Wed, Dec 07, 2022 @ 01:11 GMT

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD rise from 1.2781 extended again last week but upside momentum remained unconvincing. Hence, while further rally might be seen this week, we stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.3385 to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3187 support will argue that rise from 1.2781 has completed. And intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3134) and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 1.3385 will confirm medium term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2637; (P) 1.2670; (R1) 1.2724; More….

USD/CAD’s strong rebound and suggests that consolidation from 1.2916 could have completed with three waves down to 1.2623. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2916 resistance first. Break there will resume the rally from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next. In any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2598 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2822; (P) 1.2847; (R1) 1.2890; More….

USD/CAD’s rise is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.2916 high. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole rally from 1.2061. In that case, USD/CAD should target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next. On the downside, though, below 1.2804 will argue that consolidation from 1.2916 is extending with another falling leg. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2672 support. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.2598 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3275; (P) 1.3311; (R1) 1.3337; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.2994 short term bottom is in progress. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2994 at 1.3633. At this point, we’re viewing the rebound as a corrective move. Hence, we’d look for topping sign around there. Meanwhile, on the downside, break of 1.3137 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, though, break of 1.3715 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2593; (P) 1.2646; (R1) 1.2691; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Rebound from 1.2446 could still extend with another rise through 1.2742. But overall, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2880 resistance holds. Below 1.2586 will turn bias to the downside and bring retest of 1.2466 low first. However, sustained break of 1.2880 will argue that fall from 1.3389 has completed and bring stronger rise to 1.2994 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3899; (P) 1.4036; (R1) 1.4119; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 1.4667 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 1.4265 resistance will indicate completion of the correction. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 1.3762 will bring deeper fall to 1.3664 key support next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3568; (P) 1.3614; (R1) 1.3665; More

USD/CAD continues to lose upside momentum in as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias on the upside with 1.3566 minor support intact. Current rally should target 1.3685 fibonacci level next. Break there will target 1.3793 key medium term resistance. On the downside, below 1.3566 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.3322 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. At this point, the structure is not clearly impulsive yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping between 1.3685/3793. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2991) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3230; (P) 1.3280; (R1) 1.3329; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. At this point, we’re favoring the case that decline from 1.3664 has completed with three waves down to 1.3068 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of medium term channel support. Hence, rise will stay on the upside as long as 1.3068 holds. Break of 1.3375 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 1.3664 high.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3086) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD’s decline accelerated to as low as 1.3391 last week, without sign of bottoming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.4667 to 1.3855 from 1.4048 at 1.3236 next. On the upside, break of 1.3572 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery first.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.3664 resistance turned support, as well as the 55 week EMA (now at 1.3495), suggests that whole rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) has completed at 1.4667 (after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3570; (P) 1.3579; (R1) 1.3594; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.3490 support holds, further rally remains in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3715 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.3315 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831. On the downside, however, break of 1.3490 will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3315 low.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3516; (P) 1.3601; (R1) 1.3655; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with the retreat from 1.3868. On the downside, break of 1.3315 is now needed to confirm resumption of fall from 1.4667. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the upside in case of retreat. On the upside, break of 1.3686 will extend the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.3315 at 1.3831.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3855 support turned resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3855 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3664 resumed and accelerated to as low as 1.3068 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. But we’d start to be cautious on bottoming as it approaches channel support (now at 1.3049). On the upside break of 1.3165 will turn bias to the upside for rebounding towards 1.3375 resistance. However, sustained break of the channel support will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.3664 to 1.3180 from 1.3375 at 1.2891.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3049) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2621; (P) 1.2656; (R1) 1.2682; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for 1.2588 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2588 from 1.2880 at 1.2385. On the upside, though, break of 1.2762 will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2588 with another rise.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3195; (P) 1.3233; (R1) 1.3293; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.3327 will resume the rise form 1.3042 and target 1.3382 key structural resistance next. on the downside, through, break of 1.3158 will extend the fall from 1.3327 to retest 1.3042 low.

In the bigger picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.364 at 1.3052 remains intact. Medium term rise from 1.2061 low is in favor to resume sooner or later. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will confirm and target 1.4689 high. However, sustained break of 1.3052 will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3147; (P) 1.3165; (R1) 1.3181; More

USD/CAD’s rebound lost momentum ahead of 55 day EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral first. For now, further rebound is mildly in favor with 1.3116 minor support intact. Break of 1.3199 will target 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.3116 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3016 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2808; (P) 1.2834; (R1) 1.2857; More….

USD/CAD’s rise resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally from 1.2526 should target a test on 1.3124 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.1.2811 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But for now, further rise will be expected as long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2719) holds.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD’s rally from 1.2951 resumed last week and surged to as high as 1.3464. Strong break of 1.3327 resistance should confirm completion of triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3664 at 1.2951. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.2951 to 1.3329 from 1.3202 at 1.3436 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.3580 next. On the downside, below 1.3374 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 1.3202 support to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3664 (2018 high) are seen as a corrective move that has likely completed. Rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might be ready to resume. Decisive break 1.3664 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.3941 next. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3202 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, outlook remains unchanged that price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are forming a corrective pattern. As long as 1.2061 support holds. Up trend from 0.9406 (2011 low) is in favor to resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3965; (P) 1.3987; (R1) 1.4004; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first. Corrective pattern from 1.4667 might extend but downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.4140 resistance will indicate completion of the correction. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. However, sustained break of 1.3762 will bring deeper fall to 1.3664 key support next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re still seeing rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) as resuming up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 (2016 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3089; (P) 1.3146; (R1) 1.3188; More….

USD/CAD’s break of 1.3099 suggests resumption of fall from 1.3418. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.2994 low. Decisive break there will resume the larger fall from 1.4667. On the upside, though, break of 1.3259 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2994 with another rising leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3418 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test on 1.2061 (2017 low). But we’d expect loss of downside momentum as it approaches this key support. On the upside, firm break of 1.3715 resistance will argue that this falling leg has completed and turn focus back to 1.4667/89 resistance zone.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2826; (P) 1.2910; (R1) 1.2959; More….

A temporary top is in place at 1.3000 in USD/CAD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Nonetheless, outlook stays mildly bullish as long as 1.2757 resistance turned support holds. Another rise is still in favor. Above 1.3000 will extend the rise from 1.2246 to t 1.3065 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.2757 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.2450 support.

In the bigger picture, strong break of 1.2919 resistance adds much credence to the bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4589 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.