38.1%
In March, in USD term, China's export grew 30.6% yoy to USD 241.1B. Imports rose 38.1% yoy to 227.3B. Trade surplus came in at USD 13.8B, well below expectation of USD 52.0B. From January to March, exports rose 49.0% yoy to USD 710.0B. Imports rose 28.0% yoy to USD...
BOAO Forum: Key Themes to Watch from the “Asian Davos”
After a one-year hiatus for the COVID-19 pandemic, the BOAO Forum for Asia is scheduled to make its return next week, April 18-21.
For those who aren’t familiar, this regional conference is modeled after the World Economic Forum in Davos and is focused on promoting regional economic integration and bringing...
Asia Gets Ali Ba-Bashed
The USD2.8 billion antitrust fine levelled upon Alibaba by Chinese authorities this weekend has set the tone for the Asian equity market this morning, which is a sea of red. Perversely, Alibaba’s stock has rallied as the fine wasn’t as bad as it could have been (roughly 4.0% of...
Alibaba Rallies After Record Fine, Bitcoin Past $60K Before Coinbase IPO
Asian markets kicked off the week on a bearish note, but Alibaba shares rallied 8% in Hong Kong despite news that the company will pay a record antitrust fine of $2.8 billion for having abused its market dominance over merchants and its competitors. The curious positive reaction was partly...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last
U.S. Review: Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last
This week's economic data kicked off with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index's 24-year history. The strong report came with some caveats, however, as the headline was propped up by...
Week Ahead: Fed’s Inflation Calm About to Get Tested
The Fed has clearly signaled they are not worried about inflation and that should worry financial markets. The Fed has repeated that inflation will be transitory, but financial markets have never seen this record amount of stimulus get pumped into the economy. The US economy is about to run...
Week Ahead – US and China Data Could Reinforce Optimism but RBNZ to Sound Caution
As the dollar recedes on some scepticism around the aggressive bets of an early Fed tightening, US inflation and retail sales numbers due in the coming week could reignite those expectations. There could be a further boost to the global recovery outlook if Chinese GDP figures point to strong...