OECD outlined two “equally probable scenarios” for the world economy in a report released today. In the “single-hit scenario”, second wave of coronavirus pandemic is avoided. Global economic activity would fall -6% in 2020, with unemployment rates jumping to 9.2%, up from 5.4% in 2019. “living standards fall less sharply than with a second wave but five years of income growth is lost across the economy by 2021”.
In the “double-hit scenario”, a second wave of infections hits before year-end. A renewed outbreak of infections would trigger a return to lock-downs. World economic output would plummet -7.6% this year, before climbing back 2.8% in 2021. OECD unemployment rate would nearly double to 10% with little recovery in jobs by 2021.
🔴 WATCH NOW | The global economy faces a tightrope walk to #recovery: Our Secretary-General @A_Gurria & Chief Economist @LauBooneEco present the latest OECD #EconomicOutlook ➡️ https://t.co/8yKFkPn8XD https://t.co/UK5jXQMEf4
— OECD ➡️ Better policies for better lives (@OECD) June 10, 2020