Mon, Mar 01, 2021 @ 13:22 GMT
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Can the RBA Shoot the Aussie Down?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will conclude its March policy meeting at 01:30 GMT Tuesday. The domestic economy is doing well and commodity prices have soared, but the RBA won't be happy about the recent surge in bond yields and the exchange rate. Markets have even started pricing...

Currency Pair of the Week: AUD/USD

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets this week and is expected to leave rates unchanged at all-time lows of 0.10% and reiterate the monetary policy will remain accommodative until CPI is sustainable at their targeted level of 2%-3%.  At their February meeting, the RBA said that they expected that...

Pro-Cyclical Currencies Rise In Asia

Pro-cyclical currencies, Asian currencies climb Rebounding commodity prices and vaccine optimism have lifted pro-cyclical and Asian currencies this morning. The dollar index rose 0.83% to 90.83 on Friday, but a quiet day on the majors has seen it edge lower to 90.80 in Asia. Far more activity is being seen on...

AUDUSD Leaps Back Above 200-MA But Bearish Risks Persist

AUDUSD produced a false break of the 0.7988 high, identified in February 2018, touching a 3-year peak of 0.8006 before plummeting below the simple moving averages (SMAs) and pivoting at 0.7691. The SMAs are still supporting the pair’s bullish demeanour in spite of the diminished upward slopes of the...

Stocks Edge Up, Dollar Eases As Bond Markets Stabilize

Yields fall back as selloff in government bonds cools, but is the panic over? Stocks get off to firm start as vaccine and stimulus hopes still at play Risky currencies pare losses as dollar recedes from highs, gold bounces off lows Calm returns to bond markets, but maybe not...

EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Bounces Off Support

The EUR/AUD currency pair bounced off the lower boundary of a descending channel pattern at 1.5250 on February 25, as a result, the common European currency has surged by 2.83% against the Australian Dollar since last week's trading sessions. Currently, the exchange rate is trading near the upper line of...

AUD/USD Decline Could Continue

Downside risks dominated the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar on Friday. As a result, the AUD/USD currency pair declined by 155 pips or 1.97% during Friday's trading session. Given that a breakout has occurred through the lower boundary of an ascending channel pattern, bearish traders are likely to pressure...

US Dollar Bounces Back As US Treasury Yields Retreat

The Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar after relatively weak manufacturing PMI data from China and Australia. Yesterday, a report by the National Statistics Bureau revealed that the manufacturing PMI fell from 51.3 to 50.6 in January while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51.4. Caixin also reported...

Markets Stabilize in Tight Range, Employment and Prices Data in Focus

Commodity currencies and Sterling recover broadly as sentiments in Asian markets stabilized, after mixed economic data. In particular, Nikkei is trading up over 2% at the time of writing, with help from strong PMI manufacturing. On the other hand, Yen turn softer together with Swiss Franc, Dollar and Euro....

RBA Preview – Assessing Impacts of Rising Yields on Economy after Unexpected Increase in Bond Buying

At tomorrow’s meeting, the RBA should leave all monetary measures unchanged. The cash rate, 3-year yield target and the rate on the TFF program will stay unchanged at 0.1%. The QE program will likely remain intact as the central bank only doubled the size to AU$200B last month. While...

Market Morning Briefing: Dollar Index Has Risen

STOCKS Asian indices are getting a breather on early trades today after having sold-off strongly towards the end of last week. Nikkei has bounced from 29000 and Shanghai is holding above 3500 and is attempting to bounce. The Dow Futures (31156, +242, +0.78%) is also trading higher. This can provide...

A Wild Week of Metals, Yields, Stocks and Dollar

Just after DOW hit new record high in the middle of last week, the rally was choked by skyrocketing treasury yields. Dollar surprisingly ended as the strongest one for the week, followed by Euro and then Sterling. Australian Dollar suffered most as it reversed some of the month's gains....

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risky Currencies Pulled Back on Profit-Taking

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 23, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -436 contracts to 13 851. Speculative long positions added +1 750 contracts while shorts were up 1 314 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...

Week Ahead – NFP to Guide Yields, RBA Could be a Yawn, Pound Turns to UK Budget for Boost

As a new month starts, investors will have their eyes locked on the latest nonfarm payrolls numbers out of the United States amid an accelerating selloff in bond markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting will be the only central bank gathering of the week but is unlikely...

RBA Board to Hold the Line Next Week

The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on March 2. While we have seen extraordinary developments in bond markets over the last week, I do not think they will impact the Bank's key messages. We expect there will be no change in the policy settings and that the conclusion from the...

USD Gains As Yields Rise

The USD tended to gain against a number of its counterparts yesterday, while US stockmarkets displayed sharp drops as USD enjoyed safe haven inflows and USD buyers were also encouraged by the rise of the US yields. Its characteristic of the bond sell off that the US 10-year treasury...

AUDUSD Bearish Under 0.7850

The Australian dollar is under heavy downside pressure against the US dollar currency after suffering a major reversal from the 0.8000 resistance level. A bearish head and shoulders pattern is now in play, following the move under the 0.7850 support area. AUDUSD traders should be aware that bearish MACD...

AUD/USD Breakout Could Occur

The Australian Dollar has declined by 195 pips or 2.44% against the US Dollar since yesterday's trading session. The currency pair tested the lower boundary of an ascending channel pattern during the Asian session on Friday. Everything being equal, the exchange rate could continue to edge lower during the following...

Elliott Wave View: AUD/JPY Looking For 3 Waves Pullback

Short term Elliott Wave View in AUDJPY suggests cycle from January 28 low has ended with wave 1 at 84.95. The rally from January 28 low unfolded as a 5 waves impulse where wave ((i)) ended at 80.647 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 79.52. Index resumed higher...

Yields Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Yen Rebound

US stocks suffered steep selling overnight on sharp rally in treasury yields, and the selloff carried forward to Asian markets. Yen and Dollar ride on the turn in risk sentiments and rebounded, together with Dollar. Australian and New Zealand are in deep pull back, together with Sterling. Euro and...

Market Morning Briefing: Dollar-Yen Has Dipped Slightly From 106.40/43 Levels

STOCKS Equities seem to be coming under pressure. The resistance at 32000 on the Dow is holding well and a fall below 32000 can give an early sign of a reversal. DAX is struggling to breach 14000 decisively and looks vulnerable to break 13800 and fall to 13400-13200 from here...

Australian Dollar Flirting with 80

The Australian dollar has posted slight gains on Thursday. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7976, up 0.011% on the day. Australian dollar crosses into 80 territory The Australian dollar has been on a tear, racking up gains of 4.3% in the month of February. This culminated in a breach of the symbolic...

AUDUSD’s Ascent Conveys No Near-Term Signs Of Waning

AUDUSD has climbed to a 3-year high tracing the upper Bollinger band and is currently tackling the 0.7988 high, stretching back to February 2018. Furthermore, the advancing simple moving averages (SMAs) are defending the prevailing bullish bias. The short-term oscillators are transmitting no signals of fading in the bullish momentum....

AUD/USD Pressured By 50- Hour SMA

The Australian Dollar surged by 76 pips or 0.97% against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The 50– hour simple moving average provided support for the currency pair during yesterday's trading session. All things being equal, the exchange rate could continue to trend bullish during the following trading session. The potential...

AUDUSD 0.8050 Next Target

The Australian dollar is trading at multi-year highs against the US dollar currency as the rally in the commodity space continues to boost antipodean currencies. A bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern is currently in play and is projecting an upcoming move towards the 0.8050 level. Caution is advised...

GBP/AUD finished rebound, AUD/CAD resuming up trend

Aussie appears to be taking back the leading role in risk-on rallies now. After some hesitation, GBP/AUD finally breaks through 1.7787 support decisively, indicating completion of corrective rebound from 1.7412 at 1.0821. The cross is possibly now resuming the down trend from 2.0840. Further fall should be seen back...

Team Risk-On Extends Leads as DOW Hits New Records

As DOW hit another record with strong rise overnight, team risk-on is extending the lead over team risk-off in the currency markets. New Zealand Dollar is having a mild upper hand over Australian, Canadian and Sterling for now. But the Loonie is trying to catch up with rising oil...

Market Morning Briefing: Aussie Has Been Rising Boosted By A Strong Copper

STOCKS Dow has surged to test 32000 as expected. 32000-32200 will be an important resistance zone to watch now to see if a reversal is happening or not. A break above 32200 will negate our view of seeing a reversal. DAX sustains above 13800 and can consolidate between 13800-14000/14200 for...

Australian Dollar Flat

The Australian dollar is drifting for a second straight day. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7907, down 0.06% on the day. On the fundamental front, we’ll get a look at Australian Private Capital Expenditure (00:30 GMT). The indicator has managed only one gain in the past 10 quarters, but the...

USD Stabilises As Risk Appetite Changes

The USD gained against safe haven CHF and JPY and tended to lose ground against commodity currencies AUD and CAD and the riskier GBP. It should be noted that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday repeated before the Senate in his testimony that rates are to remain low and that...