DOW already in medium term reversal? 24531 is next test

    Let’s have a look at DOW after yesterday’s steep, -831 pts or -3.15% fall.

    The strong break of 55 day EMA, coupled with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, is significantly raising the chance that it’s now in medium term reversal. From price structure point of view, there was also a beautiful wave four triangle from 26616.71 to 23997.21, followed by a short impulse wave five from 23997.21 to 26951.81. Unless DOW could get back above 55 day EMA quickly, otherwise, risk is now heavily on the downside.

    So how far could DOW fall to? If we take a less bearish view, it’s just correcting the uptrend from 2016 low at 15450.56 to 26951.81. Then, first support is 55 week EMA (now at 24531.54). Defending this support will keep the medium term intact and invalidate the above mentioned medium term reversal case. However, firm break there should at least send DOW back to 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26951.81 at 22558.33 before bottoming.

    China production, retail sales, investment all missed expectations

      The batch of October economic data released from China today is way below expectations. Industrial production growth slowed to 4.7% yoy, below expectation of 5.5% yoy. Fixed asset investment slowed to 5.2% ytd yoy, below expectation of 5.4%. That’s also the worst January-October growth since record began in 1996. Retail sales grew 7.2% yoy, missed expectation of 7.8% yoy, matching the more than 16 year low hit in April.

      The chance of a recovery in growth momentum hinges on the results of the trade negotiations with US. Tariff rollbacks would be the key for the “easier” phase one deal. Without removing some of the imposed tariffs, in particular the September ones, the deal would be rather meaningless to the real Chinese economy. Of course, the biggest challenges come in the second phase of negotiations when core and fundamental issues, like subsidies to state-owned enterprises, would be addressed.

      The Hong Kong HSI drops sharply today in response to the poor Chinese data. It’s also following the steep selloff this week as unrest in the city escalates abruptly. Current development affirms our view that corrective rebound from 24899.93 has completed with three waves up to 27894.56. Deeper fall should be seen back to retest 24899.93 low next.

      NIESR expects no BoE hike until August 2020

        UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) pushed back their BoE rate expectation by a year in the new forecasts. NIESR economist Garry Young said “now we expect the first increase in Bank Rate to be next August rather than this August.”

        NIESR also noted that Brexit related uncertainty “has led to investment plans being deferred and increased stockbuilding.” Under the main scenario of “soft Brexit”, GDP growth will continue at around 1.5% in both 2019 and 2020. Unemployment rate will stay at around 4%. CPI will remain at around 2%.

        Regarding different Brexit scenarios, growth will be similar between staying in EU and “soft Brexit”. However, growth will be weaker is UK is to stay in the customs union, and even worse in a no-deal Brexit.

        Press release here.

        Prospects for the UK Economy” details.

        Bitcoin quickly approaching 41k strong support zone with another Musk prompted selloff

          Bitcoin is in another steep selloff after Tesla CEO Elon Musk implied that the company might sell its holdings. A self claimed “crypto analyst” @CryptoWhale tweeted, “Bitcoiners are going to slap themselves next quarter when they find out Tesla dumped the rest of their #Bitcoin holdings. With the amount of hate @elonmusk is getting, I wouldn’t blame him…”. Musk replied “indeed”.

          Bitcoin has now taken out 47112 support to resume the correction from 64828. It’s now on track to 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 64828 at 41591, which is close to the top of prior range of 28989/41964. We’re expecting strong support from this 41591/41964 zone to contain downside and bring rebound, at least for the first attempt.

          Break of 51511 resistance is needed to be the first sign that such correction from 64828 has completed. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of rebound. Firm break of 41951/41964 will set up another crash to 61.8% retracement at 27236, which is in proximity to the lower end of the above mentioned rate at 28989.

          Japan yield curve distortion worsens, Nikkei down

            Japanese stocks, bonds and currency market remain rather nervous today, as traders are eyeing BoJ policy decision on Wednesday. The yield curve “distortion”, as described by the central bank, was getting more serious after 8- and 9-year yield surged past 0.6% handle last week. At the same time, 10-year JGB yield, closed at 0.514, is still firmly tied to the 0.5% cap. Both 8- and 9-year yield closed down but stayed above 10-year’s level at 0.624 and 0.632.

            As speculation on a YCC tweak to rectify the distortion intensified , Nikkei declined -1.14% to close at 25822.32. Technically speaking, while deeper decline is possibly for the near term, strong support should be seen around 24681.74 to contain downside. The level is close to 55 month EMA, which stands at 24754.15. Nikkei has been continuously supported by the EMA, as well as the long term channel, for a decade, barring the initial two months of the pandemic. But a firm break of 24681.74 will indicate something rather substantial is happening.

            US-China joint statement vowing not to launch a trade war

              US and China issued a joint statement on Saturday to conclude the trade talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on May 17 and 18. There was no mentioning of any number, but the statement said there were “consensus on taking effective measures to substantially reduce” US trade deficit in goods with China. And, China agreed to “significantly increase purchase” of US goods and services.

              Additionally, there would be “meaningful increases” in US agriculture and energy exports to China, “expanding trade” in manufactured goods and services, encouraging “two-way investment” with “fair, level playing field for competition”. China also pledged to work on laws and regulations on intellectually property protections.

              The Chinese State-owned Xinhua news agency described the statement as “vowing not to launch a trade war against each other”.

              Here is a graphical summary by Xinhua.

              Full statement below:

              THE WHITE HOUSE – Office of the Press Secretary
              FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – May 19, 2018

              Joint Statement of the United States and China Regarding Trade Consultations

              At the direction of President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping, on May 17 and 18, 2018, the United States and China engaged in constructive consultations regarding trade in Washington, D.C. The United States delegation included Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur L. Ross, and United States Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer. The Chinese delegation was led by State Council Vice Premier Liu He, Special Envoy of President Xi.

              There was a consensus on taking effective measures to substantially reduce the United States trade deficit in goods with China. To meet the growing consumption needs of the Chinese people and the need for high-quality economic development, China will significantly increase purchases of United States goods and services. This will help support growth and employment in the United States.

              Both sides agreed on meaningful increases in United States agriculture and energy exports. The United States will send a team to China to work out the details.

              The delegations also discussed expanding trade in manufactured goods and services. There was consensus on the need to create favorable conditions to increase trade in these areas.

              Both sides attach paramount importance to intellectual property protections, and agreed to strengthen cooperation. China will advance relevant amendments to its laws and regulations in this area, including the Patent Law.

              Both sides agreed to encourage two-way investment and to strive to create a fair, level playing field for competition.

              Both sides agreed to continue to engage at high levels on these issues and to seek to resolve their economic and trade concerns in a proactive manner.

              China raises FX RRR to 20% to stabilize Yuan from free fall, Dollar tumbles broadly. Is that manipulation?

                Offshore Chinese Yuan staged a strong rebound, while Dollar tumbles across the board, after China’s Central bank announced measure to curb capital outflow and stabilize the falling Yuan exchange rate.

                The People’s Bank of China said after market close that it raises the “foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward sales from 0% to 20%, effective August 6, 2018. According to the statement, it’s an act to “prevent macro financial risks, promote the stable operation of financial institutions, and strengthen macro-prudential management.”

                In the next step, PBoC will “continue to strengthen the monitoring of the foreign exchange market,” and, “take effective measures to carry out countercyclical adjustments, maintain the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.”

                Full statement in simplified Chinese.

                USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) tumbles sharply after hitting 6.912 earlier today, and it looks like it’s set to take on 6.8 handle soon.

                Dollar tumbles across the board in the current 4H bar, just ahead of NFP. It’s also the weakest major currency for today now.

                We’ve mentioned many times that the Chinese Government won’t allow free fall of the Yuan happens. If they’re going to do something, they will either halt its decline, or at best, slow the Yuan’s decline.

                This is clear exchange rate manipulation to us. Where is Mnuchin? Where is Trump? Don’t move goal post, and stop your lies. Come out and tell China to stop the manipulation!

                ECB to turn more hawkish, EUR/CHF recovering

                  ECB is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged today. But with inflation at a record high of 7.5%, the central bank is also expected to sing a more hawkish tune. There should be an announcement to put a firm end date to the asset purchase program. Interest rate hike will only come “some time” after ending the purchases.

                  There are talks that putting an end date to asset purchases in June would open up the possibility of a rate hike in September, followed by another in December. But President Christine Lagarde will certainly continue to sound non-committal, but emphasize the importance of graduality, optionality and flexibility for the policy path ahead.

                  Here are some previews on ECB:

                  EUR/CHF’s reaction to ECB decision and press conference is worth some attention. So far, the decline from 1.0400 is not impulsive looking. The cross has also started to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. A break above 1.0204 minor resistance today will suggest that such pull back is finished. More importantly, in this case, rebound from 0.9970 is likely ready to resume through 1.0400. That, if happens, could give Euro a helping hand elsewhere.

                  Bitcoin extending correction, support expected at 32668

                    Bitcoin’s pull back from 41964.0 accelerates lower today, following general rebound in Dollar. While deeper fall could not be rule out, recovery should be around the corner. We’re expecting some support from 38.2% retracement of 17629.0 to 41964.0 at 32668.03 to contain downside, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. This fibonacci level is also close to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 32859.7). A break above 37126.0 minor resistance will confirm stabilization, and turn BTC/USD into a sideway pattern. Though, firm break of the mentioned support zone would bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 26,924.97 instead.

                    US NFP grows 150k, unemployment rate rose to 3.9%

                      US non-farm payroll employment grew 150k in October, below expectation of 172k. That’s well below average monthly gain of 258k over the prior 12 months.

                      Unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, above expectation of being unchanged at 3.8%. Participation rate dropped from 62.8% to 62.7%.

                      Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the 12 months, average hourly earnings rose 4.1% yoy.

                      Full US non-farm payroll release here.

                      GBP/AUD accelerates up on risk selloff, pressing 1.7923 near term resistance

                        GBP/AUD’s rebound from 1.7412 accelerated this week on the back of steep risk pull back, and resilience in Sterling. The cross hits as high as 1.7944 so far and stays firm.

                        Immediate focus is now on 1.7923 resistance. Decisive break there will argue that fall from 1.8523 has completed. Rise from 1.7412 could indeed be correcting whole down trend from 2.0840 to 1.7412. In this case, stronger rally would be seen through 1.8523 to 38.2% retracement of 2.0840 to 1.7412 at 1.8721 in short to medium term.

                        However, rejection by 1.7923 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 1.7700 support will bring retest of 1.7412 low.

                        Fed Evans: More fiscal relief needed to limit further damage to households and businesses

                          Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned, “we are taking a very serious and unnecessary risk if we do not extend federal assistance to out-of-work households.” He added, “the potential hole in aggregate demand may be large, and in my view more fiscal relief is needed in order to limit further damage to households and businesses, especially those in vulnerable communities.”

                          “The longer the dual challenges of the pandemic and recession continue, the greater is the risk of deepening the already stark inequities in our economy,” he added.

                          New York Fed President John Williams said, “Structural inequality stifles growth, but there is no single silver bullet that can solve the problems laid bare by the pandemic”. “There is so much work that needs to be done to make sure that we are fostering an equitable recovery and ensuring that everyone is able to fulfill their economic potential,” he said.

                          EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD uptrend resumptions

                            Both Euro and Sterling have made significant gains against Australian and Canadian Dollars this week, resuming medium-term uptrends in respective crosses. Overnight comments from a top ECB official suggest that a 50bps rate hike may be on the table for May policy meeting. Meanwhile, recent UK data underscores the necessity for BoE to extend its tightening measures in order to combat persistently high, double-digit inflation.

                            On the other hand, there is no data supporting a shift from BoC’s current pause in rate hikes. Australian dollar appears vulnerable ahead of tomorrow’s crucial CPI release, which will likely determine whether RBA will implement a final rate hike in the current cycle.

                            EUR/AUD’s up trend from 1.4281 is now in progress for 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6949. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.6219 support holds, in case of retreat.

                            EUR/CAD’s break of 1.4935 confirmed resumption of whole up trend from 1.2867. Immediate target is 61.8% projection of 1.3270 to 1.4640 from 1.4236 at 1.5083. Sustained break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.5606. Meanwhile, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.4261 support holds, in case of retreat.

                            GBP/AUD’s breach of 1.8697 resistance argues that uptrend from 1.5925 is resuming. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.8393 support holds, in case of retreat. Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 1.5925 to 1.8272 from 1.7218 at 1.8668 could prompt upside acceleration to 1.9218 resistance and then 100% projection at 1.9565.

                            GBP/CAD’s break of 1.6846 resistance also indicates resumption of up trend from 1.4069. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.6535 support holds. Current rise should target 61.8% projection of 1.4069 to 1.6846 from 1.6075 at 1.7791 next.

                            China released 36k-word white paper showing it’s not backing down on trade war with US

                              China’s State Council release a “White Paper on China-US Economic and Trade Frictions and China’s Position” today. This 36000 words paper consists of six sections, detailing the benefits of the bilateral trade, the economic and trade relations, US protectionism and trade hegemonism, the threat of US practice to world economy and China’s own position.

                              In particular, the paper condemns the under the “America First” bandwagon, the new US government “abandoned the basic norms of international exchanges such as mutual respect and equal consultation, and implemented unilateralism, protectionism and economic hegemonism.”And the US used different means to “carry out economic intimidation, and impose extreme pressure its own interests impose its own interests on China.” The paper also detailed the new protectionist measures of the US. These include measures that discriminate products of other countries, abused national security investigations, subsidies on local industries.

                              China’s own position include defending the “dignity and core interests of the country”, “promote healthy trade relationship with the US”, “promote and improve multilateral trade system”, “protect property and intellectual property rights”, “protect rights of foreign businesses in China”, “continue deepening reforms on opening the markets”, work on win-win relationships with developed and developing countries”, etc.

                              All-in-all, the main message is that China is not going to back down in the trade conflicts. That’s what we get. Below are the links to the details as reported by the official Xinhua (in simplified Chinese). Look like they’re pretty serious.

                              Eurozone CPI finalized at 7% yoy in Apr, CPI core at 5.6% yoy

                                Eurozone CPI was finalized at 7.0% yoy in April, up from March’s 6.9% yoy. The highest contribution to came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.75%), followed by services (+2.21%), non-energy industrial goods (+1.62%) and energy (+0.38%). CPI core (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 5.6% yoy, down from prior month’s 5.7% yoy.

                                EU CPI was finalized at 8.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Luxembourg (2.7%), Belgium (3.3%) and Spain (3.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (24.5%), Latvia (15.0%) and Czechia (14.3%). Compared with March, annual inflation fell in twenty-two Member States and rose in five.

                                Full Eurozone CPI release here.

                                Silver accelerates up, taking Gold higher

                                  Silver’s impressive rally intensified yesterday, pulling Gold upwards in its wake. This surge seems to be a direct response to the retracement of benchmark treasury yields in both the US and Europe, which were affected by less-than-stellar PMI figures. Market sentiment is now swaying towards the belief that major central banks might be quickly approaching the finale of their tightening cycle. All eyes are set on upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. While the spotlight is certainly on the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, insights and comments from other prominent central bankers are also poised to influence market directions.

                                  Technically, Silver’s strong break of 55 D EMA affirms the case that consolidation pattern from 26.12 has completed with three waves to 22.21. Further rise is now expected as long as this 55 D EMA (now at 23.56) holds, to 25.25 resistance first. Decisive break there should confirm this bullish case, and should also resume whole up trend from 17.54 (2022 low). Next target would be 100% projection of 17.54 to 24.62 from 19.88 at 26.96.

                                  As for Gold, a short term bottom is in place at 1884.83, with D MACD crossed above signal line. Further rebound is now in favor to 55 D EMA (now at 1932.52). Sustained break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 2062.95 has completed with three waves down to 1884.83, after defending 38.2% retracement of 1614.60 to 2062.95 at 1891.68. Stronger rally would then be seen to 1987.22 resistance to confirm this bullish scenario.

                                  Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment plunges to 81, bleakest start since 90s

                                    Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index dropped by -1.3% mom to 81 in January. This figure is especially significant as it ranks in the bottom 7% of all observations since the inception of the survey in the mid-1970s. The only other instances of more pessimistic starts to the year were observed during the severe recession of the early 1990s.

                                    Westpac attributed this “intense pressure” on consumers to surging cost of living, significantly higher interest rates, and increased tax burden, all of which are collectively impacting consumer incomes.

                                    Despite the subdued consumer sentiment, Westpac highlighted that high inflation remains the primary concern for RBA. This focus on inflation suggests that the upcoming quarterly CPI release at the end of January will be a crucial determinant of RBA’s policy decision in February.

                                    “On balance, we expect the RBA to leave rates unchanged in February, and to be unlikely to raise rates further from here,” Westpac noted. However, it also cautioned that an unexpected surge in inflation could complicate the decision, making it “a more finely balanced decision”.

                                    Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

                                    Fed Bullard: Stay with very easy monetary policy inside the pandemic tunnel

                                      St. Louis President James Bullard said in a Bloomberg TV interview that “It’s too early to talk about changing monetary policy.” Policymakers want to “stay with our very easy monetary policy while we are still in the pandemic tunnel”. “If we get to the end of the tunnel,” he added, “it will be time to start assessing where we want to go next.”

                                      “When you start to get to 75% vaccinated, 80% vaccinated and CDC starts to give more hopeful messages that we are bringing this under better control and starts relaxing some of their guidelines, then I think the whole economy will gain confidence from that,” Bullard said. “Cases are up right now, that is a little bit concerning.”

                                      RBA Key Economic Indicators Snapshot

                                        RBA Key Economic Indicators Snapshot

                                        As at March 12, 2018

                                        • Cash rate: 1.5%
                                        • Economic growth: 2.4%
                                        • Inflation: 1.9%
                                        • Unemployment rate: 5.5%
                                        • Employment growth: 3.3%
                                        • Wage growth 2.1%
                                        • Average weekly earnings: AUD 1192
                                        • Household saving ratio: 2.7%
                                        • Net foreign liabilities: 55% of GDP
                                        • AUD 1 = USD 0.79
                                        • China GDP growth: 6.8%
                                        • G7 GDP growth: 2.3%

                                        Economics professor Giovanni Tria might replace Paolo Savona as Italian Economy Minister

                                          It’s reported that  Italy’s anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the far-right League party are close to finding that “point of compromise” in replacing Paolo Savona as economy minister in the government.

                                          The name of economics professor Giovanni Tria flow around in the media. Meanwhile, law professor Giuseppe Conte will likely remain as prime minister. Decision could come as soon as on Friday. And if these names are accepted by President Sergio Mattarella, a snap election could be averted and a coalition government would finally be formed.