Mon, Nov 30, 2020 @ 20:39 GMT
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Loonie and Sterling Firmer in Dull Month-End Trading

Overall, the markets are relative quite today, in month end trading. Stocks are struggling in tight range, indifferent to news of Modern's plan to see US and EU clearance for their vaccine. In the currency markets, Sterling is currently the strongest one, awaiting news on Brexit trade talks. Canadian...

Gold Selloff Resumes, Markets Shrug Solid Data from Japan, China and New Zealand

Asian markets are generally mixed despite some solid data from Japan, China and New Zealand. Yen is lifted mildly by the relatively optimistic economic outlook. Sterling is also slightly firmer after UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab indicated Brexit negotiations are "down to really two basic issues" only. Dollar, Canadian...

New Zealand ANZ business confidence jumped to -6.9 in Nov, surge in manufacturing

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence jumped to -6.9 in November, well above preliminary reading of -15.6 and October's final of -15.7. Manufacturing confidence surged 14.5 pts and turned positive to 6.7. Retail confidence and services confidence also rose 17.9 pts and 10.2 pts to -3.8 and -6.6 respectively. Agriculture...

Cliff Notes: A Holiday Season Unlike Any Other

Key insights from the week that was. This week saw the release of Australian partial data related to next week’s Q3 GDP report. Meanwhile, in the US and Europe, the focus remained on COVID-19’s spread and how it can be suppressed. The construction work done survey was the first of two...

Dollar and Yen Stay Weak in Quiet Pre-Holiday Trading

Markets are generally rather quiet in Asian session today, with Thanksgiving holiday in the US in sight. Risk markets are taking a breather after the earlier rally, so do the selloffs in Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc. Nevertheless the trio remain the weakest ones for the week. On the...

New Zealand trade deficit at NZD 501m as imports and exports plunged

New Zealand goods exports dropped -4.4% yoy to NZD 4.8B in October. Exports to China, Australian Japan declined, and rose to US and EU. Imports dropped -13.0% yoy to NZD 503B. Imports from all major partners declined, including China, EU, Australia, USA and Japan. Monthly trade deficit came in...

NZ Dollar Knocking on 0.70 Doorstep

The New Zealand dollar has recorded slight gains in Wednesday trade. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6991, up 0.24% on the day. On the fundamental front, New Zealand’s trade deficit is expected to drop to NZ$500 million, down from NZ$1.01 billion beforehand. Finance Minister request to RBNZ boosts NZD Investors and...

Dollar Falling Towards Key Near Term Support Levels after Mixed Data

Dollar's sell-off slowed mildly as stocks turned into consolidation ahead of Thanksgiving holiday in the US. But for now, the greenback remains the second worst performing for the week, just next to Yen, followed by Swiss Franc. Commodity currencies are strongest together with Sterling. Mixed economic data from US...

Full Risk-On Market With Upside Breakout in DOW and Oil

Markets are in full risk-on mode for now, with DOW closing above 30k handle for the first time overnight. Asian stocks are also generally higher, with strong rally in Nikkei and HSI. WTI oil prices powered through a key near term resistance level while Gold is set to break...

RBNZ Orr: Financial system not been tested as severely as it could have been

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the New Zealand economy has been "relatively resilient" to the economic shock from the pandemic so far. The financial system "has not been tested as severely as it could have been". However, he warned, "businesses domestically and internationally face ongoing challenges as fiscal support...

New Zealand Asks for Help, NZD Likes It: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, EUR/NZD

Early in today’s Asian session, New Zealand’s Finance Minister Grant Robertson wrote to RBNZ Governor Orr and asked him to factor in house price stability when considering monetary policy.  As a result of lower interest rates, housing prices in New Zealand have skyrocketed and the government is receiving some...

Euro Resilient Despite Deterioration Business Expectations, Dollar Mixed

Commodity currencies remain the strongest one for today with help from risk-on markets. Euro is also firm, shrugging off deterioration in business expectations as indicated by Ifo's data. Though, selling is focusing on Swiss Franc and Sterling for now. Dollar dropped notably earlier today but there is no clear...

NZD Jumps As Negative Rates Unlikely

The New Zealand dollar has soared in Tuesday trade. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6984, up 0.89% on the day. In the Asian session, NZD/USD crossed above the psychologically significant 0.7000 level, for the first time since June 2018. Finance Minister request to RBNZ boosts NZD A letter from New Zealand’s...

Dollar Comeback Falters, Gold Gets Burned

US PMIs show economy firing up, dollar bounces but falls back Stocks power higher, yet the Fed remains a wild card Kiwi cheers potential changes to RBNZ mandate Gold burned by stronger greenback Strong PMIs send ripples across markets A perfect storm of encouraging news has engulfed global markets early...

Currency Markets Look For Direction

Dollar whipsaws against euro, sterling Currency markets were whipsawed last night, with the dollar index trading in a near 80-point range before closing almost unchanged. The dollar was boosted by impressive PMI data, but reversed course as Biden announced key cabinet appointments and then as Trump allowed the GSA to...

The Significant Intraday Dollar Retracement From The Sharp Rise Yesterday Suggests That The USD Remains Weak

Markets Poor European November (services) PMIs due to containment measures were quickly judged irrelevant. They confirmed a double dip recession in the current quarter but market's focus is on a rosier 2021. AstraZeneca added to those hopes by being next in line to have developed a well-working vaccine. EMU equities...

NZD Surges on RBNZ Expectations, Dollar Rebound Short-Lived

Commodity currencies surge broadly today on the back of strong risk appetite, especially in Japan. New Zealand Dollar is additionally boosted after the government asked RBNZ to considering surging house prices in monetary policy moves. Dollar tried to rebound overnight, with the help from downside breakout in Gold. The...

NZ Robertson urged RBNZ to contribute to a stable housing market

New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson urged RBNZ to include house price stability as part of its broad monetary remit. The triggered speculations that the central bank would refrain from launching another round of massive stimulus, including negative interest rates. In a letter to RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, Robertson said...

Surging NZ Dollar Hits 2020 High

The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Monday. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6964, up 0.49% on the day. NZ dollar closes in on 0.70 line The New Zealand dollar has enjoyed an outstanding month of November, posting gains of 5.3% during that time. The pair has padded further...

Sterling Accelerates Higher on Vaccine News, Dollar Resumes Selloff

Dollar's selloff resumes today as stocks rallies on more positive news on coronavirus treatment. British drugmaker AstraZeneca said it's vaccine could be around 90% effective, and as many as 200 millions doses could be ready by year end. The news also lifts Sterling to be the best performer so far...

New Zealand Dollar Rises After Strong Q3 Retail Sales

Cryptocurrencies rallied during the weekend as interest in alternative assets continued to rise. The price of Bitcoin rose to a high of $18,950 while Ethereum and Ripple rose to $580 and $0.45 respectively. This strong performance makes these digital currencies the best performing asset class this year. Year-to-date, Bitcoin...

Sterling Rises on Trade Deal News, Dollar Soft

Sterling opens the week on firm footing as lifted by UK's trade deal with Canada. There's also report on increasing expectation of a deal with EU to be sealed this week. New Zealand Dollar is also firm after strong Q3 retail sales rebound. On the other hand, Dollar, Yen...

New Zealand retail sales rose 28% qoq in Q3

New Zealand retail sales rose 28.0% qoq in Q3 while ex-auto sales rose 24.1% qoq. Comparing to Q3 2019, total volume of retail sales rose 8.3% yoy. However, for the 12-month period from October 2019 to September 202, total retail sales value was still down -0.2%. "A strong September quarter...

Week Ahead: US Thanksgiving and Another Brexit Deadline

Traditionally,  Thanksgiving week in the US tends to be more on the quiet side.  With the holiday on Thursday and a half day on Friday, many people take some or all of the week off.  However, as we have seen so far in 2020, this year is different.  While...

Week Ahead – Let the Battles Commence

Focus back on fiscal response It appears we’re moving seemlessly from one major risk to another at the moment in the markets. The election is still technically live, Covid is spreading like wild fire and battles are commencing in Washington and Brussels as households and businesses line up for support...

COVID-19 Update: More Positive Vaccine News from Pfizer and Moderna

Overall – current thinking While the situation in Europe is still serious, we see more rays of light. Many countries now see a turnaround in new infections and this week France joined the club with a big decline in new cases. In the Nordics, Finland has also achieved stabilisation, while...

Kiwi, King Of Currencies: NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/NZD

Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged, left their bond buying program unchanged, and introduced a new loan facility…all as expected. In addition, Central Bank Governor Orr signaled they were not considering negative interest rates. That news, combined with only a small cluster of...

Vaccine Waves Pass By Currency Markets

Currency markets shrug after Moderna announcement The Moderna vaccine announcement had a negligible effect on currency markets overnight. Asian and G-10 currencies were almost unchanged for the session, with only the pro-cyclical Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars outperforming. The US yield curve steepened after the Moderna announcement, and that...

Week Ahead – Focus Stays on COVID

Virus rages on, a wrath of Fed speak, US retail sales slower pace Next week is filled with lots of Fed speak, an expected sixth consecutive increase with US retail sales, and possible COVID-1 vaccine results from Moderna.  Financial markets remain fixated on the coronavirus, with much attention falling on...

Yen Extending Recovery as Treasury Yields Dip

Yen appears to be trying to reverse the losses posted earlier this week, as helped by pull back in treasury yields. US 10-year yield is trading at around 0.88 a the time of writing, well below this week's high at 0.975. German 10-year yield is also back pressing -0.55...