Week Ahead: Bank of Canada to Reduce Purchases; Global Economic Recovery to Pickup
The global economic recovery is gaining momentum as the world’s two largest economies continue to deliver robust economic readings. China’s economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter, a record rate that sets the example of what we can expect as the rest of the world recovers from COVID-19. The...
Week Ahead – BoC Set to Taper, ECB Unlikely to Rock Euro
It will be an exciting week for financial markets, with two major central bank meetings and a storm of economic data to keep traders busy. The Bank of Canada seems ready to scale down its gigantic QE program, though the European Central Bank is unlikely to disturb the waters....
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
4k: check. The EuroStoxx 50 passes the psychologic 4000 mark for the first time since January 2008! Ever since taking out the 2015 & 2020 tops which coincided more or less with 76% retracement of the 2007-2009 sell-off (3900-area), this moment had been coming. Technically, the path to the...
Europe Rallies on Impressive China, US Data
European equities head higher
European bourses are on the rise rounding off an upbeat week. Following all-time highs on Wall Street overnight and record Chinese quarterly economic expansion, stocks across Europe appear well supported heading towards the weekend.
Signs of strong economic recoveries in the world’s two largest economies is buoying...
European Open: China GDP Accelerates To Highest On Record
China's growth more than delivered in Q1 with a rise of 18.3% YoY. Still, it was slightly below expectations but, with number as punchy as these, it will do.
Asian Indices:
Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 1.5 points (0.02%) and currently trades at 7,060.10
Japan's Nikkei 225 index has...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
The better the US eco data get, the more adverse the market reaction becomes. It fits with the view that markets turned into reflation hibernation at the start of Q2 2021. Markets finally aligned with the Fed’s message not to frontrun on policy normalization any time soon. The US...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Not much news today. The economic calendar was all but empty and high-profile Fed speeches are not due until later today. Denmark is dropping the use of the AstraZeneca completely from its vaccination programme. Other (mainly EU) countries might follow this example. The news follows yesterday’s setback in the...
Dollar and Stocks Lower on J&J Vaccine Pause, Euro Rises
Dollar trades mildly lower entering into US session, after US FDA and CDC recommend pause of J&J COVID-19 vaccines on blood clot issue. DOW futures also turn south and point to slightly lower open. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also warned that the fall in infections was due...
NIESR: UK GDP to grow 1.8% in March, 2.2% in April
NIESR said UK's GDP is likely to have contracted by -1.5% qoq in Q1, with 1.8% mom growth in March. April is forecast to see GDP growth of 2.2% mom, driven by partial re-opening of pubs and restaurants. Assuming continuation of vaccination and re-opening, first estimate of Q2 GDP...
Europe Trades Broadly Higher, FTSE Lags on GDP
UK GDP misses forecast
European stocks are heading broadly higher in muted trade ahead of key US inflation data. The FTSE is underperforming its peers following weaker than forecast growth numbers, whilst the Dax is shrugging off disappointing sentiment numbers.
The UK economy expanded 0.4% in February, a firm rebound from...
US Inflation Takes Centre Stage
Market movers today
Today much focus will be on the March US inflation print and the market reaction to it. It is expected to rise to 2.5% from 1.7% (see below).
In the UK the February GDP figures will be released, which will probably show positive growth but activity...
UK GDP grew 0.4% mom in Feb, still down -3.1% from Oct recovery peak
UK GDP grew 0.4% mom in February, below expectation of 0.6% mom. Service sector grew 0.2% mom. Production grew 1.0%, with manufacturing up 1.3% mom. Construction grew 1.6% mom.
Comparing to pre-pandemic level seen in February 2020, overall GDP was still down -7.8%. Services was down -8.8%. Production down -3.5%,...
BoE Tenreyro: Recovery heterogeneity even within advanced economies
BoE policy maker Silvana Tenreyro said in an online discussion that upcoming recoveries diverge between advanced and emerging economies. And, "heterogeneity even within advanced economies".
That's partly due to "different speeds of vaccine rollout". There are still "continued high virus prevalence in many countries, which "may lead to further lockdowns,...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Markets started the week on a cautious footing after Friday’s ‘reflationary up-tick’. With few eco data on the agenda, investors are awaiting key US inflation (tomorrow) and other activity data (including US retail sales and confidence data) scheduled for release later this week. For interest rate markets, the mid-month...
Upbeat Retail Sales Help Underpin European Bourses, Pound Rallies On Reopening Optimism
European equities are attempting to push higher amid improving Eurozone retail sales and as investors look cautiously ahead to a busy week.
Eurozone retail sales rose 3% MoM in February, rebounding after an upwardly-revised -5.2% decline in January, ahead of expectations of a 1% increase. The improvement in retail sales...
US Stockmarkets Rally On Optimism
US stockmarkets were on the rise on Friday, with Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new record highs, while Nasdaq also rose, as the market seems to shake off inflation worries adopting a more risk on approach. The USD continued to remain pinned down against a number of its...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last
U.S. Review: Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last
This week's economic data kicked off with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index's 24-year history. The strong report came with some caveats, however, as the headline was propped up by...
Week Ahead: Lockdowns and “Re-Openings”, Big Data Dump, and Earnings Season Begins!
The talk last week was all about the expectation of an upcoming economic boom into the spring and over the summer months. Although there are current lockdowns spread throughout Europe and Canada, traders are forward-looking. With vaccines rolling out non-stop and US stimulus checks, “re-openings” are occurring, or soon...
Week Ahead: Fed’s Inflation Calm About to Get Tested
The Fed has clearly signaled they are not worried about inflation and that should worry financial markets. The Fed has repeated that inflation will be transitory, but financial markets have never seen this record amount of stimulus get pumped into the economy. The US economy is about to run...
Week Ahead – US and China Data Could Reinforce Optimism but RBNZ to Sound Caution
As the dollar recedes on some scepticism around the aggressive bets of an early Fed tightening, US inflation and retail sales numbers due in the coming week could reignite those expectations. There could be a further boost to the global recovery outlook if Chinese GDP figures point to strong...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Core bond yields roared back after yesterday’s setback. The yield reversal already started during Asian dealings after Chinese inflation, both in CPI and PPI readings, bounced stronger than expected in March. It reminded investors of lurking inflationary pressures as a result of the fiscal and monetary efforts and ongoing...
European Open: China PPI Delivers The Goods, FTSE On A High
Yet more positive data arrived from China with factory gate prices soaring to a near-3-year high. And the FTSE broke above its YTD higher yesterday, but can it crack 7k?
Asian Indices:
Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -12.8 points (-0.18%) to close at 6,986.00
Japan's Nikkei 225 index has...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
The easing of tensions on bond markets remains a trading feature this week. We can’t really call It a comeback of core bonds, but they nevertheless are recouping some ground with positive eco and vaccination news by and large discounted. US Treasuries get some additional reprieve by the (one...
USD/JPY Extends Correction Lower, Dragging Down Other Yen Crosses
USD/JPY's near term correction accelerates lower today and the development drags down other Yen crosses too. There is no apparent reason for the rush into Yen. Stocks, yields, metals, and oil are all steady for now. We'll monitor if the Yen's rally is a prelude to some other developments...
Asian Equities Are Mixed
Asian markets directionless after FOMC minutes
Asian equities are mixed today after a non-descript session on Wall Street that provided no concrete direction for local markets. The S&P 500 rose just 0.15%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones closed almost unchanged. US index futures have risen this morning, but that...
UK PMI construction rose to 61.7 in Mar, highest since 2014
UK PMI Construction rose to 61.7 in March, up sharply from 53.3, well above expectation of 55.0. That's the strongest reading since September 2014. Markit also said there was robust growth in all major categories of construction activity. Rise in commercial work was fastest for six-and-a-half years. Job creation...
GBP Fall Below 1.38, Fed Minutes Loom
The British pound has fallen for a second straight day. Currently, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3717, down 0.28% on the day. The pair is down about 1 percent since Monday and has dropped into 1.37-territory.
The pound is under pressure, and even a strong Services PMI was not enough to...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets
Our eyes in the first place turned to FX markets and the euro in particular today. The common currency staged quite an impressive comeback yesterday, both against the dollar and the pound. Given the empty economic calendar, conditions were ideal to check whether overall euro sentiment did in fact...
Euro and Franc March on, Sterling Extends Slide
The rallies of Euro and Swiss Franc continue today, with much help by buying in crosses, in particular against Sterling and Aussie. The latter two are currently the worst performing ones, with Sterling as the weakest for the week too. Dollar is actually performing not too badly, down just...
Mixed Markets Today
FTSE outperforms on IMF, vaccine news, FOMC minutes in focus
European bourses are trading in a mixed fashion, following on from a record reaching session on Tuesday. The prospect of a faster global economic recovery and news that the European Covid vaccine programme is expected to ramp up rapidly over...