Market movers ahead
- We expect the Fed to make a dovish policy shift at the upcoming meeting.
- June PMI figures on both sides of the Atlantic will give more clues on whether the cyclical downturn continues.
- In Europe, a range of important decisions loom at the EU summit and markets will keep a close watch on monetary policy hints from the ECB’s Sintra Forum.
- The UK Conservative Party leadership contest continues, while the Bank of England meeting should not bring much news.
- We expect the Bank of Japan to keep its assessment of the economy at its meeting.
- We expect Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25%.
Weekly wrap-up
- Calls for central bank easing are getting louder both in the US and Europe.
- We published our updated global view in The Big Picture (audio recording here ).
- ECB credibility continues to be challenged with euro area (market-based) inflation expectations nose-diving.
- Trade conflicts and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on risk sentiment.
