More from China, the Finance Ministry announced the counter measures to US threat of imposing 25% products on USD 200B in Chinese goods. The State Council’s Customs Tariff Commission decided to impost additional levies on 5207 US products, totalling around USD 60B in value.
Additional 25% tariff will be imposed on 2493 products, additional 20% on 1078 products, additional 10% on 974 products and additional 5% on 662 products. The effect date is to be determined.
In the account of September 9-10 monetary policy meeting, ECB attributed the recent appreciation in Euro exchange to two main drivers. The first and most important one was “substantial improvement in global risk sentiment” and “reversal of previous safe-have flows” into the US. The second was “likely related to monetary policies implemented in the United States and the euro area”. Looking ahead “market positioning remained tilted towards further euro appreciation”.
Members considered that a further appreciation of Euro “constituted a risk to both growth and inflation”. A “significant impact of the exchange rate appreciation on euro area inflation had been included in the September 2020 ECB staff projections.” Nevertheless, an argument was made that the ultimate impact of a “one-off adjustment” of the exchange rate would be seen in the “level of prices” rather than in “rate of inflation”. The economic impacts were also “difficult to reliably disentangle”.
Trump’s move to escalate trade war with China got full support from Democrat Senate leader Chuck Schumer. Schumer urged Trump to “hang tough on China” in a tweet” and “don’t back down”. He added “strength is the only way to win with China”.
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White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow tried to tone down the threat and said trump is merely “issuing a warning here”. He told Fox News that ” we bent over backwards earlier, we suspended the 25 percent tariff to 10 and then we’ve left it there. That may not be forever if the talks don’t work out”
However, an informal trade adviser to Trump, Michael Pillsbury, clearly disagreed with Kudlow. He said “I take the president’s tweet at face value. I was disappointed that Larry Kudlow downgraded it to a mere warning, which may tend to undermine American credibility as the Chinese delegation prepares its position”.
It’s unsure for now whether Trump is really intending to drop the negotiations abruptly. Or, he’s just trying to push China for last minute concessions on some key issues. But the act could firstly undermine credibility of the US in negotiations with other countries. And, it could also undermine Trump’s own credibility as he’s told the public numerous times that a deal was close.
As BoC is widely expected to raise interest rates by another 25 bps to 5.00% today, the financial market awaits the answer on whether this move marks the end of the current tightening cycle. The hike today is expected after the bank restarted tightening last month, with many speculating that terminal rate could be reached with this adjustment.
However, the future pathway is fraught with uncertainties, and the key focus will be on how BoC chooses to communicate its stance. There are anticipations that Governor Tiff Macklem may maintain a hawkish tone, keeping options open and underscoring the bank’s determination to combat inflation that continues to overshoot target. Alternatively, the bank may more explicitly signal another “conditional pause”, like it did in January. Regardless of the approach, the new economic forecasts to be released today will be crucial in underpinning their message.
Some previews on BoC:
CAD/JPY is continuing the fall from 109.48 short term top today. The favored case is that this decline from 109.48 is the third leg of the pattern from 110.87 high. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 104.86) would solidify this bearish case and target 38.2% retracement of 94.04 to 109.48 at 103.58 next. Break of 106.85 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and bring recovery first. But even in this case, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 109.48 resistance holds.
US Trade Representative finally announced the tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese imports, effective September 24, 2018. The initial tariff rate is 10%. Staring January 1, 2019, the tariff rate will be increased to 25%. The list of products covers 5745 lines of the original 6031 lines proposed back in July 10. 297 lines were fully or partially removed from the list. Products include consumer electronics, certain chemical inputs for manufactured goods, textiles and agriculture; certain health and safety products such as bicycle helmets, and child safety furniture such as car seats and playpens.
The tariffs were part of the follow-up actions on Section 301 investigations. China’s unfair trade practices were repeated in the statement. These include, forced technology transfer, depriving UA companies to set market based terms in negotiations, unfairly facilitating systematic investment in acquisition of US technology companies, and cyber intrusions to US commercial computer networks for valuable business information.
Trump warned in a statement that new round of tariffs on around USD 267B of additional imports will be pursued if China retaliates. He added that “we have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly.” “But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices.”
US CPI rose 0.5% mom in January while CPI core rose 0.4% mom. Both matched expectations. Food index rose 0.5% mom while energy index rose 2.0% mom.
Over the last 12 months, CPI slowed from 6.5% yoy to 6.4% yoy, above expectation of 6.2% yoy. That’s nonetheless the lowest reading since October 2021. CPI core slowed from 5.7% yoy to 5.6% yoy, above expectation of 5.5% yoy, but was the lowest since December 2021. Energy index rose 8.7% yoy while food index rose 10.1% yoy.
EUR/CHF’s rise from 1.0503 resumes by breaking through 1.1096 resistance, and hits as high as 1.1118 so far. Further rally should now be seen to 100% projection of 1.0503 to 1.0915 from 1.0737 at 1.1149. Sustained break there will indicate upside acceleration and carries larger bullish implications. Next target will be 161.8% projection at 1.1404.
Now, a focus will be on GBP/CHF to gauge the general selling pressure on Swiss Franc. Break of 1.2893 will resume the larger rise from 1.1102, Next target will be 1.3310 resistance, and probably further to 161.8% projection of 1.1102 to 1.2259 from 1.1683 at 1.3555.
CHF/JPY is another cross to look at. Firm break of 116.20 support will argue that whole rise from 106.71has completed at 118.84. Deeper fall would be seen back to 113.73 support first.
The massacre of cryptocurrencies continues today as Ethereum resumes recent steep fall and hit as low as 2198.70 so far. The fall from 4863.75 is still in progress to 161.8% projection 4863.75 to 3439.00 from 4126.20 at 1820.95, which is below 2000 and above 1715.62 low. Considering deeply oversold condition in daily RSI, some support should be seen below 2000 to bring an overdue rebound. But in any case, break of 2927.20 support turned resistance is needed to indicate bottoming. Otherwise, risk will still stay on the downside.
Bitcoin also drops to as low as 33019 so far. Daily RSI is deeply oversold while BTC is close to 29261 support. There should be signs of bottoming ahead. But still, break of 39636 support turned resistance is needed to indicate bottoming, or risk will stay heavily on the downside. The more bearish scenario is not favored yet, but bitcoin could extend the down trend from 68986 to 100% projection at 25023 if it couldn’t defend 30k handle.
ECB announced to increase the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)Â by EUR 600B to a total of EUR 1350B today. Purchases will continue to conducted in a “flexible manner over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions”.
Also, the horizon of PEPP net purchases will be extended to “at least the end of June 2021”. Additionally, “the Governing Council will conduct net asset purchases under the PEPP until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over.” Maturing principal payments will also be reinvested “until at least the end of 2022”.
Asset purchase programme net purchase will continue at monthly pace of EUR 20B and it’s expected to “run for as long as necessary”. Reinvestments of principal payments will also continue, “for an extended period of time”.
Interest rates are held unchanged, with main refinancing rate at 0.00%, marginal facility rate at 0.25% and deposit rate at -0.50%.
US Non-Farm Payroll employment rose 353k in January, significantly surpassing expectation of 178k. Prior month’s growth was also revised sharply higher from 216k to 333k. Both were well above monthly average of 255k growth in 2023.
Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, below expectation of 3.8%. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%.
Average hourly earnings grew 0.6% mom, well above expectation of 0.3% mom. Annual hourly earnings growth also accelerated from 4.4% yoy to 4.5% yoy, above expectation of 4.1% yoy.
December brought mixed signals from China’s manufacturing sector, as indicated by two key indices: Caixin PMI and official NBS PMI. Caixin PMI Manufacturing slightly increased from 50.7 to 50.8, surpassing expectations of 50.4, suggesting a marginal yet steady expansion in the manufacturing sector. Notably, Caixin highlighted that both output and new orders are rising at faster rates, indicating increased production and demand within the industry.
However, the same period saw a dip in official PMI Manufacturing, which fell from 49.4 to 49.0. This decline suggests contraction in the sector, contrasting with optimism reflected in Caixin PMI data. The difference between these two indices can be attributed to their varied focus groups; Caixin PMI typically surveys small and medium-sized enterprises, while NBS PMI is more reflective of larger, state-owned companies.
Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, emphasized the improved economic outlook for the manufacturing sector, with expanding supply and demand, and stable price levels. Yet, he also pointed out significant challenge in employment, highlighting businesses’ cautious approach in areas like hiring, raw material purchasing, and inventory management.
On the other hand, NBS PMI Non-Manufacturing showed a slight improvement, rising from 50.2 to 50.4. This marginal increase suggests a modest expansion in China’s services sector.
Fed left federal funds rate target rate unchanged at 0.00-0.25% as widely expected, by unanimous vote. FOMC also pledged to maintain the target range “until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.” Additionally, Fed will “increase its holdings of treasury and MBS “at least at the current pace”.
In the accompanying statement, FOMC said that the coronavirus and containment measures “have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses”. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are “holding down consumer price inflation”. Though, financial conditions “have improved” due to policy measures.
Fed also said it will “continue to monitor implications of incoming information” and pledged to “use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy”. The range of information watched include “measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”
Full statement below.
Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.
The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Financial conditions have improved, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.
The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.
Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% mom in August, below expectation of 0.8% mom. Looking at some details, production of durable consumer goods rose by 6.8% mom, intermediate goods by 3.1% mom and energy by 2.3% mom, while production of both capital goods and non-durable consumer goods fell by -1.6% mom.
EU industrial production rose 1.0% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in industrial production were registered in Portugal (+10.0% mom), Italy (+7.7% mom), Hungary and Sweden (both +6.7% mom). The largest decreases were observed in Ireland (-13.4% mom), Estonia (-2.1% mom) and Luxembourg (-1.2% mom).
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Japan’s A+ long-term and A-1 short-term sovereign credit ratings. However, outlook is downgraded from positive to stable as the “weak government finances have deteriorated further in fiscal 2020 owing to the COVID-19 pandemic”.
“The fiscal position should improve materially once the outbreak recedes and economic growth returns. Nevertheless, we expect the fiscal deficit will remain relatively high” in fiscal 2021 through 2023, it said.
However, “should real interest rates increase sharply at some point, this would severely strain the government’s debt dynamics,” it added. “This could occur if investors demand a higher risk premium and push up nominal interest rates. But we believe the greater risk is from renewed and persistent deflation.”
Eurozone industrial production rose 4.1% mom in July, above expectation of 2.8% mom. Production of capital goods rose by 5.3% mom, durable consumer goods by 4.7% mom, intermediate goods by 4.2% mom, non-durable consumer goods by 3.9% mom and energy by 1.1% mom.
EU industrial production also rose 4.1% mom in the month. The highest increases were registered in Portugal (+11.9% mom), Spain (+9.4% mom) and Ireland (+8.3% mom). Decreases were observed in Denmark (-4.9% mom), Latvia (-0.8% mom) and Belgium (-0.5% mom).
Japan industrial production rose 1.7% mom in August, above expectation of 1.5% mom. That’s also the third straight month of growth, as boosted by automobiles and car parts, as well ass iron, steel and non-ferrous metals. Shipments rose 2.1% mom. Inventories dropped -1.4%. Inventory ratio dropped -2.5%. Over the year, production was down -13.3% yoy.
On the other hand, retail sales dropped -1.9% yoy in August, better than expectation of -3.5% yoy. But that’s still the sixth consecutive month of decline, highlighting the weak recovery in consumer demand.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.1 to 47.8 in February, below expectation of 49.5. Manufacturing sector continued to contract for the 16th month.
Looking at some details, new orders fell from 52.5 to 49.2. Production fell from 50.4 to 48.4. Employment fell from 47.1 to 45.9. Prices fell from 52.9 to 52.5.
ISM said: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the February reading (47.8 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.5 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”
New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped to 52.8 in June, down from 54.4. BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the slow-down in expansion was mainly due to ongoing drops in a key sub-index.
“Production (51.8) experienced another decrease in expansion levels for June, which meant it was down to its lowest point since January 2017. On a positive note, the other key sub-index of New Orders (57.1) remained in healthy territory, which at least should feed through to production levels in the coming months.
In addition, the proportion of positive comments in June (51.7%) decreased from May (55.1%), and very similar to February (51.4%). Those who provided negative comments typically noted a general downturn and uncertainty in the market”.
BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that “broadly speaking, the PMI has settled down into a trend-like pace this year, averaging 53.8 (excluding April’s spike). This is after outperformance through most of 2017, when it averaged 56.2”.
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 10.6% yoy in October, up from September’s 9.9% yoy. CPI core (all item ex energy, food, alcohol, & tobacco), was finalized at 5.0% yoy, up from prior month’s 4.8% yoy. The highest contribution to annual inflation rate came from energy (+4.44%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.74%), services (+1.82%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.62%).
EU CPI was finalized at 11.5% yoy, up from September’s 10.9% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in France (7.1%), Spain (7.3%) and Malta (7.4%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (22.5%), Lithuania (22.1%) and Hungary (21.9%). Compared with September, annual inflation fell in eleven Member States, remained stable in three and rose in thirteen.
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CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, which is our preferred choice to go long?
AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and, CAD/JPY are the clear winners for the day on easing risk aversion. These three pairs are in the top 10 movers across time frames. But which one pair is the better one to go long?
A quick glance at AUD/CAD. The cross is clearly in persistent downside D action bias table. And there is no sign of a turn in both 6H and H action bias. This is consistent with smooth decline as seen in the D action bias chart.
How about NZD/CAD? The action bias table shows it’s having persistent blue bars in W time frame and persistent red bars in D time frame. But red bars of downside bias are not apparent in 6H and H time frames. Looking at the D chart, NZD/CAD has been in a solid up trend since December, but turned into correction/consolidation since mid March.
The NZD/JPY action bias table showed persistence upside bias blue bars in H and 6H time frame. This also pushes D action bias to upside side blue too. Taking into consideration that 78.61 resistance is taken out decisively today to confirm near term reversal. NZD/JPY presents long opportunity for 81.55 resistance in near term.