Sat, Oct 19, 2019 @ 04:28 GMT

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s decline from 153.84 extended last week after recovering to 152.71. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 148.37 support first. Decline from 153.84 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 156.59. Break of 148.37 will pave the way to 144.97 and below. On the upside, break of 152.71 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 156.59 are viewed as a corrective pattern. For now, we’d expect at least one more fall for 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 before the consolidation completed. Though, firm break of 156.59 will resume whole up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 at 159.11 next.

In the longer term picture, current development suggests that rise from 122.36 (2016 low) is not completed yet. Such rally could extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 at 167.78 before completion. This will now be the preferred case as long as 139.29 support holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.12; (P) 147.76; (R1) 148.65; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 149.70 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone next. However, break of 145.67 will suggest that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.71; (P) 148.93; (R1) 149.59; More….

Despite dropping sharply from 150.29, GBP/USD is holding above 147.03 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. While another rise cannot be ruled out, we maintain the view that rebound from 144.97 is a corrective move. Therefore, strong resistance is expected from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.03 will bring retest of 144.97 low first. Break will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 150.92 will pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.71; (P) 146.41; (R1) 147.75; More…

A temporary low is in place at 144.97 as GBP/JPY recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. But still, outlook remains bearish with 150.92 resistance intact. Deeper decline is expected. Break of 144.97 will extend the fall from 156.69 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. We’ll look for bottoming signal there. But firm break will target 139.29 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.95; (P) 139.20; (R1) 141.03; More…

Outlook is GBP/JPY remains unchanged and focus stays on 139.88 resistance. Sustained trading above 139.88 will dampen our bearish view and bring stronger rise to 143.93 resistance next. Nevertheless, reversal from current level, followed by 137.35 support will confirm completion of rebound from 131.51. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective medium term rise from 122.36 (2016 low) has completed at 156.69 already. That came after failing to break through 55 month EMA. Fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high). Below 131.51 will target 122.36 low first. And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 139.88 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.88 will mix up the outlook and we’ll reassess on the final structure of the rebound from 131.51.

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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s choppy rebound from extended to 151.21 last week but breached 150.92 resistance briefly. But it couldn’t sustain above 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) yet. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. We’d still expect strong resistance from 150.78/92 to limit upside. Break of 148.37 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 144.97 first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal has been building up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds. However, sustained trading above 150.92 will argue that the larger rise from 122.36 might still be in progress for another high above 156.59.

.In the longer term picture, rejection from 55 month EEMA (now at 154.18) argues that medium term rebound from 122.36 might be completed. And, the corrective structure also carries some bearish implication today. Sustained break of 135.58 key support will likely bring retest of 122.36 low, with prospect of resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high).

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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s sharp fall last week indicates that corrective rise from 144.97 has completed at 153.84 already. Decline from 153.84 should the third leg of the pattern fro 156.69. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for deeper fall to 148.30 support. Break till bring retest of 144.97 low. On the upside, above 151.68 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term risk will now stay on the downside as long as 153.84 holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 156.59 are viewed as a corrective pattern. For now, we’d expect at least one more fall for 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 before the consolidation completed. Though, firm break of 156.59 will resume whole up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 at 159.11 next.

In the longer term picture, current development suggests that rise from 122.36 (2016 low) is not completed yet. Such rally could extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 at 167.78 before completion. This will now be the preferred case as long as 139.29 support holds.

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GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s corrective recovery from 126.54 extended higher last week. Further rise could be seen this week with 128.75 minor support intact. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 148.87 to 126.54 at 135.07 to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 128.75 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 126.54.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains clearly bearish with GBP/JPY staying well below 55 week and 55 month EMA. Medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 122.36 (2016 low). We’d be cautious on bottoming there. But break of 135.66 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Sustained break of 122.36 will target next key level at 116.83 (2011 low).

In the longer term picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. Hence, strong support could be seen at 122.36 to bring rebound before the pattern completes. However, sustained break will raise the chance of resuming larger down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Next downside target will be 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.36 from 156.59 at 111.16.

   

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.42; (P) 148.19; (R1) 148.72; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. While another rise cannot be ruled out, we maintain the view that rebound from 144.97 is a corrective move. Therefore, strong resistance is expected from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.03 will bring retest of 144.97 low first. Break will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 150.92 will pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.47; (P) 140.07; (R1) 140.60; More…

A temporary low is in place at 139.54 with today’s recovery. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 143.72 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 139.54 will resume the decline from 148.87 to retest 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY was rejected by 149.98 key resistance. And medium term fall from 156.59 is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). On the other hand, decisive break of 149.98 should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Further rally would be seen back to 156.59 resistance and above.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.96; (P) 140.41; (R1) 141.18; More…

A temporary low should be in place at 139.59 with the current recovery, ahead of 139.29/47 key support zone. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral for consolidation first. Stronger recovery could be seen through 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 141.46). But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 143.93 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 139.29/47 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) could still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.92; (P) 148.35; (R1) 148.89; More…

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook as consolidation from 149.70 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But outlook will stay remain bullish as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone next. However, break of 145.67 will suggest that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.91; (P) 150.57; (R1) 151.25; More…

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 144.97 is trying to resume today but focus stays on 150.92 resistance. Firm break there will extend the rise to 61.8% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 152.15 and above. The price actions from 144.97 are still corrective looking. Hence, we’ll look for sign of loss of upside momentum as it approaches 156.59 high. However, break of 148.37 minor support should confirm rejection from 150.92 resistance. In that case, deeper fall should be seen through 144.97 to resume the decline from 156.59.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal has been building up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds. However, sustained trading above 150.92 will argue that the larger rise from 122.36 might still be in progress for another high above 156.59.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.08; (P) 146.86; (R1) 147.47; More…

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 144.97. Intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited below 150.92 resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 144.97 will extend the fall from 156.69 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next. We’ll look for bottoming signal there. But firm break will target 139.29 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.92; (P) 149.43; (R1) 150.38; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. Choppy rise from 144.97 is seen as a corrective move. We’d expect strong resistance from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.65 minor support will bring retest of 144.97 low first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.05; (P) 149.44; (R1) 150.12; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY mildly on the upside as recovery from 147.04 could extend higher. But still, such choppy rise is seen as a correction. Hence, upside should be limited below 150.60 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 148.16 will likely resume the decline from 153.84 through 147.04 to 144.97 low. Break there will resume the fall from 156.59 and target 100% projection of 156.59 to 144.97 from 153.84 at 142.22 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.53; (P) 149.31; (R1) 150.76; More…

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 144.97 resumed by taking out 150.29. But still outlook is unchanged. Such rebound is seen as a correction. And strong resistance is expected from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.65 minor support will bring retest of 144.97 low first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.39; (P) 150.94; (R1) 151.39; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 152.15 and above. or now, price actions from 144.97 are still seen as corrective looking. Hence, we’ll look for sign of loss of upside momentum as it approaches 156.59 high. On the downside, below 150.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 148.37 is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the outlook is turning mixed again. On the one hand, the cross was rejected by 55 month EMA (now at 154.20) after breaching it briefing. On the other hand, there was no sustainable selling pushing it through 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51. The most likely scenario is that GBP/JPY is turning into a sideway pattern between 143.51 and 156.59. And more range trading would now be seen before a breakout, possibly on the upside.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.93; (P) 141.41; (R1) 142.20; More…

GBP/JPY’s breach of 142.22 suggests resumption of rebound from 131.51. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 143.93 resistance first. Break will pave the way to 149.48 resistance next. On the downside, below 140.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But further rally is expected as long as 137.35 minor support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective medium term rise from 122.36 (2016 low) has completed at 156.69 (2018 high) already. That came after failing to break through 55 month EMA. No change in this view. Strong rebound from 131.51 argues that fall from 156.59 is just the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36. Break of 149.38 resistance will confirm the third leg has started to 159.69, and possibly above. Nevertheless, break of 131.51 will pave the way to retest 122.26 low.

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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.10; (P) 147.83; (R1) 148.33; More…

Despite losing upside momentum, further is still in favor in GBP/JPY with 146.24 minor support intact. Current rally should target 149.50 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm our bullish view that decline from 156.59 has completed at 139.88. On the downside, below 146.24 minor support will bring deeper pull back. But outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 142.58 support holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, the decline from 156.69 is seen as corrective move. That is, rise from 122.36 (2016 low), is still expected to extend higher through 156.69. However, sustained break of 139.29/47 should confirm medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

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