How to benefit when BTC price goes down?

    Intro

    It is no secret that Bitcoin is volatile, as all cryptocurrencies are! The trick is, knowing when prices will move and what to do when the inevitable movement comes. Sounds simple, right?

    There are many investors out there that have heavily backed Bitcoin and expect the price to keep rising. But what if the value of a coin was not reaching the heights you expected to? Is this something to be overly concerned about?

    Since Bitcoin’s arrival on the global stage, it has experienced many highs and lows. Massive swings which happen regularly which can last days, span a few hours or move big, without warning, in the space of a few minutes.

    This article will explore why Bitcoin moves in the way it does and we will also look at how we can benefit from a downward price movement on the original, world-famous, digital asset.

    At CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com) you can trade over 30 digital assets including the following Bitcoin pairs:

    BTC/USD, BCH/BTC, ETH/BTC, LTC/BTC, NEO/BTC, XMR/BTC, ZEC/BTC

    Volatility

    Volatility can be described as something liable to change drastically, quickly and without warning. This description is accurate when we are putting the definition next to Bitcoin.

    Traditional stock volatility is measured by the volatility index which was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1993. Also known as the VIX, what it does is represents a real-time market index showing the expected next 30 day movements with a focus on how volatile a stock might be. A useful tool for stock traders….

    Bitcoin does not have such a tool for Crypto investors to make use of. What we do know however is that Bitcoin is volatile and can move up to ten times as much as USD in a single trading day.

    So why is Bitcoin so volatile and what are the reasons behind it?

    One of the key reasons is that, although, in its 10th year, it is still relatively new technology. With new technology, new consumers need to get to grips with it and understand what the product is and how it functions. There are people out there, dare I say the older generation who can be more resistant to change when it comes to technology. This is evident when you look at statistics in supermarkets and which age groups are more willing to use self-checkout technology when purchasing their goods.

    People need time to adjust and adapt to change. Some people take longer than others, but in terms of how long currency and cold hard cash has been around, Bitcoin is still a new product and some people will need a little more encouragement to use technology as opposed to cash and banks.

    Bitcoin price is heavily affected by the news and media, especially when it comes to geopolitical events. In times of crisis within a country, new Bitcoin investors can surge within that country. This is especially true when examining the Cypriot banking crisis in 2013. The EU bailed out Cypriot banks but this came with terms and conditions. The cost of bailout was around the $20Billion mark yet the EU would only give Cyprus $13Billion. This meant that Cyprus would have to raise the further $7Billion themselves and they realized this by levying a tax on deposits.

    The tax was 6.75 percent from insured deposits of €100,000 or less, and 9.9 percent from uninsured amounts above €100,000. What this tax achieved was massive distrust in the banks from Cypriots and many Russians who live in Cyprus. The distrust in banks made trust in decentralized currency flourish. Bitcoin prices spiked thanks to this bailout.

    Many celebrities who have spoken out against Bitcoin and as influential people, this can truly have a knock-on effect on the value of a coin. Also, major incidents such as the closure of Silk Road harmed the price of Bitcoin. The FBI and Interpol shut down Silk Road in 2013 resulting in a life sentence for creator Ross Ulbricht. Many Bitcoin users lost trust in Bitcoin at this time and looked to sell as governments use rhetoric to suggest making Bitcoin follow some sort of compliance and regulation.

    Strategies to capitalize in downward movements and how to benefit

    As prices can rise, they can also crash and as investors, it is important to understand why and how we can manage this effectively. In 2018, the price of Bitcoin collapsed 61% – from an $8,300 high to $3,200 low in just six months showing just how much price can swing in a short period.

    There are a few things that can be done to capitalize on Bitcoin value taking a downward turn.

    For a start, a holder could straight up sell their Bitcoin and then buy again when the price reaches a severe low. Or low enough in the consumers’ opinion to make it worth buying before making an upturn.

    Traders can take advantage of a Bitcoin downturn by ‘going short’ or selling Bitcoin, staking money that Bitcoin will have a downward price movement – often referred to as profitable shorting.

    Users can also use margin trading or trading with leverage to further inflate profits. Leverage allows the ‘average trader’ to get involved in potentially high-profit trades without having to invest vast swathes of capital.

    In today’s modern trading world, thanks to high leveraged trading, more people than ever can speculate on markets with relatively low capital with the potential for high returns.

    It is advised that before trading with high leverage to investigate further and develop a trading strategy. Where can you do this you might ask? Many brokers in the marketplace offer a free to use ‘demo account’ for traders to perfect a strategy, get used to the available instruments and become accustomed to the MT4 trading platform.

    Start trading with CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com) and benefit from a downward movement by using a max leverage of 1:100 for your favorite Cryptocurrency pairs with over 30 on offer including BTC/USD.

    Review the performance of other Cryptocurrencies to give yourself an idea of how the market is behaving and where Crypto investors are putting their money.

    Use a range of analysis to help form an overview of what is happening in the market. Draw on various types of media including social media, follow influencers in the Bitcoin world such as the Winklevoss twins. However, be wary when sourcing your information. John McAfee recently claimed that Bitcoin HAS to reach the million-dollar mark by the end of 2020. Recently he claimed this was a PR stunt – proving it is vital to collect your information from a range of sources. Bitcoin price today is at $8,745.56 a long way to go to a million in 11 months!

    Conclusion

    We have learned that Bitcoin is undoubtedly volatile and prices can and do take downturns. But it is not all doom and gloom. If you are holding onto Bitcoin, don’t stress too much about a negative price movement, instead, harness that energy and trade short to protect your investment!

    Bill Gates once said that if he could find an easy way to short Bitcoin, he would do. This was highlighted by one of the Winklevoss twins on Twitter. Guess what, Bill? You can short Bitcoin at CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com). What’s more, they will be there for you 24/7 to assist you with all your account set up to get you started on your shorting adventure!

    Good luck!

    Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 54.3 in Dec, confidence dipped

      Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 54.3 in December, slightly lower than November’s 54.5. But that was well above 2021’s average of 52.7. Markit said output and new orders increased at slower rates. Employment level rose at fastest pace in nearly four years. Business optimism eased to four-month low.

      Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Domestic markets were buoyed by a gradual recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic however a sharp rise in cases, particularly in South Korea, hindered international demand and continued to disrupt supply chains across the sector… Delivery delays and material shortages remained a dampener on production and sales… Average lead times across the final quarter of 2021 deteriorated further… Though still optimistic, Japanese goods producers were wary of the continued impact of the pandemic and supply chain disruption, which resulted in confidence dipping to the softest since August.”

      Full release here.

      BoE’s Bailey warns of financial vulnerabilities amid global fragmentation

        BoE Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned on Wednesday that risks tied to geopolitical tensions and the fragmentation of global trade and financial markets remain high. Speaking on the evolving macroeconomic development, Bailey said the world economy faces “material uncertainty,” and warned that some geopolitical threats have already begun to crystallize, impacting financial market behavior.

        He noted a “notable change” in the usual correlations between the US Dollar and other US assets such as equities and Treasury yields. This breakdown, Bailey warned, increases the likelihood of sharp corrections in risk assets, abrupt shifts in allocation, and prolonged periods of market dislocation. Such dynamics could expose vulnerabilities in market-based finance and ripple into the UK by tightening the availability and cost of credit.

        Bailey also stressed that trade fragmentation, while geopolitical in nature, has clear economic consequences. “Fragmenting the world economy is bad for activity,” he said, citing basic trade theory. The knock-on effects, he added, would likely weigh on employment and global growth.

        Trump pledges dramatic actions after DOW dropped -2013pts

          Wall street experienced massive selloff overnight, on double whammy of global coronavirus pandemic and oil price war. DOW declined -2013.76 pts or -7.79%, S&P lost -7.60%, NASDAQ dropped -7.29%. 10-year yield hit another record low at 0.398 before closing at 0.499, down -0.207. Fed fund futures are now pricing in 100% chance of -75bps rate cut to 0.25-0.50% at March 18 meeting.

          President Donald Trump said at the White House that he plans to announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy on Tuesday. The measures will include payroll tax cut and “very substantial relief” for industries hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

          DOW’s steep fall from 29568.57 resumed earlier than we expected, by breaking 24681.01 temporary low. Further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 29568.57 to 24681.01 from 21702.34 at 22214.78 in the near term. The projection sits inside an important long term support range, with 55 month EMA at 22632.99, and 38.2% retracement of 6469.95 to 29568.57 at 20744.89. We’d expect strong support from there to end the current leg of selloff, and bring sustainable rebound.

          Australia’s NAB business confidence rises to 5, conditions rebound to 9

            Australia’s business sentiment improved sharply in June, with NAB Business Confidence rising from 2 to 5, its highest trend level in over a year. Business Conditions surged from 0 to 9 after weakening for five straight months. The rebound was broad-based, with trading conditions jumping from 5 to 15, profitability returning to positive territory from -5 at 4, and employment conditions edging up from to 3.

            On the pricing side, signals were mixed. Labour cost growth eased slightly from 1.6% to 1.5% (quarterly equivalent), while purchase costs rose from 1.2% to 1.5%. Final product price growth ticked up from 0.5% to 0.6%, although retail price growth slowed to 0.6%, hinting at easing consumer price pressures despite supply-side stickiness.

            NAB’s Gareth Spence said the data suggest momentum may be picking up into the second half of 2025. “While we know the monthly survey can be volatile, the hope is at least some of these trends will be sustained,” he noted, calling the jump in both confidence and conditions a positive surprise amid ongoing global uncertainty.

            Full Australia NAB Monthly Business Survey here.

            China CFETS lowers Dollar weighting in RMB index, increase Euro weighting

              Starting on January 1, US Dollar’s weighting in the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) RMB Index would be lowered. CFETS is overseen by the PBoC and the RMB index measures the value of Yuan against a basket of 24 major currencies, with weights based on international trade.

              After the adjustment, Dollar’s weighting will be lowed from 22.4% to 21.59%. Euro’s weighting will be increased from 16.34% to 17.40%. CFETS said the adjustment was to make the index more representative, taking into account trade data from 2018.

              BoJ minutes hint at hikes post-tariff deal, AUD/JPY extends decline

                BoJ’s June meeting minutes, released today, confirmed that several policymakers were open to resuming rate hikes once trade uncertainty subsides. While the minutes are somewhat dated — the meeting took place before the announcement of the US–Japan trade agreement — they reveal a growing consensus that the central bank may return to a normalization path sooner than previously expected. Markets are now turning to Friday’s Summary of Opinions from the more recent July meeting, which should reflect a more upbeat outlook following the tariff deal.

                Some BoJ members noted that as wages remain firm and inflation slightly exceeds expectations, the Bank would likely “shift away from the current wait-and-see approach and consider resuming rate hikes, if trade friction de-escalates” Others emphasized that while the BoJ should pause rate hikes for now due to uncertainty, it must stay “flexible and nimble,” ready to resume hikes depending on US policy and global developments.

                Yen continues to strengthen this week, underpinned by falling US Treasury yields and a pickup in BoJ tightening expectations. In contrast, the Australian Dollar is under pressure as markets increasingly price in another RBA rate cut next week. The shift follows last week’s soft Q2 CPI data, which undercut arguments for extended policy pauses and revived dovish speculation.

                Technically, a short term top should be in place at 97.41 in AUD/JPY with breach of 55 D EMA (now at 95.08). Sustained trading below the EMA will bring AUD/JPY further lower to 38.2% retracement of 86.03 to 97.41 at 93.06, as a correction to the rise from 86.03. Nevertheless, break of 95.85 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral first.

                 

                BoE to hike another 25ps, a look at bearish GBP/AUD

                  BoE is widely expected to continue with its tightening cycle, and raise Bank rate by 25bps to 1.00% today. Focus is firstly on the voting, on the whether any hawks would push for faster pace of hikes. Secondly, BoE might make a decision to actively shrink its balance sheet. Thirdly the new economic projections will also be scrutinized for the policy path and economic outlook.

                  Here are some previews:

                  GBP/AUD is a pair to watch for the near term, considering the possible return of risk-on sentiment too. The corrective recovery from 1.7171 might have completed at 1.7884, after failing to break through 55 day EMA. That is, medium term down trend might be ready to resume.

                  For the near term, deeper decline is in favor to retest 1.7171 support first. Firm break there will confirm this bearish case, and target 61.8% projection of 1.9218 to 1.7171 from 1.7884 at 1.6619. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.7884 resistance holds.

                  Swiss CPI returns to positive territory at 0.1% yoy in June

                    Swiss consumer prices surprised slightly to the upside in June, with headline CPI rising 0.2% mom and turning positive on an annual basis at 0.1% yoy, reversing May’s -0.1% yoy print. Core CPI also firmed to 0.6% yoy from 0.5% yoy, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures remain subdued but stable.

                    Domestic prices were the key driver, up 0.2% mom and 0.7% yoy. Imported goods remained weak—flat on the month and still down -1.9% yoy despite an improvement from May’s -2.4% yoy.

                    Full Swiss CPI release here.

                    NZIER survey shows NZ business confidence rising, inflation pressures easing

                      New Zealand business confidence improved modestly in Q2, with a net 22% of firms expecting better conditions ahead, up from 19% in Q1, according to NZIER’s quarterly survey.

                      Inflationary pressure appears to be cooling. 1% of firms reported price cuts in Q2, a sharp turnaround from the 8% that raised prices in Q1.

                      The report pointed to a continued “divergence between firms experiencing weak demand and firms expecting a recovery in demand”, underlining an uneven domestic outlook despite improved sentiment.

                      NZIER said the effect of interest rate cuts since last August has yet to fully feed through to real activity, despite supporting sentiment.

                       

                      NZ BNZ services rises to 47.3, but outlook remains grim

                        New Zealand’s services sector showed mild improvement in June, with BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rising to 47.3 from May’s 44.1. Despite the gain, the index remains well below its long-run average of 52.9 and firmly in contraction territory. Subcomponents showed modest upticks—new orders rose from 43.4 to 48.8, employment edged up from 47.1 to 47.4, and activity/sales climbed to 44.5. Inventories just breached the 50-mark at 50.6.

                        Still, the broader backdrop remains discouraging. 66.2% of surveyed businesses offered negative comments, citing subdued consumer confidence, elevated living costs, and policy-related uncertainty. Public sector retrenchment, inflation, and rising interest rates continue to bite, while seasonal factors like winter and lower tourist activity weigh on demand. BNZ’s Doug Steel summed it up bluntly: “The timeline for New Zealand’s long-awaited economic recovery just keeps getting pushed further and further out.”

                        Full NZ BNZ PSI release here.

                        Australia Westpac consumer sentiment edges up to 93.1, RBA hold damps household optimism

                          Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index edged up 0.6% mom to 93.1 in July, but the modest gain masked a clear sense of disappointment among households.

                          Westpac noted that sentiment was noticeably stronger before the RBA’s July meeting, with those surveyed prior to the decision reporting a reading of 95.6. That slipped to 92 among those surveyed after the RBA unexpectedly held rates steady, suggesting the decision dashed hopes for relief.

                          As a result, consumer confidence remains stuck at what Westpac called “cautiously pessimistic” levels.

                          Looking ahead, markets are eyeing the RBA’s next meeting on August 11–12. While the central bank may pause again if Q2 inflation overshoots, the more likely scenario is a confirmation that inflation stays inside the 2–3% target range. That would pave the way for a 25bps rate cut in August, with another expected in November.

                          Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

                          Bitcoin completed three wave correction, eye EMA resistance for confirmation

                            Bitcoin’s correction from 41964 extended to as low as 28989 but quickly rebounded back above 30k handle. It’s now even trading above 33k. The development argues that such correction might have completed with a three wave structure, with bullish convergence condition in hourly MACD.

                            Focus is now on 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 34334). Sustained break there will affirm this bullish view and bring stronger rise back to 40000/41964 resistance zone. However, break of 31741 minor support will extend the correction with another fall through 28989.0 before completion.

                            OECD outlined two equally probable scenarios, single- and double- coronavirus hit

                              OECD outlined two “equally probable scenarios” for the world economy in a report released today. In the “single-hit scenario”, second wave of coronavirus pandemic is avoided. Global economic activity would fall -6% in 2020, with unemployment rates jumping to 9.2%, up from 5.4% in 2019. “living standards fall less sharply than with a second wave but five years of income growth is lost across the economy by 2021”.

                              In the “double-hit scenario”, a second wave of infections hits before year-end. A renewed outbreak of infections would trigger a return to lock-downs. World economic output would plummet -7.6% this year, before climbing back 2.8% in 2021. OECD unemployment rate would nearly double to 10% with little recovery in jobs by 2021.

                              Full release here.

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                              Japan’s PMI composite unchanged at 51.5, inflation to ease over the summer

                                Japan’s Composite PMI was unchanged at 51.5 in July. Services drove growth, rising from 51.7 to 53.5, while Manufacturing slipped into contraction at 48.8, down from 50.1.

                                S&P Global noted that manufacturers saw weaker output and new orders, weighed down by tariff uncertainty and cautious customer behavior. Confidence weakened across the board, with optimism falling to the second-lowest level since August 2020. Firms responded by slowing hiring to the weakest pace in 18 months.

                                On the positive side, cost pressures eased, with input inflation at a four-year low—suggesting headline “inflation may ease further over the summer”.

                                Full Japan PMI flash release here.

                                Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.5, divergences persist

                                  Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 49.5 in June, up slightly from 49.4 in May and marking the highest level in nearly three years. The data reflects gradual stabilization across the bloc’s industrial base, with output expanding for the fourth straight month and new orders showing signs of bottoming out. However, the headline figure remains below the 50-mark, signaling the sector is still technically in contraction.

                                  Among individual economies, Ireland (53.7), Greece (53.1), Spain (51.4), and the Netherlands (51.2) led the pack with readings in expansion territory. In contrast, France (48.1), Italy (48.4), and Austria (47.0) continued to weigh on the region, posting multi-month lows. Germany, the bloc’s industrial engine, came in at 49.0—its best level in 34 months, but still shy of expansion.

                                  Hamburg Commercial Bank’s Cyrus de la Rubia noted that longer delivery times and a stabilization in order books are early signs of a pickup in demand, despite ongoing macro risks from tariffs, the Middle East, and Ukraine. He added that if Germany returns to growth—helped by fiscal support from the new coalition—France, Italy, and Austria could follow, given their strong trade ties.

                                  Full Eurozone PMI Manufacturing final release here.

                                  Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to 12.0, emerging markets and US trade disputes weigh

                                    Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence overall index dropped to 12 in September, down from 14.7, below expectation of 13.8. Current situation index dropped to 35.0, down from 37.3. Expectations index also dropped to -8.8, down from -5.8. Sentix noted that “the weakness of the emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, is weighing on economic assessments. But also homemade European problems.”

                                    Sentix also noted that two developments are “particularly noticeable in the search for the causes” for the deteriorations. One is “weakness in the international arena”, in particular in Asia and Latin America. And, “due to the solid US dollar and political crises, the emerging markets are in the crossfire.”

                                    For Europe itself, there are problems “especially at the political level”. Also, “external, international catalyst, which is also intensified by the trade dispute between the USA and almost the rest of the world, is now having a noticeable negative impact.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone CPI finalized at 9.2% yoy in Dec, core CPI at 5.2% yoy

                                      Eurozone CPI was finalized at 9.2% yoy in December, down from November’s 10.1% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.2% yoy, up from prior month’s 5.0% yoy. The highest contribution came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.88%), followed by energy (+2.79%), services (+1.83%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.70%).

                                      EU CPI was finalized at 10.4% yoy, down from prior month’s 11.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Spain (5.5%), Luxembourg (6.2%) and France (6.7%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (25.0%), Latvia (20.7%) and Lithuania (20.0%). Compared with November, annual inflation fell in twenty-two Member States, remained stable in two and rose in three.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Eurozone posts EUR 12.4B trade surplus, EU faces export weakness to US, China

                                        Eurozone trade data were stable in July, with exports edging up 0.4% yoy to EUR 251.5B while imports rose 3.1% yoy to EUR 239.1B. That produced a EUR 12.4B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade grew 1.9% yoy to EUR 226.1B. The numbers reflect the bloc’s continued reliance on internal demand to cushion against weaker global flows.

                                        The EU as a whole painted a softer picture, with exports down -0.5% yoy to EUR 227.7B against imports up 1.2% yoy to EUR 215.6B. The resulting EUR 12.1B surplus was still positive but underscored the relative drag from external markets. Intra-EU trade proved firmer, rising 2.9% yoy to EUR 349.2B.

                                        Bilateral trends showed notable divergences. EU exports to the US fell -4.4% yoy and to China -6.6% yoy, underscoring pressure from global trade frictions. By contrast, exports to the UK rose 2.9% yoy and to Switzerland surged 9.4% yoy. On the import side, flows to the EU from the US jumped 10.7% yoy, from China rose 3.9% yoy, from Switzerland 6.8% yoy, and from the UK a modest 0.6% yoy.

                                        Full Eurozone and EU trade balance release here.

                                        US NFP misses with 73k growth and sharp downward revision, EUR/USD bounces

                                          U.S. non-farm payrolls rose just 73k in July, well short of the expected 102k. Unusually large revisions made the picture worse—June’s job growth was slashed from 147k to a mere 14k. Unemployment rate edged up from 4.1% to 4.2% as expected, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, keeping the annual pace at 3.9%.

                                          While not a disaster, the report showed a clear loss of momentum in hiring, pushing a September rate cut by the Fed back into focus. The sharp downward revision to June data adds weight to concerns that labor market strength is fading more quickly than anticipated.

                                          EUR/USD bounces notably after the release as Dollar is sold off broadly. Immediate focus is now on 1.1555 support turned resistance. Sustained break there will argue that corrective pattern from 1.1829 has completed with three waves down to 1.1390. Further rally would then be seen back to 1.1788/1829 resistance zone.

                                          Full US NFP release here.