Wed, Apr 21, 2021 @ 01:15 GMT
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Cliff Notes: Both Stimulus and Sentiment are Key to the Global Recovery

Key insights from the week that was. Australian consumers’ confidence in the economy went from strength to strength in April, our Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey rising by a further 6.2% to an 11-year high. This is despite the April survey being undertaken just after the end of JobKeeper and amongst...

RBNZ Holds Course, NZ Dollar Surges

The New Zealand dollar is sharply higher in the Thursday session. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7113, up 0.02% on the day. RBNZ maintains rates, QE There were no surprises from New Zealand’s central bank, which held the course at its monthly policy meeting. As expected, policymakers held the Overnight Cash...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Not much news today. The economic calendar was all but empty and high-profile Fed speeches are not due until later today. Denmark is dropping the use of the AstraZeneca completely from its vaccination programme. Other (mainly EU) countries might follow this example. The news follows yesterday’s setback in the...

Swiss Franc Weakens With Dollar, Aussie and Kiwi Firm

The financial markets are generally steady today, as European indices are mixed in tight range. US futures point to slightly higher open, as S&P 500 could extend record run. Gold and oil are both still range bound. In the currency markets, Aussie and Kiwi continue to trade as the...

US Treasuries Send The Dollar Lower

As US yields retreat, dollar dips All roads lead to the US 10-year yield now, it seems, and currency markets are no exception. A firm 30-year auction and a post-inflation data fall in US yields saw the US dollar head south. The dollar index fell by 0.30% to 91.82, with...

Inflation Fears Shrugged Off

Markets ignore rise in US inflation US inflation duly rose by 0.50% MoM for March overnight, roughly an eight-year high. However, the print was only just above expectations, and with markets ignoring the collapse of the China trade surplus earlier in the day, it was no surprise that Wall Street...

European Open: RBNZ Hold Rates, Australian Consumers Are Buzzing

There were no major surprises from RBNZ today, but consumers in Australia are their most confident on the economy in 11 years. Indices mostly higher in Asia (barring Japan) It was a strong close for the Australian share market with consumer sentiment jumping to an 11-year high. Looking past a slow...

New Zealand Dollar Rises After RBNZ Commits To More Stimulus

The New Zealand dollar rose against the US dollar after the latest interest rate decision by the RBNZ. The central bank left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and continued with its quantitative easing policy. In this policy, the bank is acquiring assets worth N$100 billion in a bid...

Would The RBNZ Cut The Policy Rate Further?

Markets The US announcing a pause Johnson & Johnson vaccinations was quickly set aside. Instead, attention soon shifted to stronger-than-expected March CPI. Bond yields somewhat surprisingly quickly erased their kneejerk move higher. Strong demand for the US 30 year auction despite the recent yield pause dragged rates even further lower....

Dollar Selling Taking Off, Aussie and Kiwi Strong

Dollar remains generally pressured in Asian session, as selling appeared to have taken off overnight. J&J's vaccine saga is raising some concerns that it would take longer for US to achieve herd immunity. Or, at least, it's not brightening the outlook. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar jumps...

Kiwi Shoots Higher as RBNZ Appears Less Concerned about its Rise

As expected, the RBNZ left all monetary policy measures unchanged at the April meeting. While acknowledging the dampening effects of the government’s housing policy, policymakers need more time to assess the impacts on the real economy. Meanwhile, the members appear more comfortable with the current level of New Zealand...

RBNZ stands pat, outlook remains highly uncertain

RBNZ left stimulatory monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, with OCR at 0.25% and  Large Scale Asset Purchase and Funding for Lending program unchanged. It maintained that to meet the requirements of sustainable 2% inflation and maximum employment will "necessitate considerable time and patience". The committee is also "prepared...

(RBNZ) Monetary Stimulus Continued

Tēnā koutou katoa, The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to maintain the current stimulatory level of monetary settings in order to meet its consumer price inflation and employment objectives. The Committee will keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 0.25 percent, and the Large Scale Asset Purchase and Funding for Lending...

NZD Dips ahead of RBNZ Rate Decision

The New Zealand dollar remains range-bound and is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7028, down 0.02% on the day. New Zealand Business Confidence says inflation rising The well-respected NZIER Business Confidence survey pointed to a slight improvement in business confidence in Q1 of 2021. A net...

USD Remains Weak, While GBP Gains

The USD remained rather weak yesterday, despite the US 10 year yield rising slightly and the market’s attention turns to the CPI rates for March. Note that the US CPI rates for March are expected to accelerate and if so, could enhance expectations for further inflationary pressures in the...

Currency Pair of the Week: AUD/NZD

Australia will release their Employment data this week on Thursday.  Expectations are for an additional 35,000 jobs to be added to the economy.  In February, 88,700 jobs were added, of which just about all were full-time jobs!  The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 5.8% to 5.7%.  Last...

Dollar and Yen Higher on Mild Risk-Off Sentiment, Kiwi Up ahead of RBNZ

Dollar and Yen trade slightly higher on mild risk-off sentiment in Asia. Australian and Canadian Dollar are the weaker ones for the time being. But overall, most major pairs and crosses are stuck in range. Except that, some extra strengthen is seen in Kiwi against Aussie. Kiwi could be...

RBNZ to Leave Expansionary Policy Unchanged as Growth Momentum Eases

Economic developments have been mixed since the February RBNZ meeting. Inter-meeting data show deceleration in the growth momentum, while inflation expectations have soared. Government's measures to curb property prices would be another factors easing the growth outlook, while the Trans-Tasman travel bubble could offer help to pandemic-ridden sectors in...

Week Ahead – US and China Data Could Reinforce Optimism but RBNZ to Sound Caution

As the dollar recedes on some scepticism around the aggressive bets of an early Fed tightening, US inflation and retail sales numbers due in the coming week could reignite those expectations. There could be a further boost to the global recovery outlook if Chinese GDP figures point to strong...

RBNZ Meeting Unlikely to Rattle the Kiwi

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will wrap up its upcoming meeting at 02:00 GMT Wednesday. Economic data have lost some momentum lately and as a result, markets have priced out expectations for rate hikes. That said, the economy remains in good shape overall. As for the kiwi,...

NZ Dollar Plunges on Housing Reforms

The New Zealand dollar has plummeted in Tuesday trade. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7024, down 1.94% on the day. Earlier in the day pair fell as low as 0.7020, its lowest level this year. NZ dollar plunges on new housing policy It has been a bloodbath for the New Zealand...

Kiwi Awaits New Zealand’s GDP Data As Crisis Fades

Economic growth figures for Q4 out of New Zealand will hit the markets at 21:45 GMT Wednesday. Forecasts suggest that the economy has recovered all its losses from the crisis, even though the struggling tourism industry likely held back growth this quarter. As for the kiwi, the overall picture...

Range Trading Continues as US 10-Year Auctions Awaited

The markets are rather quiet so far today with slow news flow. Major currency pairs and crosses are stuck inside yesterday's range, in consolidative trading. Other markets are also mixed, with some hope for DOW to hit new records, but other indices are weak. US consumer inflation data provides...

Dollar Recovers after Brief Retreat, More Treasury Auctions Ahead

Dollar's pull back overnight was relatively short-lived as it regains some footing in Asian session today. Sentiments stabilized with US stocks closed higher yesterday, with NASDAQ staged a strong rebound. Treasury yields also retreated mildly. The auction of USD 58B in US 3-year notes was seen as well received,...

RBNZ removes some temporary liquidity facilities as financial market conditions improved significantly

RBNZ announced to remove some of the temporary liquidity facilities put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. Measures include term auction and corporate open market operation (COMO) facilities, which allowed banks to borrow money in exchange for eligible corporate and asset-backed securities. Head of Financial Markets Vanessa Rayner says, "Financial...

Swiss Franc and Yen Resumed Selloff, Markets Mixed Elsewhere

Selloff in Swiss Franc and Yen is the main focus today. But the forex markets are mixed elsewhere. Commodity currencies are mildly firmer as led by Aussie, but major pairs are just bounded in very tight range at the time of writing. Euro, Sterling and Dollar are mixed for...

Currency Trading Subdued, But Risk Aversion Building Up

Huge volatility continues in stock markets as Asian indices dive following the selloff in US overnight. But movements in exchange rates are relatively subdued, and mixed. Swiss Franc, Yen and Euro are currently the weaker ones for the week, followed by Dollar. Australian Dollar is leading other commodity currencies...

RBNZ Orr: We will not be resuming business as previous in its entirety any time soon

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said in a speech, the current pic up in economic activity is "sector and event specific", and "we will not be 'resuming business as previous' in its entirety any time soon". While the initiation of global vaccination program is positive, "there remains a significant period before...

Euro Drops on ECB Comments, Swiss Franc Weaker

Euro is under some pressure today after a heavy ECB official indicated the readiness to response to surging yields. But Swiss Franc is not too far behind. The forex markets are mixed elsewhere. Dollar is currently the stronger one, together with Aussie and Sterling. Meanwhile, Kiwi is the weaker...

Dollar Advances As Stocks Slip Again, Yields Hold Steady

Calmer bond markets lift Wall Street, but global stocks dip on China’s bubble warning Dollar approaches one-month high as ECB, RBA and RBNZ push back on rising yields Oil prices fall for third straight day on higher supply worries, gold struggles Bubble warning pressures stocks Risk appetite waned slightly on...