Sun, Nov 27, 2022 @ 16:35 GMT

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2841; (P) 1.2878; (R1) 1.2915; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.2401 should target 1.3022 fibonacci level next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. In any case, outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.2717 support intact, in case of another retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3256; (P) 1.3323; (R1) 1.3368; More

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.3664 extends to as low as 1.3303 so far, and broke mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3664 at 1.3327, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3324). Intraday bias stays on the downside and further fall would now be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.3118. Break there will put key channel support (now at 1.2993) into focus. On the upside, above 1.3369 minor resistance will turn intraday neutral first. But even in case of recovery, risk will now stay on the downside as long as 1.3664 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) might continue further. But the structure of such rise is not clearly impulsive so far. Hence, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2993) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3418; (P) 1.3466; (R1) 1.3512; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment as the consolidation from 1.3534 continues. Deeper retreat could be seen back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.3391). But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3333 and bring another rally. Above 1.3534 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3598 high next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg, started from 1.2460 is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2531; (P) 1.2557; (R1) 1.2603; More

USD/CAD’s break of 1.2605 resistance indicates that pull back from 1.2805 has completed at 1.2421. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 1.2805 resistance. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.2005 for 1.3022 fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 1.2488 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2421 support and below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3103; (P) 1.3124; (R1) 1.3147; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation continues in range of 1.3048/3170. On the upside, break of 1.3170 target 1.3225 key near term resistance. Break will confirm completion of choppy fall from 1.3385 and target a retest on this high. Though, break of 1.3048 will turn focus to 1.2969 support. Firm break there will indicate completion of whole rebound from 1.2781. In that case, whole fall from 1.3385 might extend through 1.2781 support before completion.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2664; (P) 1.2725; (R1) 1.2757; More….

USD/CAD’s pull back from 1.2916 is still in progress and could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 1.2598 resistance turned support and bring rebound. Above 1.2836 will target 1.2916 first. Further break of 1.2916 will resume whole rally from 1.2061 to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4006; (P) 1.4051; (R1) 1.4093; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 1.4667 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 1.4265 resistance will indicate completion of the correction. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3277; (P) 1.3299; (R1) 1.3337; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside for the moment. As noted before, correction from 1.3534 is likely finished with three waves down to 1.3222. Further rise should be seen to 1.3455 next. Break there will confirm this bullish case and send USD/CAD to 1.3598 resistance. In that case, whole rise from 1.2460 is likely resuming too. On the downside, below 1.3261 minor support will bring another fall. But we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 1.2968 to 1.3534 at 1.3184 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg from 1.2460 is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. However, break of 1.2968 will argue that the third leg has already started and should at least bring a retest of 1.2460 low. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2661; (P) 1.2722; (R1) 1.2753; More….

USD/CAD’s break of 1.2798 resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 1.2588, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2957/94 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.2684 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.2588 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2846; (P) 1.2883; (R1) 1.2916; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation continues. As long as 1.2598 resistance turned support holds, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, firm break of 1.2916 will resume the rise from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2885). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We’ll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3175; (P) 1.3234; (R1) 1.3283; More….

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.3177 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. On the upside, break of 1.3345 will extend the rebound from 1.3016 to 1.3564/3664 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.3177 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3016 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052). Decisive break there will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullish. But sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3988; (P) 1.4093; (R1) 1.4185; More….

USD/CAD’s breach of 1.4005 minor support dampens our bullish view. Instead, the development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.4667 is still extending. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3855 support and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.4265 will revive the case that correction from 1.4667 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4667 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 is likely resuming whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Decisive break of 1.4689 will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target is 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.3664 from 1.2951 at 1.5545. Rejection by 1.4689 will bring some consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3664 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2329; (P) 1.2360; (R1) 1.2398; More

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2286 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2497 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2286 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to 161.8% projection of 1.2947 to 1.2492 from 1.2894 at 1.2158 next.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3003; (P) 1.3050; (R1) 1.3073; More….

USD/CAD rebounds notably today but stays below 1.3143 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.3143 intact, further decline is mildly in favor. Sustained trading below 1.3052/68 cluster support should confirm medium term reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1.2781 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3143 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the case of bearish reversal continues to build up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD’s down trend extended to as low as 1.2706 last week. But a temporary low was formed after hitting 100% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2711. Initial bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2928 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, firm break of 1.2706 will target 161.8% projection at 1.2426.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2539; (P) 1.2585; (R1) 1.2623; More

No change in USD/CAD’s outlook as fall from 1.2891 is in progress. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.2947, and should target 1.2492 support and possibly below. But overall, with 1.2421 support intact, rise from 1.2005 should still be in progress for another rise through 1.2947 at a later stage. Break of 1.2773 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3390; (P) 1.3420; (R1) 1.3442; More….

USD/CAD’s sharp fall and break of 1.3373 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.3263 has completed with three waves up to 1.3455. The corrective structure in turns indicates that decline from 1.3534 is resuming. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.3263 support and below. Fall from 1.3534 is still viewed as a correction for the moment. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 1.3184 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.2968 to 1.3534 at 1.3184, 100% projection of 1.3534 to 1.3263 from 1.3455 at 1.3814 too) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3455 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3534 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg from 1.2460 is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We’d look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 will argue that the third leg has already started and should at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2527; (P) 1.2562; (R1) 1.2585; More….

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.2777 resumed after brief recovery. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.2412 low. Break there will resume the larger decline and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2690 will extend the correction from 1.2412 with another rise. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we’d look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3385; (P) 1.3414; (R1) 1.3433; More

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation from 1.3521 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Such consolidation could extend with deeper fall. But downside should be contained above 1.3274 support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. However, decisive break of 1.3274 support will indicate completion of rise from 1.3068 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3296). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3110; (P) 1.3141; (R1) 1.3158; More….

Further rise is expected in USD/CAD as long as 1.3104 minor support holds. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, the corrective fall from 1.3664 might be finished as a triangle at 1.2951. Decisive break of 1.3327 will confirm this bullish case However, break of 1.3104 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3036 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.3664, after failing 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. However, structure of price actions from 1.3664 argues that it’s probably just a corrective move. Hence, while further fall is expected, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.2863.