The US dollar index declined slightly after the relatively disappointing US GDP and jobless claims numbers published on Thursday. The data showed that the economy expanded by 6.6% in the second quarter. While this was better than the first estimate of 6.5%, it was worse than the median estimate of 6.0%. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims rose from 349k to 353k last week. Similarly, initial jobless claims rose to more than 2.862 million. Later today, the currency will react to the latest American personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and a speech by Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium.
The Australian dollar tilted lower in the Asian session as the market reacted to the latest retail sales numbers. The data showed that the headline retail sales declined by 2.3% in July after falling by 1.8% in the previous month. This decline was worse than the median estimate of 2.3% and was attributed to the latest lockdowns. Meanwhile, data from China showed that industrial profits rose by 16.40% in July, which was lower than the previous increase of 20.0%. The profits have jumped by 57.3% year-to-date.
The economic calendar will be relatively muted today. In Germany, the statistics agency will publish the latest import and export price indices. At the same time, Sweden will release the GDP, retail sales, and consumer confidence numbers. These numbers will come a day after the statistics agency released the strong inflation data. Finally, Canada will publish the retail and industrial inflation numbers. The stock market will also be muted ahead of a speech by Jerome Powell.
EURUSD
The EURUSD price was little changed in the American and Asian sessions. The pair is trading at 1.1755, which is slightly above this week’s low of 1.1740. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly above the lower side of the ascending channel shown in yellow. It has also formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved sideways. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the upper side of the channel at 1.1780.
EURGBP
The EURGBP pair rose to a high of 0.8583, which was the highest level since August 23. This price was slightly higher than this week’s low of 0.8540. On the four-hour chart, the pair has moved above the upper line of the previous descending channel. It has also moved above the 25-day and 15-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator has moved above the neutral level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance at 0.8650.
AUDUSD
The AUDUSD pair retreated to an intraday low of 0.7220. On the hourly chart, this price was lower than this week’s high of 0.7280. It has also moved slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD has also moved below the neutral level while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been rising. Therefore, the pair may keep falling ahead of Powell’s speech.
