Dollar Selloff Intensifies, European Majors Winning
Dollar's selloff intensifies today as risk-on sentiment is slowly coming back to the markets. Yen is following as the next weakest. European majors are currently the main winners. Commodity currencies are somewhat lagging behind. In other markets, European indexes are trading slightly higher while US futures also point to...
Aussie Remains Firm With Unemployment Expected To Be Steady In April
The aussie has been trading sideways over the last three months with the employment report for April, due out on Thursday at 00:30 GMT, likely to attract some attention. The recession in Australia is over as the economic indicators have turned positive; however, the recovery still has a long...
Sterling Jumps on Reopening Optimism and Job Data, Risk Appetite Returning
Dollar and Yen are both under pressure again today, as broad based risk sentiments improved. In particular, the volatile Nikkei managed to close up more than 2%. New Zealand Dollar is leading other commodity currencies higher too. But Canadian Dollar and Sterling are the strongest ones for the week...
AUD/JPY recovers after RBA minutes, still bounded in consolidations
Minutes of RBA's May 4 meeting reiterated that rate hike was unlikely "until 2024 at the earliest". Members would "consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity" in July.
Concerning QE, the members suggested...
RBA May Board Minutes Highlight Financial Conditions and Data Flow
The May Board minutes highlighted financial conditions and the data flow as key factors in the policy decisions at the July Board meeting. However the Board still supports the view that the conditions necessary to justify a rate increase are unlikely until 2024 at the earliest.
The minutes from the...
(RBA) Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
Hybrid – 4 May 2021
Members participating
Philip Lowe (Governor and Chair), Guy Debelle (Deputy Governor), Mark Barnaba AM, Wendy Craik AM, Ian Harper AO, Carolyn Hewson AO, Steven Kennedy PSM, Carol Schwartz AO, Alison Watkins
Others participating
Luci Ellis (Assistant Governor, Economic), Christopher Kent (Assistant Governor, Financial Markets)
Anthony Dickman (Secretary), Penelope Smith...
RBA Minutes Reaffirmed Likelihood of QE Expansion in July
The RBA minutes for the May minutes reaffirmed our view that further expansion in the asset purchase program would be announced later this year. The most likely timing for the announcement would be July.
Domestically, the members noted that the economic was in the transition from recovery to expansion. The...
Baseline Forecasts in RBA SOMP Do Not Support Policy Tightening in July
The RBA has lifted its forecasts for growth; labour market; and inflation/wages. However these forecasts are based on faster than expected recovery but not a sustained boost with the progress towards targeted conditions expected to be mediocre. Under those circumstances the best policy approach is to continue with the...
Dollar Dives on Huge NFP Miss, European Majors Jump
Dollar dives sharply in early US session after huge employment data miss. Canadian Dollar is slightly weaker, also on job data disappointment. Euro and Swiss Franc are quick to jump on assaulting the greenback. But Yen is not too far behind, as stocks could be under some pressure after...
DOW Hit Record, Dollar Sold off, Focus Turns to Non-Farm Payrolls
Return of risk-appetite pushed DOW to new record overnight while Asian markets also firm up. Dollar was under some selling pressure, but it's still kept in range against except versus Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. Focus will turn to non-farm payroll report from today. A strong set of data...
RBA discussed upside and downside scenarios in SoMP
In the Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA reiterated that it's "committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target". The conditions for raising the cast rate is unlikely to be met "until 2024 at the earliest".
RBA...
US Open: Futures Point Lower, Factory Orders and Earnings to Come
US stocks point lower after solid start to May. Factory orders in focus after surprise fall in ISM manufacturing PMI. Earnings continue.
US futures
Dow futures -0.4% at 33990
S&P futures -0.5% at 4170
Nasdaq futures -0.8% at 13680
In Europe
FTSE -0.07% at 6978
Dax -1.5% at 15025
Euro Stoxx...
Dollar and Yen Extending Consolidations, Trading Mildly Higher
Dollar and Yen rebound notably today as consolidative trading continues, with help from mixed sentiments. European indices are mixed while US futures point to lower open. Major global trading yields are trading lower, with US 10-year yield below 1.6 handle. New Zealand Dollar is leading Australian Dollar lower, followed...
Dollar Choppy, Stocks Resilient Despite ISM Miss
Dollar retreats after disappointing ISM report but bounces back
Sterling outperforms as speculation for BoE tapering grows
Gold capitalizes on subdued yields, RBA takes the sidelines
Markets in wait-and-see mode after ISM survey
The US dollar is still searching for direction. The reserve currency took a hit yesterday in the...
US Dollar Tumbles On Weak ISM Data
The US dollar sharply reversed much of Friday’s month-end gains as ISM Manufacturing data disappointed. I suspect that much of the greenback’s rally on Friday was built on month-end rebalancing and not a fundamental swing in outlook. As such, it was of no surprise that the US dollar’s fortunes...
RBA Board Maintains Policy Settings; More Optimistic Economic Forecasts
The Reserve Bank Board has lifted its growth forecast in 2021 to well above Consensus while lowering its unemployment forecast by end 2021 to 5%. There has been a slight upward revision to the inflation outlook. Policy changes will now be considered at the July Board meeting.
As expected, the...
When A Plan Doesn’t Come Together
US Manufacturing PMI underperforms
Although the world loves it when a plan comes together, an opposite reaction occurs when it doesn't. Such was the case overnight when US ISM Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations quite noticeably. The headline print for April came in at 60.50, still expansionary but well below market...
European Open: RBA Hold, Gold Bulls Eye Break Of 1800
The RBA held interest rates at 0.1% and announced they will discuss whether to retail their 3-yr bond target. And gold appears poised to break above 1800 as bulls square up to this milestone level once more.
Asian Indices:
Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 37 points (0.53%) and currently...
BoE Meeting and Scottish Parliamentary Elections: Would They Give New Impetus To GBP-Trading?
Markets
Let's pick up right where we left-off yesterday: the US manufacturing ISM disappointed, falling from 64.7 in March (highest since 1983) to 60.7 in April (vs 65 expected). Details showed a reversal of the March increase in production (62.5 from 68.1) with companies reporting supply chain struggles as a...
Crude Oil And Commodities Rally As Global Recovery Gains Pace
Commodity prices rallied in overnight trading as the market reacted to the latest economic data from the United States. In a report, Markit said that the US manufacturing PMI declined to 60.7 in April. A separate report by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said that the PMI declined...
RBA Keeps Policy Intact but Signals Amendments in July
The RBA left all monetary policy measures unchanged in May and reiterated that a rate hike would "unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest". However, the central bank upgraded economic projections and signaled that some amendments would be made on yield curve control (YCC) and QE in July.
Economic...
Australian Dollar Steady after RBA, Dollar Firmer in Consolidations
The forex markets are staying in consolidative mode this week so far. Aussie is steady in tight range after RBA stood pat as widely expected, even though GDP forecast was upgraded. Dollar is recovering again as the retreat overnight didn't last long. Canadian Dollar and Yen also trade with...
RBA stands pat, upgrades GDP forecasts further
RBA maintained monetary policy settings as widely expected. Cash rate and 3-year yield target are held at 0.10%. Parameters of the Term Funding Facility and bond purchases are held unchanged too. It also maintained that the condition for raising the cash rate is unlikely to be reached until 2024...
(RBA) Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.
The...
Aussie Steadies After Slide, RBA Next
The Australian dollar is steady in the Monday session. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7722, up 0.14%.
The US dollar showed some broad strength on Friday, and AUD/USD fell 0.70% and briefly fell below the 0.77 level. The greenback was supported by inflows from international investors who snapped...
RBA Preview: Upgrading Economic Assessment while Pledging to Expand QE Purchases
While the RBA is likely to leave all monetary policy measures unchanged at this week’s meeting, the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (due May 7) would be closely watched. We expect policymakers to upgrade economic assessments moderately and pledge to monitor rising home prices.
Economic developments have generally improved since...
Yen Selloff Continues Despite Risk Aversion in Asia
The forex markets are relatively quiet in Asia, with Japan and China on holiday. Main theme is extended selloff in the Japanese Yen despite steep decline in Hong Kong and Singapore stocks. Aussie and Kiwi are the mildly firmer ones while Swiss Franc is softer. Also, a major talking...
Week Ahead: Central bank Recap/Preview, the Recovery, and Jobs
More central banks this week with the RBA and BOE up next
This weekend begins the month of May, and brings holidays on Monday in the UK, China, and Japan. With a busy week to end April, including an extremely dovish FOMC and BIG tech earnings, the focus turns primarily...
Week Ahead – RBA to Stand Pat but BoE Might Taper; Can a Bumper NFP Excite after Dovish Fed?
The central bank theme will continue over the next seven days with policy meetings by the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England. The RBA will probably maintain some caution after weak inflation figures but there is some speculation the BoE could start to taper its asset purchases...
RBA Board to Hold Policy Steady – Lower Unemployment Forecasts
The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on May 4.
That will be followed by the May Statement on Monetary Policy which will print on May 7.
This could be quite an important meeting.
In recent times the meetings which have been linked to the Statements on Monetary Policy have incorporated policy...