- Some optimism percolating in Europe about an economic reopening as vaccine distribution appear to pick up.
- Optimism over the easing of UK lockdown measures continues.
- Few reasons seen for ECB to change its monetary stance at Thursday’s Governing Council meeting.
Asia
- China PBOC Vice Gov Li Bo: China would expand digital yuan experiments to more cities, but there is no specific timetable for official rollout.
- China rejected criticism of its policies by US President Biden and Japan PM Suga at their joint press conference Friday (Apr 16th), US and japan shared concerns over Chinese. activities that were inconsistent with the international rules-based order”.
- Taiwan Central Bank Gov Yang stated that saw steady economic growth in 2021 and could revise GDP Growth forecast upwards (Note: currently sees 2021 GDP at 4.5%).
- Japan Mar Trade Balance: ¥663.7B v ¥493.2Be; Adj Trade Balance: +¥297.8B v -¥212.9Be.
- Japan Feb Final Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% v -2.1% prelim; Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.6% prelim.
- New Zealand Mar Manufacturing PMI registered its 3rd month of expansion and record high (63.6 v 54.2 prior).
Coronavirus:
- Total global cases 141.1M (+1.6% vs. Fri); total deaths: 3.02M (+1.1% vs. Fri).
Europe:
- EU said not to be not satisfied with several aspects of Italy’s draft recovery plan. Italy could risk missing the April 30th deadline for submitting a final version of its Recovery Plan to the European Commission.
- Canadian ratings agency DBRS affirmed France sovereign rating at AA (high); trend Stable.
Americas:
- US Treasury semi-annual currency report saw insufficient evidence to make currency manipulation finding for Vietnam, Switzerland and Taiwan.
- More Democratic senators said to be showing concern about raising the corporate tax rate to 28% and willing to back a rise to 25%.
- US national security adviser Sullivan stated that there would be consequences for Russia if Alexei Navalny died in prison.
- Speculation that US Treasury was close to more regulation related to money laundering.
Energy:
- Iran Nuclear Negotiator noted that an understanding appeared to be emerging at the nuclear talks, but serious disagreements remained.
Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum
Equities
- Indices [Stoxx600 +0.11% at 442.96, FTSE +0.13% at 7,028.55, DAX -0.02% at 15,457.40, CAC-40 +0.23% at 6,301.46, IBEX-35 +0.38% at 8,646.00, FTSE MIB -0.20% at 24,694.50, SMI -0.27% at 11,232.31, S&P 500 Futures -0.13%].
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open mixed with upward bias and maintained that direction through the session; sectors leading to the upside include consumer discretionary and materials; sectors leading to the downside include energy and telecom; ABN Amro settles money laundering probe in The Netherlands, Danske Bank CEO steps down over allegations related to scheme; Equiniti to be acquired by Siris Capital; Melrose to sell Nortek; Ier to sell Living unit; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Coca-Cola, M&T Bank, IBM, and United Airlines.
Equities
- Consumer discretionary: Greenyard [GREEN.BE] +5% (raises outlook).
- Energy: Pantheon [PANR.UK] -44% (update on well).
- Financials: Equiniti [EQN.UK] +14% (offer).
- Industrials: Melrose [MRO.UK] +1% (divestment), CNH Industrial [CNHI.UK] -4% (terminates talks on FAW).
- Telecom: Royal KPN [KPN.NL] -1% (Huawei was able to ease drop on all conversations taking place on its network in 2010).
- Materials: Kingspan [KRX.IE] +3% (trading update).
Speakers
- UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (Fin Min) stated that was setting up a new financial market infrastructure sandbox for distributed tech. To propose easing curbs on share trading. To launch of a new taskforce for a potential Bank of England central bank digital currency.
- Poland Central Bank’s Hardt stated that the MPC should not communicate the possibility of a rate cut.
- Jailed Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny said to have been moved to a medical facility, his condition described as ‘satisfactory’.
- Turkey Treasury Dept official Elvan stated that Q1 GDP growth may be ~5%.
- US said to reject Russia’s North Korea initiative of loosening sanctions.
Currencies/Fixed Income
- USD maintained a soft tone as US bond yields drift lower in electronic trade. USD at 1-month lows while US bond yields were at 5-week lows. Greenback now facing some technical factors that could push it lower in coming sessions.
- EUR/USD moves above the 1.20 level with focus on the upcoming ECB policy decision on Thursday. Few reasons seen for ECB to change its monetary stance at Thursday’s Governing. Council meeting.
- USD/JPY lower by 0.5% at 108.25.
- GBP firmer aid by sentiment over the UK’s vaccination program. Optimism prevails that the reopening of the UK economy remain online thus schedule bolstering investor confidence.
- Bitcoin stabilized around $57K after losses from Sunday, when it plunged as much as 14% to $51,500 area.
Economic data
- (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 701.5B v 701.3B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 633.4B v 627.5B prior.
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Current Account: €25.9B v €30.5B prior.
- (PT) Portugal Feb Current Account Balance: -€0.1B v -€0.3B prior.
- (IT) Italy Feb Current Account Balance: €3.7B v €0.7B prior.
- (GR) Greece Feb Current Account Balance: -€0.8B v -€0.4B prior.
- (IS) Iceland Mar International Reserves (ISK): B v 886B prior.
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Construction Output M/M: -2.1% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: -5.8% v -2.6% prior.
- (IS) Iceland Mar International Reserves (ISK): 857B v 886B prior.
Fixed income Issuance
- None seen.
Looking Ahead
- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal) to sell 2024, 2029, 2030 and 2047 bonds.
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €6.0B in 6-month and 12-month Bubills.
- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Mar Trade Balance: No est v -$2.8B prior.
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.0% prior.
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds.
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in 2.5% 2027 Bonds.
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IGP-M Inflation (2nd Preview): 0.8%e v 3.0% prior.
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2023 and 2026 bonds.
- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Traders Survey.
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: 0.9%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.5% prior.
- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces details of upcoming issuance.
- 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Mar Annualized Housing Starts: 255.0Ke v 245.9K prior.
- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.10%.
- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.3-6.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
- 09:45 (EU) ECB weekly QE bond buying update.
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Trade Balance: -$0.7Be v -$1.0B prior; Total Imports: $3.8Be v $3.8B prior.
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Capacity Utilization: No est v 57.2% prior.
- 15:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: -2.5%e v -4.6% prior.
- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.
- 19:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 114.1 prior.
- 21:30 (CN) China PBoC Monthly Operation to set Loan Prime Rate (LPR): Expected to leave 1-Year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 3.85% and leave 5-Year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 4.65%.
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Apr Minutes.
- 21:30 (CN) China PBoC Monthly LPR Setting 1-Year Loan Prime Rate seen unchanged at 3.85% and 5-Year Loan Prime Rate seen unchanged at 4.65%.
- 23:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell 3-month bills.
- 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills.
- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 20-Year JGB Bonds.
