Inflation Moving Above ECB Target Level For The Time Being

Notes/Observations

• Various German States Apr CPI moving above ECB target range; Spain Apr prelim above level as well.
• Companies due to report during the NY morning include AllianceBernstein, Alliance Data, AGCO, Altra Industrial Motion, American Tower, Allegheny Technologies, Baxter International, Bristol-Myers, Peabody Energy, Caterpillar, Comcast, Cirrus Logic, Citrix Systems, DISH, Dominos Pizza, Generac, Hershey, IntercontinentalExchange, IMAX, International Paper, Keurig DR Pepper, Kraft Heinz, Laboratory Corporation, MasterCard, McDonald’s, Altria, Merck, Newmont, Northrop Grumman, Overstock, PG&E Corp, Parker Hannifin, Royal Caribbean, Sonic Automotive, S&P Global, SolarWinds, Molson Coors, Thermo Fisher, Tempur Sealy, LendingTree, Textron, Willis Towers Watson.

Asia

• Japan markets closed for holiday.
• South Korea May Business Manufacturing Survey hit a decade high ( 98 v 91 prior).
• Australia Treasurer Frydenberg stated that unemployment rate to recover to full employment in~2-years.
• China competition regulator said to be preparing substantial fine for Tencent (700-HK) for antitrust violations of ‘at least CNY1.54B.

Coronavirus

• Total global cases: 149.2M (+0.6% d/d); total deaths: 3.15M (+0.5% d/d).

Americas

• President Biden speech to Congress stated that the US was in competition with China and would stand up to unfair trade practices such as subsidies for state owned companies and theft of US tech and IP. Told China President Xi that US would maintain strong military presence in Indo Pacific region. Time for top 1% of earners to pay their fair shares; To instruct IRS to crackdown on Millionaires and Billionaires. Asked congress to extend Child tax credit through at least end of 2025.
• Senator Manchin (D-WV): Price of President Biden’s Family plan was uncomfortable.
• FOMC left Interest Rates unchanged between 0.00-0.25% range with the decision to hold policy being unanimous.
• Fed Chair Powell post rate decision press conference reiterated stance that not time yet” to begin discussing any change in policy.

Energy

• Chinese investors in discussion to acquire ~1% stake in Saudi Aramco, worth ~$19B.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.37% at 441.54, FTSE +0.66% at 7,009.35, DAX -0.23% at 15,256.10, CAC-40 +0.48% at 6,337.35, IBEX-35 +0.40% at 8,835.00, FTSE MIB +0.06% at 24,473.50, SMI +0.30% at 11,136.50 , S&P 500 Futures +0.64%].
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally higher and remained in the green as the session progressed; sectors among those leading to the upside are telecom and consumer discretionary; underperforming sectors include industrials and utilities; BT confirms is looking to sell Sport unit; LSE completes sale of Boursa Italiana to Euronext; Yandex acquires Acropol; Airbus CEO says seeing potential problems in supply chain; focus on US GDP figures to be released later; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Dish Networks, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Xcel Energy and Caterpillar.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Lufthansa [LHA.DE] -1% (earnings).
• Energy: Total [FP.FR] +2% (earnings), Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.NL] +2% (earnings).

Financials:

• Healthcare: Bavarian Nordic [BAVA.DK] +4% (vaccine data).
• Industrials: Airbus [AIR.FR] +2.5% (earnings), BASF [BAS.DE] -2% (earnings).
• Technology: Logitech [LOGN.CH] +2% (earnings; dividend; buyback), STMicroelectronics [STM.FR] +2.5% (earnings).
• Telecom: Nokia [NOKIA.FI] +14% (earnings).

Speakers

• ECB’s De Guindos (Spain) stated that was expecting a strong activity increase in H2. Inflation could be above 2% by end-2021 due to temporary factors. Saw moderation in inflation in 2022. Reiterated stance that best to err on the side of caution on when to begin removing stimulus.
• ECB’s Elderson (Netherlands; SSM member) stated that banks need to play pivotal role in ‘greening’ economy.
• German Constitutional Court said to rule that climate change law is only partially constitutional.
• Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Gov Kavcioglu QIR press conference reiterated stance to maintain a tight monetary policy as it would act as a buffer. Increasing global inflation expectations is putting pressure on emerging market currencies.
• Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) raised its end-2021 inflation forecast from 9.4% to.12.4% and raised the 2022 inflation from 7.0% to 7.5%.
• Russian Opposition leader Alexei Navalny said to have appeared in public for the 1st time after hunger strike.
• Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) Mar Minutes had one member note that no inflation risk seen.

Currencies/ Fixed Income

• USD remained on the defensive following Wed’s dovish Fed outtake as Fed Chair Powell’s assertion that they were not yet ready to consider scaling back pandemic support.
• EUR/USD holding above the 1.21 level but off the Asian session highs of 1.2150. Inflation data in the session was moving above ECB target level but more ECB speak played down the trend as being entrenched.

Economic data

• (NL) Netherlands Apr Producer Confidence Index: 6.5 v 3.4 prior.
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.6% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.8% prior.
• (DE) Germany Mar Import Price Index M/M: 1.8% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 6.9% v 6.0%e.
• (DK) Denmark Mar Gross Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 4.6% prior; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 4.1% v 4.2% prior.
• (ES) Spain Q1 Unemployment Rate: 16.0% v 16.5%e.
• (ES) Spain Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.2% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.9%e.
• (ES) Spain Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.1% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.7%e.
• (SE) Sweden Apr Consumer Confidence: 103.2 v 97.4 prior; Manufacturing Confidence: 121.0 v 117.7 prior; Economic Tendency Survey: 113.4 v 105.8 prior.
• (HU) Hungary Feb Average Gross Wages Y/Y: 9.8% v 9.5% prior.
• (HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance: €0.9B v €0.9B prelim.
• (TR) Turkey Apr Economic Confidence: 93.9 v 98.9 prior.
• (SE) Sweden Q1 GDP Indicator Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -1.4%e.
• (SE) Sweden Mar GDP Indicator M/M: 2.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: +3.5% v -1.1% prior.
• (SE) Sweden Mar Household Lending Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.5% prior.
• (SE) Sweden Feb Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1% prior (Dec) (none released in an).
• (DE) Germany Apr Net Unemployment Change: +9.0K v -10.0Ke; Unemployment Claims Rate: 6.0% v 6.0%e.
• (EU) Euro Zone Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.1% v 10.2%e.
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.7% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0% prior.
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Hesse M/M: 0.7% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.7% prior.
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.6% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.8% prior.
• (IT) Italy Mar Hourly Wages M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6% prior.
• (PT) Portugal Apr Consumer Confidence Index: -21.0 v -23.0 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -0.5 v -1.1 prior.
• (EU) Euro Zone Apr Economic Confidence: 110.3 v 102.1e; Industrial Confidence: 10.7 v 4.0e; Services Confidence: +2.1 v -8.7e; Consumer Confidence (final): -8.1 v -8.1 advance.
• (BE) Belgium Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: +0.6% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -4.9% prior.
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Saxony M/M: 0.8% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.7% prior.
• 05:00 (IT) Italy Mar PPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 0.7% prior.
• (GR) Greece Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -1.8% v -3.0% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -3.0% v -3.8% prior.
• (IS) Iceland Apr CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.3% prior.

Fixed income Issuance

• (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.25B in 0.125% Jun 2030 I/L bonds; Avg Yield: -1.5654% v -1.6891% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.07x v 3.15x prior.
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €7.25B vs. €6.25-7.25B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP bonds.
• Sold €2.75B vs. €2.25-2.75B indicated range in 0.50% Feb 2026 BTP bonds; Avg Yield: 0.17% v 0.05% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.43x v 1.33x prior.
• Sold €2.5B vs. €2.0-2.5B indicated range in 0.60% Aug 2031 BTP; Avg Yield: 0.88%; bid-to-cover: 1.44x (syndicated on Feb 16th 2021).
• Sold €2.0B vs. €1.5-2.0B indicated range in 0.90% Apr 2031 BTP; Avg Yield: 0.83% v 0.72% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.49x v 1.42x prior.
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €1.25B vs. €0.75-1.25B indicated range in Apr 2026 CCTeu (floating rate Notes); Avg Yield: -0.06% v -0.08% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.92x v 1.68x prior.

Looking Ahead

• (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• (BE) Belgium Apr CPI M/M: % v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.9% prior.
• (DE) Germany Apr CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: % v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.9% prior.
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Mar PPI M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.5%e v 4.0% prior.
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell debt.
• 06:00 (CA) Canada Apr CFIB Business Barometer: No est v 68.2 prior.
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Retail Sales M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -14.5% prior.
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 1.4%e v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: 31.8%e v 31.1% prior.
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.7% prior.
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.0% prior.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:30 (US) Q1 Advance GDP Annualized Q/Q: 6.9%e v 4.3% prior; Personal Consumption: 10.5%e v 2.3% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Q1 Advance GDP Price Index: 2.6%e v 2.0% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 2.4%e v 1.3% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 540Ke v 547K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.59Me v 3.674M prior.
• 08:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 4.073Te v 4.047T prior; M/M: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 4.1% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Apr 23rd: No est v $583.7B prior.
• 10:00 (US) Mar Pending Home Sales M/M: +4.4%e v -10.6% prior; Y/Y: +27.5%e v -2.7% prior.
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.
• 11:00 (US) Fed Quarles.
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-week and 8-week Bills.
• 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-year bonds.
• 13:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Central Govt Budget balance (BRL): -5.4Be v -21.2B prior.
• (AR) Argentina Apr Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 38.2 prior.
• 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand Apr Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 110.8 prior.
• 19:00 (KR) South Korea Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.5%e v +4.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 0.9% prior.
• 19:01 (UK) Apr Lloyds Business Barometer: No est v 15 prior.
• 19:30 (JP) Japan Mar Jobless Rate: 2.9%e v 2.9% prior; Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.09e v 1.09 prior.
• 19:30 (JP) Japan Apr Tokyo CPI Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Tokyo CPI (ex-fresh food) Y/Y: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Tokyo CPI (ex-fresh food/energy) Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Mar Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -2.0%e v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.6%e v -2.0% prior.
• 20:30 (JP) Japan Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 53.3 prelim.
• 21:00 (CN) China Apr Manufacturing PMI (Govt official) 51.7e v 51.9 prior; Non-manufacturing PMI: 56.0e v 56.3 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 55.3 prior.
• 21:30 (AU) Australia Mar Private Sector Credit M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 1.6% prior.
• 21:30 (AU) Australia Q1 PPI Q/Q: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.1% prior.
• 21:45 (CN) China Apr Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 50.8e v 50.6 prior.
• 22:00 (SG) Singapore Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 10.3% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 29.7% prior.
• 23:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell 3-month Bills.