Market movers ahead
- We expect a rebound in US CPI inflation after the sharp fall in the March inflation print.
- German GDP growth for Q1 is likely to mirror the relatively strong euro area growth.
- We expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged but believe focus will be on its policy stance on Thursday.
- We expect Chinese inflation pressure to continue to be muted.
- In Scandinavia, focus is set to be on inflation prints and, for Sweden, the minutes of the last Riksbank meeting.
Global macro and market themes
- Political risks are fading in Europe with Emmanuel Macron likely to become the next president of France.
- Economic momentum looks strong in the euro area.
- However, PMI indicators are pointing to a softening of the economic cycles in the US and China.
- Chinese financial markets are seeing increasing stress and commodity prices have also come under pressure.
- The impact on equity prices of a softer global business cycle is likely to be offset by strong earnings growth.
