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Trump will use China tariffs to buy US farm products, building new infrastructure, on healthcare…

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    ActionForex.com
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    In a series of tweets today, Trump indicates he’s now in no rush to seal the trade deal with China, given that new tariffs are already in plan. Trump said “Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner – there is absolutely no need to rush – as Tariffs are NOW being paid” going “directly to the Treasury”.

    And, additionally Trump said with over USD 100B in tariffs, “we will buy agricultural products from our Great Farmers, in larger amounts than China ever did, and ship it to poor & starving countries in the form of humanitarian assistance.”

    Also, “If we bought 15 Billion Dollars of Agriculture from our Farmers, far more than China buys now, we would have more than 85 Billion Dollars left over for new Infrastructure, Healthcare, or anything else. China would greatly slow down, and we would automatically speed up!”

    It actually sounds a bit like a mix of state capitalism and socialism.

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    ECB Praet talked convergence, confidence and resilience

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      ECB chief economist Peter Praet said in a speech yesterday that “progress towards a sustained adjustment in inflation has been substantial so far.” And, “the underlying strength of the euro area economy, together with well-anchored, longer-term inflation expectations, provides grounds to be confident that the sustained convergence of inflation will continue in the period ahead, even after a gradual winding-down of net asset purchases.”

      He discussed the three criteria of progress assessment: convergence, confidence and resilience. As for convergence, ECB staff projections expect headline and core inflation to hit 1.7% and 1.9% respectively in 2020. This is a “pattern of convergence” to target. Uncertainty on inflation outlook “has been declining significantly” and risk of deflation “has vanished”. Inflation expectations have been “gradually improving” and domestic cost pressures are “strengthening”. These provide improving confidence. Also, the protected inflation convergence has become ” progressively less reliant on further extensions of net asset purchases”, which shows improved resilience.

      Praet also reiterated that “patience, prudence and persistence” are fully reflected in our latest monetary policy decisions. ECB announced in June to taper the asset purchase to EUR 10B per month after September, and end it after December, based on incoming data. Also, interest rates will remain at present level at least through 2019 summer.

      Full speech of Praet “Ensuring a sustained adjustment in inflation”.

      RBNZ inflation expectations dropped, solidifying case for another rate cut

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        ActionForex.com
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        In RBNZ’s quarterly Survey of Expectations report, inflation expectation for one year ahead dropped from 1.71% to 1.66%. Expectations for two years ahead also dropped from 1.86% to 1.80%. Mean expectation for the end of quarter OCR dropped from 1.32% to 0.79%. One year expectations also dropped form 1.13 to 0.61%.

        The release solidify the case for another RBNZ rate cut to 0.75% tomorrow. The key now is whether RBNZ would give any indication of easing bias, even after the cut. In particular, traders would look for phrase like “there is scope for further fiscal and monetary easing if necessary.”

        Full release here.

        US Mnuchin: If there is no trade deal with China, tariffs would go in place

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          ActionForex.com
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          US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC today that he expected President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be able to finish the trade agreement during their anticipated meeting in Chile on November 16-17. He also echoed Trump’s comments last week and said recent round of discussions covered intellectual property rights, financial services including currency and foreign exchange, and “very significant structural issues” dealing with agriculture. Though, Mnuchin also warned, “I have every expectation if there’s not a deal those tariffs would go in place”, referring to the next round of tariffs scheduled to mid-December.

          On the other hand, Chinese media sounded much less enthusiastic, as Trump. On Sunday, China Daily said, “while the negotiations do appear to have produced a fundamental understanding on the key issues and the broader benefits of friendly relations, the Champagne should probably be kept on ice, at least until the two presidents put pen to paper.” It also warned, “as based on its past practice, there is always the possibility that Washington may decide to cancel the deal if it thinks that doing so will better serve its interests.”

          Eurozone retail sales falls -0.2% mom in Dec, EU down -0.3% mom

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            ActionForex.com
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            Eurozone retail sales slipped by -0.2% mom in December, missing market expectations of -0.1% decline and pointing to continued weakness in consumer demand. The drop was largely driven by -0.7% contraction in food, drinks, and tobacco sales, while non-food products saw a modest 0.3% increase. Automotive fuel sales in specialized stores also ticked up 0.2%, providing some offset to the broader decline.

            At the EU-wide level, retail sales fell even further, down 0.3% mom. The country-level breakdown highlights stark contrasts in retail activity. Slovenia (-2.2%), Germany (-1.6%), and Poland (-1.5%) saw the sharpest contractions, while Slovakia (+8.2%), Finland (+2.1%), and Spain (+1.4%) registered solid gains.

            Full Eurozone retail sales release here.

            China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 50.8, employment expands again after five years

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              ActionForex.com
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              China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 50.8 in March, up from 49.9 and beat expectation of 50.0. The reading is back in expansionary region and is the highest since July 2018. Markit noted that production and total new work both increase at quicker rates. Also, employment expands for first time in over five years.

              Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

              “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 in March, up from 49.9 in the previous month, indicating a notable improvement in the manufacturing industry.

              “The subindex for new orders climbed to its highest level in four months, and the gauge for new export orders returned to expansionary territory, showing that both domestic and external demand rebounded moderately.

              “The output subindex continued to rise in expansionary territory. The employment subindex surged to a high not seen since January 2013. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas for February was the highest since early 2017, causing concerns about the job market. The situation improved significantly in March, indicating easing pressure on employment.

              “The measure for stocks of finished goods rebounded in March from the previous month’s near-three-year low, but remained in contractionary territory. The subindex for stocks of purchases returned to expansionary territory, pointing to manufacturers’ increasing willingness to restock. The subindex for suppliers’ delivery times picked up despite staying below 50, indicating an accelerating capital turnover at companies.

              “Both gauges for input costs and output charges edged up in to positive territory, with the latter posting a higher reading than the former, reflecting lower pressure from raw material costs. The producer price index might have risen faster year-on-year in March, and increased month-on-month, compared with a monthly decline in February.

              “Overall, with a more relaxed financing environment, government efforts to bail out the private sector and positive progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks, the situation across the manufacturing sector recovered in March. The employment situation improved greatly.”

              Full release here.

              Eurozone unemployment dropped to 8.4% in Oct EU unchanged at 7.6%

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                ActionForex.com
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                Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 8.4% in October, down from 8.5%, matched expectations. There were 13.825m unemployed in Eurozone, down -86k for the month.

                EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6% in October, 16.236m were unemployment, down -91k comparing to September.

                Full release here.

                BoJ Public Survey: 32.5% expects prices to go up significantly, up from 28.9%

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  According to BoJ’s December Survey on the General Public’s Views and Behavior, 32.5% of respondents expect prices will go up significantly one year from now, up from September’s survey of 28.9%. Those expecting prices to go up slightly dropped to 52.5%, down from 56.8%. Together, those expecting prices to go up dropped to 85.0%, down slightly from 85.7%. Only 2.4% expects prices to go down.

                  Regarding economic condition one year from now, those expecting improvement dropped to 9.1%, down from 10.5%. Those expecting unchanged dropped to 44.4%, down from 46.0%. Those expect worsening conditions rose to 46.2%, up from 42.9%. DI dropped to -37.1, down from -32.4.

                  Full release here.

                   

                  Canada GDP expands 0.1% mom in March, another 0.1% mom in April

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
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                    Canada’s GDP grew by 0.1% mom in March, in line with market expectations. Strength in goods-producing industries continued to support overall output. The sector expanded by 0.2%, marking its second lead contribution in the past three months.

                    Services-producing industries also edged higher by 0.1%. In total, 9 out of 20 sectors posted growth.

                    Looking ahead, preliminary data from Statistics Canada suggests another 0.1% increase in real GDP for April.

                    Full Canada’s GDP release here.

                    EUR/CAD downside breakout after BoC, GBP/CAD to follow?

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
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                      Canadian Dollar jumps broadly after surprisingly hawkish BoC policy decision. USD/CAD and CAD/JPY are still bounded in range. But EUR/CAD is taking the lead with downside breakout.

                      The break of 1.4317 in EUR/CAD suggests resumption of fall from 1.5096. More importantly, it’s now resuming the medium term down trend. Sustained trading below 1.4317 will confirm the breakout and pave the way to 100% projection of 1.5783 to 1.4580 from 1.5096 at 1.3839. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.4439 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

                      GBP/CAD will be a focus now too as it’s diving towards 1.6889 support. Firm break there will resume the fall from 1.7623, and the decline from 1.57784 too. 100% projection of 1.7884 to 1.6849 from 1.7623 at 1.6588 will be next target.

                      WTI oil soars on US strikes in Iran; 80 now the line between calm and 100+ chaos

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
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                        WTI crude surged at the start of the week as geopolitical tensions flared after US airstrikes hit Iranian nuclear targets over the weekend. The move marks a dramatic escalation in the long-simmering conflict between Iran and Israel, now drawing in direct US involvement. Investors are now awaiting Tehran’s next move after Iranian officials said “all options” remain on the table in response.

                        Attention is now centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows. Iranian lawmakers have approved a non-binding motion to shut down the strait, though the final decision lies with the National Security Council. Any disruption to shipments through Hormuz would have a profound impact on global supply chains and energy prices.

                        Technically, WTI crude’s surge from the 55.20 low is now approaching a key resistance at 81.01. Barring a broader escalation, the rally could stall here, especially with overbought momentum indicators flashing caution. A break below 73.69 would be an early sign of stabilization and may trigger profit-taking correction.

                        But if the conflict deepens and prices break decisively above 81.01, the rally could accelerate toward through 38.2% retracement of 131.82 (2022 high) to 55.20 at 84.46. Sustained break above 84.46 would mark a significant reversal of the long-term downtrend from the 2022 high and open the path to 95.50 or even to 61.8% retracement at 102.55.

                        With tensions high and the market highly headline-sensitive, holding below 80 will be key to preventing a return to 100+ oil—and renewed inflationary concerns worldwide.

                         

                        Canada’s jobs grow 7.4k, unemployment rate jumps to 6.9%

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          Canada’s labor market posted a modest gain of 7.4k jobs in April, slightly above expectations of 4.1k, following a sharp loss of -33k positions in March and a flat February. While the headline number suggests some stabilization, broader labor indicators point to underlying weakness.

                          Unemployment rate rose from 6.7% to 6.9%, above expectations, and is now back at its November 2024 level, the highest since January 2017 excluding the pandemic years.

                          The employment rate slipped another 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%, matching a recent low seen in October 2024.

                          Wage growth also showed signs of easing, with average hourly earnings increasing 3.4% yoy, down from 3.6% yoy in March. Meanwhile, total hours worked rose by 0.4% mom and 0.9% yoy.

                          Full Canada’s employment release here.

                          BoC to hold rates at 2.75%, maintain dovish bias

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
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                            BoC is widely expected to leave interest rate unchanged at 2.75% for the second consecutive meeting today.

                            While Q1 GDP surprised to the upside at 2.2% annualized, the growth was heavily front-loaded by export activity as US buyers rushed to stockpile Canadian goods ahead of impending tariffs. That one-off boost is unlikely to alter the central bank’s cautious stance in light of growing global and domestic uncertainties. Meanwhile, core inflation rose back to near the top of BoC’s 1-3% target range, offering a reasonable basis for a continued pause.

                            Overall, expectations are firmly anchored toward further easing later this year. A Reuters poll found that 75% (17 of 23) of economists anticipate at least two more cuts in 2025, with two of them forecasting as many as four.

                            Given the high degree of trade uncertainty, particularly around tariffs, BoC is likely to keep a flexible tone in its communication. While the rate is on hold today, policymakers are expected to leave the door open for adjustments ahead, depending on how the trade situation evolves.

                            In the currently markets, today’s BoC decision may not be the key driver for USD/CAD. Instead, market direction is still largely dictated by sentiment around US trade policy.

                            Technically, further decline is expected as long as 1.3860 resistance holds, to 61.8% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3603. There might be some support from 1.3603 to contain downside and bring a rebound, as a correction to the five wave decline from 1.4791 high. However, decisive break there could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3349 rather quickly.

                            Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 47.4, services rose to 53.6

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped from 48.9 to 47.4 in February, below expectation of 49.3. It’s also the worst reading in over two-and-a-half years. Manufacturing Output dropped sharply from 47.2 to 44.9. PMI services, on the other hand, rose from 52.3 to 53.6. PMI Composite was unchanged at 50.7.

                              Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

                              “The modest, stable growth signalled by the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI in February masked widely differing trends between the manufacturing and service sectors midway through the first quarter of the year.

                              “Service providers posted sharper rises in activity and new business as the latest wave of the COVID-19 pandemic faded, providing a boost to demand.

                              “The picture was much less positive in the manufacturing sector, however, where new orders and production dropped to the greatest extents in just over two-and-a-half years.”

                              Full release here.

                              Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 53.3, suggests 0.2% growth in Q1

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Eurozone PMI services was finalized at 53.3 in March, revised up from 52.7, up from February final at 52.8. PMI composite was finalized at 51.6, down from February’s 51.9. Among the member states, France PMI composite was finalized at 48.9, a 2-month low. Germany PMI composite was finalized at 51.4, a 69-month low. Italy PMI composite improved to 5.15, a 6-month high.

                                Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                “The final eurozone PMI for March confirms the sluggish end to the first quarter, with business growth ebbing to one of the most lethargic rates seen since 2014.

                                “Only at the turn of the year, when business was hit by headwinds such as widespread ‘yellow vest’ protests in France and an auto sector struggling with new emissions regulations, has growth been slower over the past four years. The rebound from these temporary headwinds has clearly been disappointing and is already losing momentum, led by a deepening downturn in manufacturing. The goods producing sector reports that global growth worries have intensified, meaning customers continue to pull back on spending.

                                “The service sector has managed to sustain a relatively resilient rate of growth but has also lost momentum in recent months. This should come as no surprise as history tells us that robust service sector growth usually depends on a healthy manufacturing economy.

                                “At current levels, the PMI remains consistent with GDP rising by 0.2% in the first quarter, but unless manufacturing pulls out of its downturn the overall pace of economic growth will likely weaken in the second quarter as the malaise spreads to the service sector. In this respect, with forward-looking indicators from the manufacturing sector suggesting goods production will fall further in the coming months, downside risk to the outlook have intensified.”

                                Full release here.

                                France PMI manufacturing finalized at 55.9 in Nov, tentative signs of stabilization

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  France PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 55.9 in November, up from October’s 53.6. That’s the first increase since May. Markit noted that output volumes were broadly unchanged during the month. Demand improved, but remained subdued amid supply-related constraints. Output price inflation reached new high.

                                  Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Tentative signs of stabilisation were seen in the French Manufacturing PMI during November, with the growth slowdown seen since post-pandemic growth peaked back in May finally coming to a halt. The headline PMI posted its first increase for six months as trends improved in output, new orders and employment.

                                  “That said, beyond this positive direction change, the latest data continued to show intense supply-related constraints impeding manufacturing production, denting order book volumes and adding further pressure on margins. As a result, output prices were raised to the greatest extent since this data were first published back in 2002. While demand conditions have slowed, anecdotal evidence has thus far suggested this to be a symptom on component shortages, causing firms to postpone and cancel orders until supplies improve. We’re not seeing much evidence that higher prices are a factor in causing demand to soften, which means elevated rates of inflation may not prove so transitory as many anticipate.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  German FM Scholz urged to complete EU banking union this year

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                                    ActionForex.com
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                                    German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz urged EU to make progress on banking union this year. He said in the Bundestag lower house of parliament that “we must take action so that we can act in a new crisis – not everything has been done.” Scholz also said Germany and France laid a foundation with an agreement in Meseberg in June. And so, “we can quickly take the last steps to make Europe stable and to equip ourselves for the next crisis”.

                                    He added that ‘have the task of completing a banking union and we should fulfil the most important steps this year.” Under the current EU plan, the Single Resolution Board will be given a clearer mandate to set the level of capital buffers that banks should hold against the risk of failure. However, another pillar of the union, a common bank deposit insurance scheme, is not agreed upon yet.

                                    Trump accuses China of currency manipulation

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                                      ActionForex.com
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                                      Trump accused China for currency manipulation today, and with the same tweet, he also urged Fed to “listen” He said “China dropped the price of their currency to an almost a historic low. It’s called ‘currency manipulation.’ Are you listening Federal Reserve? This is a major violation which will greatly weaken China over time!” But it’s unsure what “historic low” he referred to.

                                      On the other hand, China dismissed Trump’s claim that the country didn’t buy US agricultural products. A National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) was reported saying that such accusation was “groundless”. The official noted China bought 130,000 tonnes of soybeans, 120,000 tonnes of sorghum, 60,000 tonnes of wheat, 40,000 tonnes of pork and products, and 25,000 tonnes of cotton from the United States between July 19 and August 2.

                                      Also, the NDRC official also said China purchased 75,000 tonnes of hay, 5,700 tonnes of dairy products, 4,500 tonnes of processed fruits, and 400 tonnes of fresh fruits from the United States during the same period.

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                                      EU Barnier: There could be Brexit extension, but what for?

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                                        EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said today that the March 29 exit date could be extended. But that should be for a reason. He said “If it is asked, European leaders will say ‘What for?’ and the duration of this potential extension will be linked to ‘What for?'”.

                                        He added that a “technical” extension could last until European parliament election in May. And, longer than that, there will be issues regarding Britons voting in the European election.

                                        BIS: Policymakers need to set a solid foundation for long-term growth

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
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                                          The Bank for International Settlement said in its Annual Economic Report that “swift and forceful action from central banks and governments has limited the economic damage from the Covid-19 pandemic”. But in the coming year, “issues such as corporate insolvencies and capital and labour reallocation will come to the fore.”

                                          Agustín Carstens, General Manager, said: “The whole world entered this crisis suddenly and as one, but the exit is proving to be slower and staggered. While the recovery has been faster and stronger than anyone would have imagined a year ago, we are not out of the woods yet. Policymakers need to carefully manage the risks arising from this economic and policy divergence and set a solid foundation for long-term growth.”

                                          He added: “As we exit the pandemic, we see higher public debt, lower interest rates and larger central bank balance sheets. Normalising monetary and fiscal policy over the longer term will provide a necessary safety margin to cope with unexpected events such as the pandemic or future recessions. And securing a durable recovery will require addressing the more lasting consequences of the pandemic.”

                                          Full release here.

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