The Monthly CPI Indicator rose 7.3% in the year to November splitting Westpac’s 7.4%yr forecast and the market’s 7.2%yr.
The most significant contributors to the annual rise in November were housing (+9.6%yr), food & non-alcoholic beverages (+9.4%yr), transport (+9.0%yr), furniture, household equipment & services (+8.4%yr) and recreation & culture (+5.8%yr). In the month the CPI indicator gained 0.8% compared to our forecast for 0.9%.
The annual pace of the Trimmed Mean CPI Indicator lifted from 5.4%yr to 5.6%yr.
Given how close our forecast for the monthly increase we doubt this update will have a significant impact on our current forecasts for a 1.6%qtr/7.5%yr for the CPI and 1.7%qtr/6.7%yr for the Trimmed Mean.
We are processing the Monthly CPI Indicator data to incorporate it into a complete Q4 CPI preview. As this will included our estimate for December Monthly CPI Indicator it could result in some small revisions to our forecasts.
