Fed’s Williams: Fed to stay data-dependent as outlook ahead is uncertain

    New York Fed President John Williams suggested that, should the economy evolve as anticipated, it would be prudent to “dial back the policy restraint gradually over time, starting this year.”

    However, he was quick to stress the inherent uncertainty in the economic outlook, underscoring the need for Fed to maintain a data-dependent approach.

    “The outlook ahead is uncertain, and we will need to remain data-dependent,” he said in a speech, adding “I will remain focused on the data, the economic outlook, and the risks as we evaluate the appropriate path for monetary policy to best achieve our goals.”

    Williams also touched upon inflation, projecting a continued but gradual decline towards Fed’s 2% target. He cautioned, however, that this trajectory might not be smooth, referencing “bumps along the way” evidenced by some recent inflation data.

    US to re-initiate trade talk with China before new tariffs, Aussie and DOW surge

      The WSJ reported that the US is proposing new round of trade talk with China. That could happen in the near future before Trump imposes the new round of 25% tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese goods. It’s reported that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent an invitation to Chinese officials, proposing a meeting in the next few weeks to discuss trade issues, citing unnamed sources.

      The proposal could be resulted from public hearing ended last week. Or, it could also be in response to outcries from American businesses.

      As we noted here, over 60 US industry groups formed a coalition “Americans for Free Trade” to launch a campaign against Trump’s tariffs and trade policies.

      The news boosts Australian and New Zealand Dollar sharply higher. Meanwhile, Dollar clearly suffers.

      Meanwhile, DOW is also surging around 170 pts , taking recent high at 26167.74.

      US crude oil inventories rose 3.1m barrels, WTI dives

        US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), rose 3.1m barrels in the week ending September 27. That’s notably above expectation of 2.0m barrels. At 422.6m barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

        WTI crude drops to as low as 52.47 so far as fall from 63.04 extends. Deeper decline is expected as long as 56.63 resistance holds, to 50.43 support next. However, that would be close to 61.8% retracement of 42.05 to 66.49 at 51.38, as well as 50 psychological level. For now, we’re not expecting a break there.

        ECB asks banks not to pay dividends till end of 2020

          ECB announced today to extend “the end of the period in which we recommend that banks should not pay dividends or buy back shares from October 2020 until the end of the year.”

          Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, said in a blog post: “The current macroeconomic shock is of unprecedented magnitude and it is still highly uncertain how it will develop in the future, including its eventual impact on the banking sector…. the economic outlook remains contingent on too many uncertain variables, including a possible strong resurgence of infections accompanied by more stringent containment measures.”

          “In the extraordinary circumstances created by the pandemic, all our supervisory measures and actions are and will continue to be aimed at ensuring that the banking sector can remain resilient and support the economic recovery with an adequate supply of credit.”

          Full post here.

          Canada GDP contracted -0.3% mom in May, to recover 0.7% in Jun

            Canada GDP contracted -0.3% mom in May, matched expectations. Total economic activity remained approximately -2% below prepandemic level in February 2020. Overall, 12 of 20 industrial sectors contracted, with services-producing down -0.2% and goods-producing down -0.4%. Preliminary information indices that GDP would grow 0.7% in June, and 0.6% in Q2.

            Full release here.

            Eurozone GDP contracted -12.1% in Q2, EU down -11.7%

              GDP contracted -12.1% in Eurozone in Q2, -11.7% qoq in EU. Both were sharpest declines since the series began in 1995. Annually, GDP contracted -15.0% yoy in Eurozone, -14.1% in EU, also worst on record. Employment in Eurozone dropped record -2.8% qoq, and -2.6% in EU.

              Also released, Eurozone trade surplus widened to EUR 17.1B in June, up from EUR 8.0B, but smaller than expectation of EUR 18.0B.

              France GDP rose 0.3%, matched expectations

                French GDP rose 0.3% qoq in Q4 2018, same pace as prior quarter and matched expectation. Looking at the details, household consumption expenditures decelerated (0.0% after +0.4%), likewise total gross fixed capital formation slowed down (GFCF: +0.2% after +1.0%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes decelerated: it contributed 0.1 points to GDP growth, after 0.5 points in the previous quarter.

                Imports bounced back in Q4 (+1.6% after −0.7%) and exports accelerated significantly (+2.4% after +0.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth again: +0.2 points, after +0.3 points in Q3. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.1 points after −0.5 points).

                Full release here.

                10-year yield breaks 2% key support, heading to 1.72 next

                  10-year yield open lower today and extends recent down trend to as low as 1.975 so far. With key support zone around 2.0 psychological level taken out rather decisively, further decline should now be seen to 100% projection of 3.248 to 2.356 from 2.614 at 1.722. This will remains the favored case as long as 2.174 resistance holds.

                  More importantly, from long term perspective, 55 month EMA is also firmly taken out. The three wave consolidation pattern from 1.394 could have completed at 3.248 after hitting decade long trend line resistance. If such interpretation is correct, we might seen 10-year yield falling back to 1.336 low.

                  Eurozone economic sentiment dropped, weakened in all five largest economies

                    Eurozone economic confidence (ESI) dropped “markedly” by 2.2 to 107.3 in December, below expectation of 108.9. Eurostats noted that “the deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from lower confidence in industry, services, construction and among consumers, while confidence improved slightly in retail trade.” Also, the ESI weakened in all five largest economies, including Spain (−3.0), France (−2.0), Germany (−1.9) and Italy (−1.4) and, marginally so, in the Netherlands (−0.3).

                    Industrial confidence dropped to 1.1, down from 3.4 and missed expectation of 3.1. Services confidence dropped to 12.0, down from 13.4, and missed expectation of 12.3. Consumer confidence was finalized at -6.2.

                    Also, Eurozone business climate dropped to 0.82, down from1.09 and missed expectation of 0.99.

                    ECB Villeroy: PEPP the preferred crisis instrument for its very flexibility

                      ECB Governor Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau hinted that the central bank might boost the EUR 750B Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program ahead. “It is in the name of our mandate that we will very probably need to go even further”, he said in a conference in Pari. “It is its very flexibility that should make the pandemic emergency purchase program our preferred marginal instrument for dealing with the consequences of the crisis.”

                      With the program, bone purchases could target countries with sharper rises in treasury yields. “Depending on market dynamics and liquidity conditions – and where these exhibit unwarranted gaps or there are risks of excessive volatility – certain national central banks must be able to purchase significantly more, and others significantly less, while ensuring the risks remain unshared,” Villeroy said.

                      Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.3%, revised up, core CPI at 1.1%

                        Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.3% yoy in June, revised up from 1.2%, up from May’s 1.2% yoy. Core CPI was finalized at 1.1% yoy, unrevised, up from May’s 0.8% yoy. EU 28 CPI was finalized at 1.6% yoy, stable compared to May.

                        The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (0.2%), Cyprus (0.3%), Denmark and Croatia (both 0.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (3.9%), Hungary (3.4%) and Latvia (3.1%). Compared with May, annual inflation fell in seventeen Member States, remained stable in one and rose in nine.

                        In June, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (0.73%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (0.30%), energy (0.17%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.07%).

                        Full release here.

                        Dovish Fed economic projections: No hike in 2019, lower GDP growth, higher unemployment rate

                          Fed’s new economic projections are rather dovish. In short, there will be no more rate hike in this year. And the current rate hike cycle could end with interest rate below longer run rate. GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are revised down. Unemployment rate for 2019, 2020, and 2021 are all revised up. Dollar dives sharply after the release.

                          Federal funds rates are projected to be at:

                          • 2.4% in 2019, revised down from 2.9%.
                          • 2.6% in 2020, revised down from 3.1%.
                          • 2.6% in 2021, revised down from 3.1%.

                          Median longer run rate is unchanged at 2.8%.

                          That is, there will be no rate hike this year. And probably just one hike in 2020 and it’s done. The current cycle could end up with interest rate below the longer run level.

                          GDP growth is projected to be at:

                          • 2.1% in 2019, revised down from 2.3%.
                          • 1.9% in 2020, revised down from 2.0%.
                          • 1.8% in 20201, unchanged.

                          Unemployment rate is projected to be at:

                          • 3.7% in 2019, revised up from 3.5%.
                          • 3.8% in 2020, revised up from 3.6%.
                          • 3.9% in 2021, revised up from 3.8%.

                          Core PCE inflation is projected to be at:

                          • 2.0% in 2019, unchanged.
                          • 2.0% in 2020, unchanged.
                          • 2.0% in 2021, unchanged.

                          Australia jobs dropped -594.3k, unemployment rate rose only to 6.2% as many people left work force

                            Australia employment dropped -594.3k to 12.4m in April, largest fall on record. That was slightly worse than expectation of -575.0k. Full-time jobs dropped -220.5k to 8.66m, Part times jobs dropped 373.8k to 3.76.

                            Unemployment rate rose 1.0% to 6.2%, highest since September 2015. That was much better than expectation of 8.3%, But it should be noted that firstly, participation rates dropped sharply by -2.4% to 63.5%. Secondly, monthly hours worked in all jobs dropped -163.9m hours to 1625.8m hours.

                            “The large drop in employment did not translate into a similar sized rise in the number of unemployed people because around 489,800 people left the labour force”, stated Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS. “This means there was a high number of people without a job who didn’t or couldn’t actively look for work or weren’t available for work”.

                            Full release here.

                            FOMC preview: Rate hike for sure, focus on new projections

                              Fed is widely expected to lift federal funds rate by 25bps to 2.00-2.25% today, without a doubt. The voting will be a point to note to seen how impatient the doves were. But it’s more likely to be unanimous than not at this stage. Also, there are expectations of a slight change in the language. That is, “the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative” could be changed to “somewhat accommodative” or even dropped. But this won’t trigger much market reactions, changed or not.

                               

                              The major focuses will be on the new economic projections. Firstly, 2021 figures will be released. Based on June’s projections, medium projected appropriate federal funds rate will be at 3.4% by the end of 2020. We’d be eager to know if Fed policy makers expect to stop there through 2021, or they would lean towards more tightening ahead. (Btw, at 3.4% which is above 2.9% projected longer run rate, that’s tightening. Now, it’s just accommodation removal, totally different stage.)

                              Secondly, while all the figures, inflation, growth, unemployment, policy path matter, we believe the key is on the 2.9% estimated longer run rate. From the communications of Fed officials, the general consensus is for Fed to raise interest rate to “neutral” and see how it goes from there. A raise in the estimated longer run rate will be tied to a perceived higher neutral rate. And that would be, Fed’s rate hike cycle would likely be prolonged further. To us, this is the single most important figure that moves markets.

                               

                              Here are some suggested readings on FOMC:

                              RBA Lowe: We have scope to wait and see

                                RBA Governor Philip Lowe told a parliamentary committee that it is “too early” to conclude that inflation is “sustainably in the target range”. He added, “in underlying terms, inflation has just reached the midpoint of the target band for the first time in over seven years”.

                                The board is “prepared to be patient” and “we have scope to wait and see how the data develop and how some of the uncertainties are resolved. Countries with higher inflation rates have less scope here.”

                                Full statement here.

                                Canadian CPI cools to 2.8% yoy in Feb, below expectations

                                  Canada’s CPI decelerated in February, registering an increase of 2.8% yoy, which fell short of anticipated 3.1% yoy. This slowdown from January’s 2.9% yoy offers a glimmer of relief as inflationary pressures show signs of easing. When gasoline prices are excluded, CPI was down from 3.2% yoy to 2.9% yoy. Gasoline prices themselves saw a modest uptick of 0.8% yoy, a notable recovery from -4.0% yoy decrease observed in the previous month.

                                  The more specific measures of inflation, which provide a clearer view of underlying trends, also reflected a cooling trend. CPI median, a measure that provides a middle ground by excluding extreme fluctuations, slowed from 3.3% yoy to 3.1% yoy, coming in below the expected 3.3%. Similarly, CPI trimmed, which removes the most volatile components, decreased from 3.4% yoy to 3.2% yoy. Lastly, CPI common, often regarded as a core measure that tracks common price changes across categories, decelerated from 3.4% yoy to 3.1% yoy, again missing the forecast of 3.4%.

                                  Full Canada CPI release here.

                                  German-Italian yield spread breaks 330 after EU’s warning letter to Italy

                                    German-Italian yield spread widens further today after EU finally confronted Italy on its budget. A letter was passed to Italian Economy Minister Givoanni Tria, detailing why the budget is an “obvious significant deviation” of the recommendations adopted by the European Council under the 2019 Stability and Growth Pact. Italy will now have until October 22 to respond to the letter. But it’s unlikely for the populist coalition to back down.

                                    At the time of writing, Italian 10 year yield is up 0.075 at 3.753.

                                    On the other hand, German 10 year yield is down -0.016 at 0.405. That is, German-Italian yield spread is now at 334!.

                                    Euro is just mixed for today, even though it’s the second weakest for the week after Sterling.

                                    Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose 2.7 pts to 90.4 in Dec

                                      Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose 2.7 pts to 90.4 in December. Employment Expectation Indicator rose 1.4 pts to 88.3. Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI increased significantly in Italy (+6.8), Spain (+3.3) and, to a lesser extent, in the Netherlands (+2.5) and France (+2.1), while it remained broadly unchanged in Germany (+0.1).

                                      Looking at some details, industrial confidence rose from -10.1 to -7.2. Services confidence dropped from -17.1 to -17.4. Consumer confidence rose from -17.6 to -13.9. Retail trade confidence rose from -12.7 to -13.1. Construction confidence dropped from -9.3 to -7.9.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Yen drops further as BoJ Kuroda dispels speculation of early stimulus exit

                                        Yen apparently suffers another round of selling after BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s post meeting press conference. A key to note is that under the strengthened framework, BoJ will now allow yields to move between -0.1% and +0.1%. And Kuroda emphasized that “we do not intend this change to lead to a rise in interest rate levels.” He added that the 0.2% range will “improve functions in the government bond market, which had been deteriorating” and “help make our easy-policy more sustainable”.

                                        “On forward guidance, Kuroda said it’s for strengthening the “commitment to achieve our 2 percent inflation target”. And, “we’ve adopted this to ensure market trust in our policy as we will be maintaining our massive stimulus longer than initially expected.” Kuroda pointed to “some speculation” that BoJ will seek an “early exit”. And he hoped this can “dispel such speculation”.

                                        He also admitted that it takes “longer than expected” for inflation to pick up. Hence, “achievement of our target will be beyond our (three-year) forecast timeframe”. And he also emphasized that “Under our yield curve control (YCC), real interest rates will fall even if nominal rates are steady as long as inflation expectations heighten.” But there is no need for additional easing for now.

                                        10 year JGB yield drops to as low as 0.054, after hitting 0.115 earlier today.

                                        RBA to stand pat and lower GDP growth forecast this week

                                          RBA is going to announce rate decision again tomorrow. And, it’s widely expected the it would keep the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%, and maintain a neutral stance. The message has been delivered repeatedly, while the next move is a hike, there is no pressing need to act in the near term.

                                          The more interest part could be the new economic forecasts. Back in February, RBA projected GDP to grow 3.25% in both 2018 and 2019. And, they were above the government’s forecasts released back in December. The government projected growth to be at 3.0% in fiscal 2018/19 and fiscal 2019/20. There are some expectations for RBA to lower 2018 growth forecast this week, while the government may raise it as it delivers the May Budget.

                                          Also, RBA projected underlying inflation (in February) to hit 1.75% in 2018 and 2.00% in 2019. But there is sofar no sign of any up trend in inflation yet. It’s more likely for RBA to keep inflation projections unchanged.