EUR/USD has started the week with small gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1310, up 0.10% on the day. Last week, the pair climbed 0.7%, its best week since mid-March. It’s quiet on the fundamentals front, with no major events out of the eurozone. In the U.S., the Empire State manufacturing index is projected to jump to 8.0 in April. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment, with a forecast of 0.9 points.
U.S. inflation numbers showed improvement in March. CPI climbed to 0.4%, its highest gain since January 2018. The producer price index also looked strong, climbing 0.6%, a 5-month high. Inflation remains well below the Federal Reserve target of 2.0%, but stronger inflation numbers will bolster the case of Fed officials who favor raising rates in 2019 if the economic outlook improves. The Fed minutes from the March meeting left the door open to further rate hikes this year, but current market pricing suggests no hikes until 2020, and some analysts are expecting a cut in rates later this year.
The markets will be keeping a close eye on German ZEW economic sentiment, a key gauge of investor confidence. The indicator has been mired in negative territory for the past 12 months, but the scores have been improving. The April estimate stands at 0..9, which although not a strong gain, is symbolic for being in positive territory. If the indicator can meet or beat the forecast, the euro could respond with gains.
