UK PMI Services was finalized at 13.4 in April, down from March’s 34.6. The data indicated a contraction in the service sector activity on an unprecendented scale since survey started in July 1996. PMI Composite was finalized at 13.8, down from March’s 36.0. That’s by far the lowest recorded since the series began in 1998.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “Historical comparisons of the PMI with GDP indicate that the April survey reading is consistent with the economy falling at a quarterly rate of approximately 7%, but we expect the actual decline in GDP could be even greater, in part because the PMI excludes the vast majority of the self-employed and the retail sector.

“While output, new work and employment indices all hit all-time lows in April, survey respondents indicated a tentative upturn in their business expectations amid hopes that a gradual re-opening of the economy can be achieved in the summer. However, service providers looking to re-establish business operations overwhelmingly commented that capacity would remain well below previous levels for an extended period and any timings remain highly uncertain.”

Full release here.

UK PMI services was finalized at 51.4 in October, sharply lower from September’s 56.1. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.1, down from 56.5. That’s also the lowest level for four months.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “October data indicates that the UK service sector was close to stalling even before the announcement of lockdown 2 in England… November’s lockdown in England and a worsening COVID-19 situation across the rest of Europe means that the UK economy seems on course for a double-dip recession this winter and a far more challenging path to recovery in 2021.”

Full release here.

UK PMI Services was finalized at 54.3 in January, up from December’s 53.4. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.9, up from prior month’s 52.1.

Tim Moore from S&P Global noted the service sector’s performance revival, with output growth at its fastest in eight months due to increased business and consumer spending. New orders have rebounded, driven by diminishing recession fears and more flexible financial conditions.

Inflationary pressures eased in January, despite demand surge, with input costs rising at one of the slowest rates in three years. This slowdown is attributed to reduced energy, fuel, and raw material costs. However, service providers still face elevated wage pressures, contributing to a continued, albeit slower, rise in prices charged.

Full UK PMI services release here.

UK PMI Manufacturing sector had a slight uptick in September, moving from 43.0 to 44.2, surpassing expectations set at 43.0. Services PMI disappointed, recording a drop from 49.5 to 47.2, underperforming against the forecasted 49.0, marking a 32-month low. Consequently, PMI Composite followed suit, declining from 48.6 to 46.8, also registering a 32-month low.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated, “The disappointing PMI survey results for September mean a recession is looking increasingly likely in the UK.”

The current PMI data aligns with a potential GDP contraction of over -0.4% on a quarterly basis. Williamson mentioned, “September’s downturn is the steepest since the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009 barring only the pandemic lockdown months.”

A significant point of apprehension in the inflation framework remains wage growth. However, with the survey indicating the most significant employment decline since 2009, wage negotiation leverage appears to be dwindling swiftly.

Williamson believes the unsettling indications of heightened recession risk coupled with diminishing inflationary pressures are likely to have “added to calls to halt rate hikes” by BoE.

Full UK PMI release here.