Sun, May 09, 2021 @ 17:12 GMT
Home Contributors Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

No Change From Norges Bank Today

Market movers today We do not expect any changes to Norges Bank's policy rate today, as it will be one of its smaller interim meetings (for more details see the Nordic Macro and Markets section). Neither should the Bank of England meeting bring any new policy signals, but keep...

NFP Preview: 1M Jobs Possible, But Wage Growth Still Stubbornly Straggles

Overview As we noted earlier this week, hopes are high heading into this week’s NFP Report, with potential to see over 1,000,000 net new jobs for the first time in eight months as the country gradually opens up amidst widespread vaccine distribution. In addition to the strong headline jobs reading,...

What Do Current PMIs Say About The Global Economy?

The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) monthly data are compiled by surveys of senior executives at private sector companies in over 40 different countries (via marketeconomics.com). The main headline surveys include a Manufacturing PMI, a Services PMI, and a Composite PMI (although some countries only release Manufacturing PMI)....

British Pound Steady, BoE Meeting Next

After starting the week with strong gains, the British pound has settled down. In the North American session, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3900, up 0.09% on the day. The British economy continues to perform well, as the recovery is gaining traction. On Tuesday, Manufacturing PMI in April came in at...

April Nonfarm Payrolls to Glide Higher, but Dollar has Other Matters to Care

US Nonfarm payrolls will probably put on another spectacular show this Friday at 12:30 GMT, mirroring a blossoming economic recovery as the ultra-easy monetary and fiscal policies combined with the rapidly growing vaccination rollout are brightening up the landscape out of the health crisis. This euphoria, however, is already well priced in, and the jobs data...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets (European) equity markets this morning quite easily found their composure after yesterday’s sudden, tech-driven setback. Still, that move  contained a warning that the debate on potential consequences of rising inflation might become a growing source of uncertainty/rising market volatility. European stocks currently are rebounding between 1.0% and 1.5%+. US...

US Open: Stocks Rebound on Recovery Optimism, Oil Surges

US stocks look set to rebound after Janet Yellen backtracks her interest rate hike hint. ADP rises the most since September. Oil approaches $70. US futures Dow futures +0.2% at 34215 S&P futures +0.3% at 4180 Nasdaq futures +0.5% at 13621 In Europe FTSE +1.47% at 7010 Dax +1.5% at 15086 ...

NZ Dollar Rebounds on Sharp Job Data

NZD/USD has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7196, down 88% on the day. New Zealand employment data outperforms The New Zealand dollar continues to show significant volatility this week. NZD/USD fell by 0.76% on Tuesday but has recovered these losses in the Wednesday...

Oil Rally Continues, Gold Dips On Yellen

Oil surges as easing lockdowns boost demand Oil is on fire. After gains of more than 2% in the previous week, the black stuff has already risen over 4% so far this week. A record fall in US crude inventories and growing optimism that the economic reopening in the US...

Stocks Bounce Back After Tech Rout

Growth stocks lead on re-opening optimism Rate hike concerns subside for now Inflationary pressures building US data coming up: ADP, ISM services PMI & crude inventories After a sharp sell-off yesterday, stock markets have bounced back. Actually, amidst the tech sell-off, there was late bounce in value stocks in...

USD Gains On Possibility Of Higher Rates

The USD gained against a number of its counterparts yesterday as investors mulled the possibility of higher US interest rates. It should be noted that the situation was also sparked by US Treasury Janet Yellen which stated that higher interest rates may be required for preventing the US economy...

Oil Rally Continues, Gold Retreats On Yellen

Oil markets gush higher If equity markets were showing Yellen-induced rate nerves, oil markets were not. Both Brent crude and WTI rallied impressively for the second day in a row. Although oil rallied on a much weaker US dollar on Monday, it also rallied strongly even as the US dollar...

The US Dollar Gets A Yellen Boost

Yellen hints at higher interest rates The Yellen rate-rise comments propelled the US dollar higher in double-quick time overnight, and even a winding back of the remarks later did not dent the greenback rally. The dollar index rose 0.35% to 91.28, although short-term profit-taking has pushed it back to 91.18...

More Than Words…

Yellen comments on interest rates send Nasdaq tumbling Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve Chairperson) Janet Yellen perhaps wished she had used less extreme words last night. Ms Yellen stated that interest rates may have to rise to prevent the economy from overheating. However, she couched that by saying the...

Asia Equities Mixed After US Tech-Rout

Yellen remarks spook Wall Street US Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve Chairperson) Janet Yellen likely wants to take a mulligan after her comments last night about interest rates. Ms Yellen stated that interest rates may have to rise to prevent the economy from overheating. However, she couched that by...

Wall Street Trembles As Yellen Channels Her Inner Fed Chair

US Treasury Secretary Yellen talks about rate hikes, tech stocks suffer But turmoil doesn’t spill over into FX, dollar gets only a minor boost ISM non-manufacturing survey and ADP jobs report coming up Yellen sparks tech selloff Market participants just got a small preview of what could happen when interest...

The U.S. Stock Market Declined On Tuesday Due The Announcement Of A Possible Interest Rate Change

On Tuesday, Janet Yellen, the newly elected Treasury Secretary and former Fed chief, unexpectedly announced about the possible interest rate hike in order to avoid the overheating of the economy. Taking into account the strategy of many investors "Sell in May and go away", the major U.S. indices reacted...

Thoughts Of A Fed Policy Turnaround Scared Markets

Former Fed chief and current US Treasurer Yellen sparked a violent sell-off in equity markets, noting that an interest rate hike may be needed to prevent the economy from overheating as Biden's stimulus plan came into play. A few hours later, Yellen clarified that she can't push the independent Fed...

The US Dollar Wins Amongst FX Majors

Markets Don't be blinded by market talks that US Treasury Secretary Yellen triggered yesterday's risk sell-off. Most of the intraday harm had already been done ahead of her comment that “it may be that interest rates have to rise somewhat to make sure our economy doesn't overheat”. She later stressed...

Oops, Did Janet Say Higher Rates?

Oops, the words just slipped from Janet Yellen’s mouth that the interest rates may have to rise ‘somewhat’ to prevent the economy from overheating, as inflation is about to become a serious topic shortly given that the commodity prices are soaring to the highest levels in a decade, the...

US Dollar Cools After Yellen’s Higher Rates Statement

US stocks wavered in the regular session and futures market as the market reacted to comments by Janet Yellen on interest rates. In an interview, she said that rates needed to start rising gradually to prevent the economy from overheating. She later walked back those comments and said that...

Yellen Backtracks On Fed Rate Comments

Market movers today ECB Chief Economist Lane will speak on the current status of the ECB's monetary policy strategy review. Fed's Evans, Rosengren and Mester will also be out speaking during the afternoon. In the US, the ADP employment report will give some indications ahead of non-farm payrolls released...

European Open: Indices Off To A Bad Start In May

It was a rough day for equity bulls yesterday, with several indices breaking key support levels amidst their worst level in weeks. Will today’s trade continue this trend? Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 44 points (0.62%) and currently trades at 7,111.90 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen...

NZD Rises After Jobs Data

General trend Energy stocks move higher after overnight rise in oil prices. S&P ASX 200 has gained after the flat open . Hang Seng is lower after earlier paring decline . Nasdaq FUTs erased gain. Hon Hai rises after issuing April sales. Markets in Japan, Shanghai and South Korea...

Scottish Elections & GBP

Voters in Scotland will head to the polls on Thursday for the Scottish Parliamentary elections. This could mark the start of a renewed push towards Scottish independence. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Pound will see a strong reaction. Here’s why. All eyes will be on the performance of...

Record Trade Deficits, Markets on Edge, Crude Higher, Gold Steady Despite Strong Dollar

Investors are a little unsure on how to navigate the next couple of quarters of roaring US growth that is unlikely to be reciprocated by the rest of the world. Today’s massive record setting trade deficit will likely only get worse as the US economy heats up and the...

Swiss Franc Range Trading, CPI Next

The Swiss franc has posted slight gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9126, up 0.18%. SECO Consumer Climate improves Swiss consumer confidence improved to -7 in the April report, up from -15 points beforehand. This was the best reading since May 2020, and importantly, the...

Bank of England: Taper Time?

The BoE will publish its latest rate decision at 11:00 GMT Thursday alongside updated economic forecasts, which Governor Bailey will present during his press conference. The British economy is doing much better and there's speculation the Bank might signal a slowdown of its asset purchases. That could propel the...

Canada’s Trade Balance Returns to Deficit Territory in March on Surging Imports  

Canada recorded a trade deficit of $1.1 billion in March, following a surplus of $1.4 billion in February. Exports were up a modest 0.3% on the month, whereas imports surged by 5.5%. The picture was more discouraging after accounting for price effects, with export volumes down 0.3% and...

U.S. Registers Highest Monthly Goods & Services Deficit on Record

The U.S. trade deficit rose to $74.4 billion in March from $70.5 billion in March. Total exports (goods and services) increased by 6.6% (-2.4% in February), while imports went up by 6.3% (-0.7% in February). Goods exports increased by 8.9% (-3.4% in February). Gains were across the board,...